The Meb Faber Show - Better Investing

Paul Kedrosky argues that AI represents the first financial bubble combining all historical bubble ingredients simultaneously—loose credit, transformative technology, real estate (data centers), and policy support. He contends that AI financing has shifted from internal cash flows to external debt, creating structural economic pressures where frontier AI companies must grow 400% annually just to maintain flat revenues amid 70-80% annual token price deflation.

Jerry Parker, founder of Chesapeake Capital and original Turtle trader, discusses pure trend following strategy, explaining how it differs from managed futures and CTAs, emphasizing the importance of letting winners run while taking small losses, and why individual stock selection outperforms index-only approaches for trend followers.

David Booth, founder of Dimensional Fund Advisors, discusses his 45-year journey building a $1 trillion asset management firm grounded in academic research from Gene Fama and others. He reflects on early challenges including a brutal nine-year period where small-cap stocks underperformed, the importance of maintaining conviction in sensible investment processes despite short-term disappointment, and how investor behavior—particularly the tendency to sell after underperformance—remains the greatest obstacle to long-term wealth building.

Luke Gromen discusses a major policy shift toward Hamiltonian economics (tariffs, protectionism, domestic industry protection) replacing 40 years of neoliberal globalization, with profound implications for asset allocation, inflation, gold, bonds, and real returns. He argues real rates must turn deeply negative to manage 120% debt-to-GDP, making traditional 60/40 portfolios vulnerable while gold, commodities, and selective equities positioned outside the U.S. become critical hedges.

Matt Faber discusses the Cambria Global Value ETF (GVAL), which invests in undervalued stocks across 45 developed and emerging markets, emphasizing that market leadership rotates and diversification protects against concentration risk in expensive U.S. mega-cap stocks. The fund returned approximately 55% in 2025 by capturing opportunities in neglected global markets while the valuation gap between U.S. and international stocks remains at historic highs.

Liaquat Ahamed discusses his new book "1873," examining the world's first truly global financial crisis triggered by railroad speculation, silver demonetization, and the resulting 20-year deflation. He draws parallels between 19th-century boom-bust cycles, populist backlash, and anti-Semitic conspiracy theories with modern financial crises and contemporary economic challenges.

Bob Robotti, founder and CIO of Robotti & Company Advisors, discusses his 43-year investment philosophy centered on identifying misunderstood fundamentals and improving business economics, with particular focus on 'zombie stocks' in undervalued sectors like energy, homebuilding, and small-cap industrials that he believes will outperform as market conditions normalize.

Carson Block, founder of Muddy Waters Research, discusses how AI-driven displacement of knowledge workers could trigger a significant unwinding of the S&P 500 through declining 401k flows and aggregate demand destruction, while also explaining his evolution from pure short-seller activism to a diversified investment approach including long positions in momentum strategies and junior mining.

Dr. Joseph Moore discusses his book on 300 years of American financial history, arguing that historical financial advice varies dramatically by era due to changing fundamentals like currency stability and inflation. He emphasizes that real estate builds modest fortunes rather than great wealth, stocks didn't always beat bonds historically, and the best path to riches involves solving other people's problems rather than optimizing personal consumption.

Rebecca Anderson from McKinsey Global Institute discusses America's 250-year economic dominance, attributing it to natural resources, entrepreneurial culture, and supporting institutions. She outlines challenges ahead including labor force adaptation to AI, infrastructure bottlenecks, national debt, manufacturing capacity gaps, and wealth inequality, while highlighting recent positive indicators like foreign direct investment and productivity growth.

Ben Carlson discusses long-term investing principles, market history, and behavioral finance, emphasizing that there is no holy grail investment strategy and that rules-based investing helps overcome emotional decision-making. He uses historical case studies like Japan's bubble and the 1970s stagflation to illustrate how market cycles repeat and why time horizon matters more than perfect market timing.

Meb Faber discusses his new coffee table book "Investing in America: The Rise of a 250-Year Bull Market," which visualizes 225 years of U.S. stock market history through charts and analysis to demonstrate that despite periodic crises and volatility, long-term stock investing has consistently created wealth. The book aims to educate young investors with perspective on market cycles and historical context for current market concerns.

Dr. Bryan Taylor, founder of Global Financial Data, discusses his TWIG framework (Trade, War, Inflation, Government) for analyzing historical market returns across centuries. He argues there is no persistent equity risk premium, warns about the 2030s based on a 30-year cycle pattern, and draws on global financial history to contextualize current U.S. market conditions.

Meb Faber interviews Charlie Ellis, founder of Greenwich Associates and author of 'Great American Investments,' covering Ellis's career highlights including his pioneering work on share buybacks, his famous 'Loser's Game' indexing thesis, and his new book profiling 14 bold public investments that shaped America. The conversation spans topics from long-term investing principles to historical government initiatives like the Louisiana Purchase, Social Security, and the GI Bill.

Yale finance professor William Goetzmann discusses 5,000 years of financial history with Meb Faber, tracing the origins of compound interest, corporations, bonds, and stock market bubbles from ancient Babylon to modern markets. Goetzmann argues that financial innovation has been essential to civilization's development, and draws parallels between historical speculative manias and modern phenomena like NFTs and SpaceX. He concludes with insights on behavioral finance, long-term investing, and the resilience of equity markets through historical crises.

Meb Faber joins a podcast during Berkshire Week in Omaha to discuss investment philosophy, global diversification, shareholder yield, and the ETF industry. He argues that Warren Buffett's public advice to invest in the S&P 500 doesn't reflect how Buffett actually invested, and that a more sophisticated, globally diversified approach is optimal. He also covers behavioral finance pitfalls, the importance of tax efficiency, and the proliferation of ETF products.

Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, discusses his bullish market outlook with a S&P target of 7,700 for 2026, while warning of potential mid-year turbulence tied to a new Fed chair. He covers topics including oil market dislocations, sentiment survey distortions, crypto adoption, and the success of his Granny Shots ETF.

PIMCO's CIO of Non-Traditional Strategies Marc Seidner argues that fixed income offers one of the best investment setups in years, with high-quality intermediate-duration portfolios yielding around 7%. He expresses concern about economically sensitive credit sectors, private credit deterioration, and the K-shaped economy, while advocating for global diversification across bonds, equities, and real assets.

Sam Hartzmark, a finance professor at Boston College, discusses widespread misconceptions about dividends, particularly the 'free dividends fallacy' where investors mistakenly believe stock prices don't drop when dividends are paid. He explains how this misunderstanding drives irrational investor behavior, distorts markets, and is exploited by financial product providers. The conversation also touches on sustainable investing research and prediction markets.

Will Guidara, former co-owner of 11 Madison Park and author of 'Unreasonable Hospitality,' discusses the distinction between service and hospitality, arguing that intentional and creative relationship-building is the greatest competitive advantage available to any business or individual. He shares practical frameworks for building hospitality cultures, including systemizing graciousness, empowering employees, and learning from unexpected industries. He also previews his companion Field Guide, which translates the 'why' of his first book into actionable 'how' steps.