TACO is back | Ertragssaison beeindruckt weiterhin
The episode covers Trump's backtracking on Iran ceasefire deadlines ('TACO' - Trump Always Chickens Out), Wall Street's continued resilience despite Middle East tensions, and a strong Q1 earnings season featuring standout results from GE Vernova, Boeing, and Philip Morris. The host argues that markets are increasingly pricing in de-escalation and refocusing on strong corporate fundamentals rather than geopolitical headlines.
Summary
The episode opens on April 22nd with the host introducing the 'TACO' theme — Trump Always Chickens Out — after Trump repeatedly threatened that the Iran ceasefire deadline would not be extended, only to reverse course again by allowing it to remain open indefinitely. The host notes this follows the same pattern seen around the Liberation Day tariff announcements, where Trump escalates, markets dip, and then he retreats. Reports from Axios, CNN, and the Wall Street Journal indicate Iran has been given 3-5 days to reach a deal, and that significant progress has been made in US-Iran negotiations. NBC News cautions that Iran's weapons arsenal remains substantial, while CNN notes the US has also significantly drawn down its own weapons stockpile through attacks.
Despite rising oil prices (WTI near $90), Wall Street continued to rally. The host explains this as the market pricing in de-escalation rather than further conflict, noting that Trump's lack of good escalation options is well understood by investors. Airlines and travel companies face pressure from surging fuel costs — Lufthansa is cutting nearly 20,000 flights, and TUI has already issued guidance cuts — but even these reactions have been relatively muted in equity markets.
On the technical side, the host cites Fundstrat's Mark Newton, who notes that the S&P 500's short-term uptrend remains intact above the 5,993 level, market breadth is solid, and while momentum indicators show some overheating, conditions are not extreme enough to warrant betting against the rally. Newton is bearish on oil longer-term, expecting WTI to pull back significantly into year-end after potentially reaching $96.
The earnings season is highlighted as a major positive force. GE Vernova reported blowout results with order bookings up 71%, raising full-year guidance. Boeing posted a smaller-than-expected loss with significantly better-than-expected free cash flow and a growing $695 billion order backlog. United Airlines missed Q2 EPS guidance slightly at $1.50 vs. $1.75 expected, but full-year EPS guidance of ~$9 was only $0.10 below consensus, better than feared. Philip Morris, AT&T, Intuitive Surgical, and CME Group all reported solid results. Vertiv beat on revenue (+30%) but only matched estimates, causing slight profit-taking. Capital One disappointed with higher-than-expected loan loss provisions of $4.1 billion, $300 million above estimates.
Looking ahead, the host flags ServiceNow, IBM, Tesla, Texas Instruments, and Southwest Airlines reporting that evening, SAP the next day, and a Google Cloud CEO keynote. Adobe announced a $25 billion buyback representing roughly a quarter of its market cap. Analyst upgrades include Airbnb (Wells Fargo, Buy, $178), Google (BMO Capital, Buy, $410), and SAP (HSBC, Buy, €182). United Health received multiple target price increases following strong earnings showing declining medical costs. SpaceX's reported interest in acquiring Cursor for up to $60 billion, or paying a $10 billion fee, is noted as a potential catalyst for its anticipated $2 trillion IPO.
About this episode
Die Wall Street startet nach dem kleinen Durchatmen am Vortag wieder freundlich. Gestützt wird die Erholung von der Nachricht, dass Donald Trump die Waffenruhe im Iran-Konflikt erneut verlängert. Gleichzeitig rückt die Berichtssaison zunehmend stärker in den Fokus, mit den Ergebnissen überwiegend solide. Viele Unternehmen schlagen die Erwartungen, trotz der Belastungen durch hohe Energiepreise und geopolitische Unsicherheit, auch wenn insbesondere reiseabhängige Branchen unter steigenden Kosten leiden. Zu den Highlights zählen Boeing mit besser als befürchteten Zahlen und GE Vernova sowie Vertiv, die von der anhaltend starken Nachfrage im Bereich Energie- und AI-Infrastruktur profitieren und teils sogar die Jahresziele anheben. Ebenfalls überzeugend: Intuitive Surgical und Philip Morris mit soliden Wachstumszahlen. Auf der anderen Seite steht Capital One unter Druck, da höhere Rückstellungen und schwächere Margen die Erwartungen verfehlen, während Airlines zwar operative Stärke zeigen, aber unter steigenden Treibstoffkosten leiden. Insgesamt bleibt das Marktumfeld konstruktiv, da die Kombination aus geopolitischer Entspannung und robusten Unternehmenszahlen die Stimmung stützt, auch wenn die Unsicherheit mit Blick auf den weiteren Verlauf im Nahen Osten hoch bleibt. Ein Podcast - featured by Handelsblatt. ► Direkt an der Börse handeln mit tradegate.direct: https://bit.ly/wallstreet_april * ► Erhalte einen exklusiven 15% Rabatt auf Saily eSIM Datentarife! Lade die Saily-App herunter und benutze den Code wallstreet beim Bezahlen: https://saily.com/wallstreet * ► Entdecke den exklusiven NordVPN Deal! Jetzt risikofrei testen mit einer 30-Tage-Geld-zurück-Garantie: https://nordvpn.com/wallstreet * +++ Alle Rabattcodes und Infos zu unseren Werbepartnern findet ihr hier: https://linktr.ee/wallstreet_podcast +++ ► Mehr Einblicke: https://bit.ly/360wallstreetpc * Impressum: https://www.360wallstreet.de/impressum *Werbung
Key Insights
- The host argues that Trump's repeated pattern of threatening escalation and then backing down is being interpreted by Wall Street as a structural signal of de-escalation, not just a one-off, which explains why stocks continue to rise even as oil prices climb.
