Here's why OpenAI might delay their IPO
The speaker discusses OpenAI's likely IPO timeline, predicting it will occur before the second half of 2027, probably in Q3/Q4 2026 or Q1/Q2 2027. Multiple business initiatives (super app, ads, hardware) must succeed and the executive team may need restructuring for the IPO to proceed, though the speaker views it as inevitable given the company's substantial funding.
Summary
The speaker expresses confidence that OpenAI will eventually go public, despite potential obstacles that could delay or complicate the process. Key uncertainties include the performance of Anthropic's ARR, the viability of OpenAI's super app strategy, success of their advertising business model, and hardware initiatives. The speaker also notes that executive team restructuring may be necessary before an IPO. However, the speaker believes these challenges won't prevent an IPO from occurring, viewing it as the natural endpoint given OpenAI's substantial capital raises. The timing is expected to be sometime in 2026 (Q3 or Q4) or early 2027 (Q1 or Q2), with the speaker expressing shock if it were delayed to the second half of 2027. The discussion also touches on SpaceX as a comparative case study, noting its massive IPO pop followed by a significant decline in stock price. The speaker mentions SpaceX currently trades at a $2.16 trillion valuation and questions whether this represents a good outcome relative to the company's revenue, while acknowledging that Sam Altman may have been influenced by SpaceX's IPO experience and subsequent performance in forming OpenAI's approach to going public.
Key Insights
- The speaker believes OpenAI must eventually go public because the company has raised too much capital, making an IPO the natural endpoint of its funding trajectory
- Multiple critical initiatives must succeed for OpenAI's IPO story to remain intact: the super app strategy, advertising business, hardware products, and potentially executive team changes
- The speaker predicts OpenAI's IPO will occur before the second half of 2027, most likely in Q3/Q4 2026 or Q1/Q2 2027, with would be shocked by any delay beyond that timeframe
- Sam Altman's IPO strategy may have been influenced by SpaceX's experience, which saw a massive stock pop on IPO day followed by a subsequent crash, potentially making OpenAI leadership cautious about public markets
- OpenAI plans to conduct an employee tender offer soon as an interim liquidity event before pursuing a full IPO
Topics
Transcript
[0:00] I would be shocked if it was in the second half of 2027. Anthropics ARR could crater and then the story is not there. OpenAI super app thing could not work. Ads could not work. The hardware could not work. May need to redo the executive bench, right? There's there's a lot of things that they have to get through. I do think they will IPO. I would be shocked if it was in the second half of 2027. I think it will be before that, whether that's Q3, Q4 or Q1, Q2 next year. But we are going to get an IPO because you kind of have to. They've raised too much money. I mean, this is the…
Full transcript available for MurmurCast members
Sign Up to AccessMore from Prof G Markets
Scott Galloway: no one talks about the irony of Cannes in 2026
Scott Galloway highlights the irony that while the advertising and media industry gathers at Cannes, they fail to recognize that creators—not traditional industry players—have become the true celebrities and protagonists. The creator economy is experiencing significant growth with spending increasingly distributed across nano and micro-influencers rather than concentrated among top earners.
Tom Lee on Scott Galloway's 2026 stock pick
Tom Lee identifies Amazon as his top tech stock pick for 2026, arguing that the company's massive robotics advantage (1 million robots vs. 400,000 combined for the rest of the nation) positions it to capture significant shareholder value from AI-driven automation and industrial robots. Scott Galloway extends this thesis by proposing Amazon could expand beyond logistics into residential construction and home delivery, potentially doubling its total addressable market.
Tom Lee just bought $40M of Ethereum (when it's down almost 50% in 6 months)
Tom Lee explains why his firm Bitmine purchased $40M in Ethereum despite the cryptocurrency being down significantly from its highs. He argues that blockchain's proven track record of secure, trustless transactions and its emerging role in replacing legacy financial infrastructure make crypto a sound investment, particularly as AI agents increasingly control wealth.
4 years of double digit gains
2026 is tracking to be the fourth consecutive year of double-digit market gains, driven primarily by earnings growth rather than valuation expansion. Despite the market being up 9% year-to-date, valuations have actually compressed as 2027 S&P 500 earnings estimates rose from $350 to $400, with tailwinds from AI infrastructure, onshoring trends, and government spending.
Tom Lee's Case for S&P 8,000 Has One Big Catch
Tom Lee raises his S&P 500 target to 8,000 by year-end based on strong earnings growth, but warns of a significant correction in the fall before a V-shaped recovery. He discusses risks including the new Fed chair's policy changes, IPO unlocks, margin debt levels, and questions about the quality of earnings driving AI-related stock gains.