Software Winners & Losers in the Age of AI (w/Alex Rubalcava & Paul Bricault) | #626
Alex Rubalcava and Paul Bricault discuss the current state of software companies amid AI disruption, their venture fund Amplify LA's pre-seed investment strategy, and how AI is transforming enterprise software through increased productivity and workflow automation. They share specific examples of portfolio companies leveraging AI and discuss which types of software businesses are most vulnerable to displacement.
Summary
This episode features Alex Rubalcava (formerly of Stage Venture Capital) and Paul Bricault from Amplify LA discussing the impact of AI on software companies and their pre-seed investment approach. They begin by addressing concerns about public software companies, with Rubalcava arguing that mission-critical software touching money, regulation, or physical assets will survive, while 'nice-to-have' products face displacement risk. The guests explain Amplify LA's focus on pre-seed enterprise software investments, typically $2-3 million rounds, with about 50% in Southern California. They emphasize investing in companies with defensible moats like proprietary data, regulatory barriers, or physical constraints that make them harder to disrupt. The conversation covers numerous AI adoption examples from their portfolio, including Placer's AI front-end for foot traffic data that saved a multimillion-dollar real estate deal, and Trace's use of AI agents to replace 39 out of 40 SDRs and CSRs while growing revenue 50%. They discuss concerning job displacement effects, particularly for entry-level positions in data analysis, customer service, and basic content creation. The guests share investment stories including pivots (like a hologram company becoming a 3D file conversion service) and outline their approach to taking profits from successful investments through secondary sales when companies hit 10x returns. They conclude by discussing QSBS tax benefits for early-stage investors and the importance of building networks for pre-seed sourcing, as AI tools don't work well for finding companies that haven't been announced yet.
About this episode
Today’s guests are Alex Rubalcava and Paul Bricault of Amplify.LA, a pre-seed venture capital firm. In today’s episode, Alex and Paul break down the opportunities and challenges AI is creating for both startups and investors. They discuss the changing economics of software, what makes an AI company defensible, where investors are finding opportunity in frontier sectors, and why speed matters more than ever in early-stage investing. To close, they explore startup pivots and the tax advantages of QSBS. (0:00) Starts (1:27) Introducing Alex and Paul (2:02) Public software companies & AI (5:13) Amplify LA background and partnership formation (7:34) AI use cases in portfolio companies (15:08) AI's impact on the job market (30:31) AI's impact on investment opportunities at the pre-seed stage (41:02) Aerospace sector opportunities (44:32) Successful startup pivots (50:18) Liquidity in VC (55:28) QSBS impact ----- Sponsor: Alpha Architect - To learn more about CAOS, read the Fund's prospectus and important information, visit funds.alphaarchitect.com/caos ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at [email protected] ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! -----Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Key Insights
- Rubalcava argues that software companies serving as systems of record or touching money, regulation, and physical assets will survive AI disruption better than 'nice-to-have' products
- Portfolio companies are reporting 4-5x increases in engineering productivity and code output within 100 days of adopting advanced AI tools
- One portfolio company reduced staff from 40 SDRs/CSRs to 2 while growing revenue 50% by implementing AI agents for sales and customer service
- Placer's AI front-end enabled a customer to create a presentation in 90 minutes that would have taken three weeks, saving a multimillion-dollar real estate transaction
- Pre-seed round sizes have doubled from $1-2 million to $2-3 million over the past two years, with some extreme outliers reaching $100 million for foundational model companies
- The guests observe a decoupling of revenue growth from expense growth, with many portfolio companies growing revenue multiples without increasing headcount
- Entry-level jobs in data analytics, customer service, content creation, and basic legal work are disappearing rapidly, creating challenges for college graduates
- AI tools are shifting the balance from outbound sales effectiveness to inbound marketing effectiveness as automated outreach floods the market
- The firm focuses on investments with proprietary data advantages, regulatory constraints, or physical world integration as defensive moats against AI disruption
- Companies that adopted AI tools show significantly higher revenue growth according to recent data from fintech company Ramp
- The programming language for most software has effectively become English as AI enables natural language interfaces and workflow customization
- Pre-seed investing remains more defensible against AI tools compared to later-stage investing because early companies often aren't publicly known or trackable by AI systems
Topics
Transcript
Welcome to the MedFaber show, where the focus is on helping you grow and preserve your wealth. Join us as we discuss the craft of investing and uncover new and profitable ideas, all to help you grow wealthier and wiser. Better investing starts here. MedFaber is the co-founder and chief investment officer at Cambria Investment Management. Due to industry regulations, he will not discuss any of Cambria's funds on this podcast. All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of Cambria Investment Management or its affiliates. For more information, visit cambrianvestments.com. What would you do if markets dropped over 30% in a matter of weeks? That's exactly what happened in March…
Full transcript available for MurmurCast members
Sign Up to AccessMore from The Meb Faber Show - Better Investing
Paul Kedrosky: AI is the First Bubble With Every Ingredient at Once | #648
Paul Kedrosky argues that AI represents the first financial bubble combining all historical bubble ingredients simultaneously—loose credit, transformative technology, real estate (data centers), and policy support. He contends that AI financing has shifted from internal cash flows to external debt, creating structural economic pressures where frontier AI companies must grow 400% annually just to maintain flat revenues amid 70-80% annual token price deflation.
Jerry Parker on Big Game Hunting in the Market | #647
Jerry Parker, founder of Chesapeake Capital and original Turtle trader, discusses pure trend following strategy, explaining how it differs from managed futures and CTAs, emphasizing the importance of letting winners run while taking small losses, and why individual stock selection outperforms index-only approaches for trend followers.
David Booth: 45 Years to $1 Trillion at Dimensional | #646
David Booth, founder of Dimensional Fund Advisors, discusses his 45-year journey building a $1 trillion asset management firm grounded in academic research from Gene Fama and others. He reflects on early challenges including a brutal nine-year period where small-cap stocks underperformed, the importance of maintaining conviction in sensible investment processes despite short-term disappointment, and how investor behavior—particularly the tendency to sell after underperformance—remains the greatest obstacle to long-term wealth building.
Luke Gromen: The Bull Market That Loses You Money | #645
Luke Gromen discusses a major policy shift toward Hamiltonian economics (tariffs, protectionism, domestic industry protection) replacing 40 years of neoliberal globalization, with profound implications for asset allocation, inflation, gold, bonds, and real returns. He argues real rates must turn deeply negative to manage 120% debt-to-GDP, making traditional 60/40 portfolios vulnerable while gold, commodities, and selective equities positioned outside the U.S. become critical hedges.
Cambria Fund Profile – Cambria Global Value ETF (GVAL)
Matt Faber discusses the Cambria Global Value ETF (GVAL), which invests in undervalued stocks across 45 developed and emerging markets, emphasizing that market leadership rotates and diversification protects against concentration risk in expensive U.S. mega-cap stocks. The fund returned approximately 55% in 2025 by capturing opportunities in neglected global markets while the valuation gap between U.S. and international stocks remains at historic highs.