- Mark Newton of Fundstrat argues the S&P 500's short-term uptrend remains technically intact and that momentum indicators, while showing some overheating, are not yet at extremes that would justify shorting the rally — he recommends waiting for clear trend deterioration signals first.
- The host observes that the current market behavior mirrors the post-Liberation Day pattern, where an initial selloff was followed by a refocus on fundamentals, suggesting the market has developed a template for processing Trump-driven volatility.
- GE Vernova's order bookings surged 71% year-over-year, which the host presents as emblematic of how Corporate America's underlying earnings power remains largely unaffected by Middle East tensions, contradicting bearish macro narratives.
- Capital One stands out as an outlier in the financial sector by reporting $300 million more in loan loss provisions than expected ($4.1 billion total), while most other major banks and credit card companies have not shown this trend, suggesting company-specific rather than sector-wide credit deterioration.
Topics
Transcript
Today is Wednesday, April 22nd. Welcome to the Opening Bell, featured by Handelsblatt. The Taco Trade. This time the weapon stock market will not be pushed. That was actually the signal from Donald Trump. And it's completely different again. Now the end of the weapon stock market remains open. The oil prices are rising, but the Wall Street is still rising. Also because it is understood that Donald Trump has no good alternatives to escalate here. He needs a relaxation of the situation. Otherwise, the reporting season is still very strong. We have GE Venova significantly on the winning side this morning. We also have Boeing in the plus after good numbers. Philip Morris also profits. With Vertiv, however, we…
Full transcript available for MurmurCast members
Sign Up to AccessMore from Wall Street mit Markus Koch - featured by Handelsblatt
Fest in den Tag | Ergebnisse überwiegend solide
This is a Friday, May 22nd Wall Street Opening Bell briefing covering positive market sentiment driven by US-Iran de-escalation hopes, strong corporate earnings from Workday, Zoom, Take-Two Interactive, Ross Stores, and Decker's Outdoor, and a preview of the upcoming holiday-shortened week with major tech earnings ahead.
Negatives Newsumfeld belastet | UAE verlässt OPEC | OpenAI unter Druck
On April 28th, markets faced multiple headwinds: the UAE announced it would leave OPEC/OPEC+ on May 1st, driving oil prices higher alongside rising US Treasury yields. The Wall Street Journal reported OpenAI missed key revenue and growth targets internally, pressuring AI stocks. Meanwhile, the Fed meeting on Wednesday could remove forward guidance on rate cuts, adding further uncertainty ahead of major tech earnings.
Super Bowl Woche der Big Tech-Earnings | US Ölindustrie boomt.
This episode of Opening Bell covers a pivotal week dubbed the 'Super Bowl of earnings,' with 180 companies reporting including Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta. The host also discusses the booming US oil industry, strong corporate earnings beating estimates, and geopolitical risks around Iran-US tensions. Key themes include robust tech investment, AI processor shifts from GPUs to CPUs, and Federal Reserve expectations.
Intel explodiert 30% | Starke Berichtssaison | Friedensgespräche am Wochenende?
On April 24th, Intel's stock surged nearly 30% after strong quarterly results, while the broader S&P 500 earnings season showed 86% of reporting companies beating estimates with an average earnings beat of 12.8%. The upcoming week promises to be even more significant with major tech giants including Google, Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft all set to report.
Aufwärts-Crash bei Chipaktien | Tesla und Software-Sektor unter Druck.
The transcript covers a market update from April 23rd focusing on a historic 38% surge in semiconductor stocks over 16 trading days, pressure on software stocks like ServiceNow and IBM, and Tesla's mixed earnings results overshadowed by a massive CapEx increase to $25 billion. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and oil prices hovering around $93-94 per barrel provide the macro backdrop.