Tom Lee on Scott Galloway's 2026 stock pick
Tom Lee identifies Amazon as his top tech stock pick for 2026, arguing that the company's massive robotics advantage (1 million robots vs. 400,000 combined for the rest of the nation) positions it to capture significant shareholder value from AI-driven automation and industrial robots. Scott Galloway extends this thesis by proposing Amazon could expand beyond logistics into residential construction and home delivery, potentially doubling its total addressable market.
Summary
In this discussion, Tom Lee presents Amazon as his stock pick for outperforming in the coming year, grounding his thesis in two primary areas where AI shareholder value creation will materialize: autonomous systems and industrialized robots. Lee emphasizes Amazon's substantial competitive advantage in robotics infrastructure, citing the company's deployment of approximately 1 million industrial robots compared to only 400,000 combined across all other companies in the nation.
Lee frames Amazon fundamentally as a logistics company, which he argues naturally positions it to benefit from advances in robotics and automation. Scott Galloway builds on this analysis by proposing a more expansive vision of Amazon's potential addressable market. He suggests that Amazon's robotics capabilities could enable it to enter adjacent markets such as residential and office construction delivery, with robots serving as autonomous agents capable of performing carpentry and assembly work. This expansion would potentially double Amazon's total addressable market by extending beyond traditional logistics into the entire residential and office construction market.
The discussion highlights how technological capabilities (robotics infrastructure) combined with existing operational expertise (logistics) could create significant new revenue opportunities and shareholder value creation.
Key Insights
- Amazon possesses 1 million industrial robots while the rest of the nation combined has only 400,000, creating a substantial competitive moat in robotics infrastructure
- Tom Lee identifies industrialized robots and autonomous systems as the two primary areas where AI shareholder value creation will materialize according to hype
- Amazon's core identity as a logistics company naturally positions it to benefit from and deploy robotics and automation at scale
- Scott Galloway proposes Amazon could expand into residential and office construction markets using its robots as autonomous agents for carpentry and assembly work
- Galloway argues that expanding Amazon's serviceable market to include residential and office construction could potentially double the company's total addressable market
Topics
Transcript
[0:00] Every year we try and pick one of the big tech companies that outperform and the the one that I'm most interested in this year is Amazon. Our thesis is that where AI shareholder value creation lives up to the hype is in one autonomous specifically Whimo but two industrialized robots and Amazon has a million industrialized robots and the rest of the nation has 400,000 combined. Do you think Amazon will benefit from that great sort of robotics age? >> 100% Scott. They're a logistics company, right? they could probably deliver homes [0:30] and then their robots could be the carpenters and agents putting it all together. All of a sudden their TAM is like, you know, doubled…
Full transcript available for MurmurCast members
Sign Up to AccessMore from Prof G Markets
Scott Galloway: no one talks about the irony of Cannes in 2026
Scott Galloway highlights the irony that while the advertising and media industry gathers at Cannes, they fail to recognize that creators—not traditional industry players—have become the true celebrities and protagonists. The creator economy is experiencing significant growth with spending increasingly distributed across nano and micro-influencers rather than concentrated among top earners.
Tom Lee just bought $40M of Ethereum (when it's down almost 50% in 6 months)
Tom Lee explains why his firm Bitmine purchased $40M in Ethereum despite the cryptocurrency being down significantly from its highs. He argues that blockchain's proven track record of secure, trustless transactions and its emerging role in replacing legacy financial infrastructure make crypto a sound investment, particularly as AI agents increasingly control wealth.
4 years of double digit gains
2026 is tracking to be the fourth consecutive year of double-digit market gains, driven primarily by earnings growth rather than valuation expansion. Despite the market being up 9% year-to-date, valuations have actually compressed as 2027 S&P 500 earnings estimates rose from $350 to $400, with tailwinds from AI infrastructure, onshoring trends, and government spending.
Tom Lee's Case for S&P 8,000 Has One Big Catch
Tom Lee raises his S&P 500 target to 8,000 by year-end based on strong earnings growth, but warns of a significant correction in the fall before a V-shaped recovery. He discusses risks including the new Fed chair's policy changes, IPO unlocks, margin debt levels, and questions about the quality of earnings driving AI-related stock gains.
This is very bad for the AI bubble
Meta's reported plan to sell excess AI compute capacity signals a major shift in strategy and indicates the company overbought computing resources. Analysts view this as a negative signal for the AI industry, suggesting companies like Meta made excessive infrastructure investments without clear monetization paths.