Negatives Newsumfeld belastet | UAE verlässt OPEC | OpenAI unter Druck

The episode opens with a cluster of bearish macro developments converging on a single trading day. Most prominently, the United Arab Emirates announced it would exit OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1st, citing a changed security environment linked to the Iran conflict and a desire to navigate shifting demand conditions independently. The UAE, which produces roughly 2 million barrels per day and historically played a key diplomatic role within OPEC, will leave Saudi Arabia to assume that stabilizing function going forward.

Oil prices continued rising, compounded by reports from the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg that Iran's domestic oil storage capacity would be full within 12 to 22 days, potentially forcing production cuts that would take a long time to reverse. Simultaneously, the White House rejected Iran's latest ceasefire proposal, as Iran sought to negotiate the opening of the Strait of Hormuz before addressing nuclear issues — a sequencing the US did not accept. Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecasts through year-end, suggesting the disruption would last longer than the market had assumed.

US Treasury yields also moved higher, partly due to weak demand at yesterday's 2- and 5-year bond auctions. The Wall Street Journal additionally reported that the Federal Reserve, at its Wednesday meeting, may remove language hinting at potential 2026 rate cuts from its statement. The host noted that historically, markets tend to underperform in the early months following a new Fed chair's appointment, with upward pressure on long-duration yields — a dynamic that could play out again as Kevin Warsh is widely expected to succeed Jerome Powell and would likely want to establish his independence by avoiding rate cuts.

On the corporate side, the Wall Street Journal reported from internal OpenAI documents that the company missed key revenue and growth targets, with CFO Sarah Fryer demanding greater cost discipline internally. There is also concern that funding future infrastructure could become harder under weaker growth conditions. This weighed on SoftBank shares (down ~10% overnight) and Oracle, both closely tied to the OpenAI ecosystem.

Corning's earnings also added pressure to the AI sector: while results were not bad in absolute terms, the company's Q2 revenue outlook only met — rather than beat — expectations, and the midpoint of its earnings guidance came in 1 cent below Wall Street's estimate of $0.76 per share. Given the extremely elevated expectations priced into AI-related stocks after an 18-session winning streak, any imperfection was enough to trigger profit-taking.

Among other earnings: Coca-Cola posted strong organic revenue growth of 10% (vs. 7% expected) and beat on EPS and margins, but the full-year organic growth outlook remained unchanged at 4.5% midpoint — the raise in annual guidance was driven primarily by lower tax rates rather than stronger demand. GM reported very strong numbers but the stock barely moved. Sherwin-Williams and Kimberly-Clark were on the winners' side. Spotify fell ~10% due to Q2 operating margin guidance of 13.1% vs. the expected 14.3%. UPS dropped ~8% on margin disappointment. JetBlue was pressured by surging fuel costs, with management emphasizing they have $2.4 billion in liquidity to weather the period.

Looking ahead, the host highlighted that the major earnings event is Wednesday evening, when Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Qualcomm, and KLA all report. Ford reports the same day, facing a high bar after GM's results. Chipotle will be watched as a consumer bellwether after weak Domino's Pizza results and KeyBank warning that Dollar Tree customer traffic is cooling — particularly among lower-income consumers hit hard by rising gas and oil prices.

On analyst commentary: Mitsuo raised its Amazon price target to $325; DA Davidson raised its Micron target to $1,000 (from the current ~$508), which the host described with sharp skepticism as reminiscent of late-1990s excess. Citigroup trimmed its Palantir target to $210 but maintained a buy. Meta separately announced it is abandoning its planned $2 billion acquisition of Singapore-based AI startup Manus after Chinese regulators blocked the deal. A Gallup poll cited by Axios showed American consumer financial sentiment is at its lowest in 25 years, consistent with University of Michigan consumer confidence data.