Could we interest you in $675bn in tech stocks?

The episode opens by framing the current IPO market as a 'feeding frenzy,' noting that 40 US deals worth $28 billion have already hit the market by end of May 2025 — the highest tally since the banner year of 2021. Goldman Sachs projects $225 billion in new IPO volume and up to $675 billion when including follow-on issuances and secondary offerings, against a total US stock market cap of roughly $75 trillion.

The hosts focus on three major upcoming AI-related listings: Anthropic (which filed paperwork for a $1 trillion+ valuation IPO), SpaceX (valued at $1.75 trillion but only listing $75 billion worth, or about 4% of itself), and OpenAI. They note that these companies have remained private far longer than previous generations of tech firms, raising questions about how much value has already been extracted by private investors before public markets get access.

Alphabet (Google's parent) also draws attention for announcing an $80 billion secondary stock offering despite already being a $4+ trillion company. The hosts argue this is rational given the stock's near-doubling since March 2025, allowing the company to raise cheap equity capital to fund its massive data center buildout. However, the stock dropped roughly 2.5% on the news, suggesting markets are sensitive to dilution even at these levels.

The dot-com bubble parallel is discussed at length. Katie raises the concern that heavy IPO activity historically coincides with market tops, while Rob pushes back by noting that unlike Pets.com or Webvan, today's AI companies have demonstrated real and rapidly growing revenues. However, both acknowledge open questions about AI business model sustainability, pricing power once discounts end, and how commoditized AI services may become.

A structural risk highlighted is the expiration of insider lock-up periods. Goldman Sachs estimates an additional $500 billion in shares could hit the market as lock-ups expire, mirroring a dynamic that coincided with the dot-com crash. Rob argues that insider selling doesn't necessarily signal bearishness — wealthy early employees may simply be diversifying — while Katie maintains it warrants scrutiny.

Rob's broader macro concern is the growing divergence between a weakening consumer economy (with real income growth near zero or slightly negative) and a booming technology investment cycle, warning this imbalance resembles China's investment-driven growth model, which carries its own risks. Both hosts conclude that animal spirits are strong, the market will likely absorb the new supply, but fragility is building and the situation warrants close monitoring.