Lage bleibt bullish | Solide Quartalszahlen | Apple und Amazon im Fokus

The episode opens on April 21st with a broadly stable but slightly positive market, where the Dow Jones is buoyed primarily by United Health's strong quarterly results. Despite ongoing Iran-related tensions, the earnings season is described as very strong, with S&P 500 companies beating EPS estimates by an average of 8% — particularly notable given an overall expected earnings growth of 12% for Q1. Morgan Stanley's analysis highlights projected EPS growth of 12% in Q1, rising to 16%, 21%, and 19% in subsequent quarters, with expanding profit margins as a key driver beyond just revenue growth.

On the AI and tech front, the Magnificent Seven are expected to deliver 25% earnings growth this year, while the broader S&P 493 is catching up, with projected EPS growth rising from 3% in 2024 to 15% by 2027 — suggesting a broadening of the rally beyond mega-cap tech. The speaker emphasizes that Micron alone accounts for roughly 50% of estimated S&P profit revisions since the Iran war began.

Apple's biggest news is the announcement that Tim Cook will step down as CEO on September 1st after 15 years, transitioning to Chairman of the Board. His successor, John Ternus — Apple's hardware chief for the past five years — was widely anticipated as a candidate, though the timing was earlier than expected. Analysts at Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, and JP Morgan all maintain buy ratings with price targets around $215–$315, framing the transition as orderly and positive. Morgan Stanley notes that appointing a hardware specialist signals Apple's continued strategic self-identity, while also seeing potential for renewed optimism around AI implementation.

Amazon announced an additional $25 billion investment in Anthropic (on top of prior commitments), with $5 billion deployed immediately. In return, Anthropic will invest $100 billion in Amazon Web Services infrastructure over the next 10 years, including proprietary chips. This deal is expected to accelerate AWS growth and strengthens Amazon's position in the AI ecosystem. Marvell Technology is flagged as a secondary beneficiary, with RBC Capital raising its price target from $115 to $170.

On the Iran situation, diplomatic talks between the US and Iran are expected to resume on Wednesday in Pakistan, led by Vice President Vance. The speaker argues that Trump has strong political incentives to de-escalate — poor midterm approval ratings and high energy prices make peace a necessity. Despite elevated oil prices and volatility, the equity market's resilience (with gains in transport stocks, software, banks, and small caps) signals that Wall Street is pricing in de-escalation.

For the Fed, Kevin Warsh's confirmation hearing as Fed Chair nominee is set for later that day. The speaker anticipates Warsh will signal a dovish lean — framing energy price inflation as temporary, highlighting AI-driven productivity gains as justification for continued rate cuts, and carefully managing expectations around balance sheet reduction to avoid spooking bond markets.

Among individual earnings highlights: United Health showed clear turnaround signs with improving Medical Cost Ratio and raised guidance; GE Aerospace posted strong bookings (+90% YoY to $23B) but the stock weakened; 3M and Northrop Grumman beat estimates but only confirmed full-year guidance, disappointing the market; RTX raised guidance and saw its stock rise. Airlines like Alaska Air face severe headwinds from surging jet fuel costs (~$600M in additional expenses). The episode closes with analyst upgrades for CrowdStrike (KeyBank, Buy, $525), Intel (HSBC, raised to Buy, $95 target after a 260% rally), Meta (UBS, $908 target), and PayPal (BofA, $55 target, Hold).