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The Smart Money are Making Some Very Big Moves...

New Money

The video analyzes the latest 13F SEC filings from major investment managers, highlighting significant moves by Warren Buffett/Greg Abel (Berkshire Hathaway), Bill Ackman (Pershing Square), and Seth Klarman (Baupost). Key themes include large purchases of Google, Microsoft, and Amazon, as well as a notable culling of 16 positions from the Berkshire portfolio. The presenter uses Simply Wall Street data to assess valuations and contextualize each investment decision.

Summary

The video opens by explaining that 13F filings are quarterly SEC disclosures required of investment managers with over $100 million in assets under management, and that these documents reveal the current holdings of top value investors. The presenter frames this particular round of filings as unusually eventful, given that markets are near all-time highs and major moves are rarely seen in such conditions.

The biggest story highlighted is Berkshire Hathaway tripling its position in Google (Alphabet), adding a $1 billion position in C-shares while the A-share position grew to $15.6 billion, making it Berkshire's seventh-largest holding. The presenter questions whether this was driven by Warren Buffett or new CEO Greg Abel, noting that Buffett has acknowledged technology companies are outside his circle of competence and that Abel now has final decision-making authority. The rationale offered is that Google is a 'wonderful company at a fair price' — strong revenue and earnings growth, a rock-solid balance sheet with more cash than debt, and a meaningful presence in AI through Gemini. However, the presenter notes Google trades at roughly 17% overvalued per discounted cash flow analysis with a P/E of around 30, making it a quality-at-fair-price rather than a deep value play.

Also from the Berkshire portfolio: a $2.6 billion new position in Delta Airlines was noted, along with a 35% reduction in Chevron. Most strikingly, Berkshire sold out of 16 positions entirely in a single quarter — something the presenter says they've never seen before. The presenter hypothesizes this was a combination of Greg Abel doing 'spring cleaning' as new CEO and the unwinding of positions built by departing portfolio manager Todd Combs, whose smaller bets (including Visa, Mastercard, Domino's, and Amazon) were largely exited.

Bill Ackman's Pershing Square opened a $2 billion position in Microsoft, making it the fourth-largest holding in their US portfolio. The presenter notes Microsoft's free cash flow is declining due to massive AI infrastructure spending, which has spooked many investors and caused the stock to fall up to 25% in Q1. However, Ackman — whom the presenter heard speak at Value X in Omaha — does not view the capex spending as a problem. At a P/E of 25 and 27% undervalued per Simply Wall Street's DCF model, the presenter frames this as a classic value investor move: buying a high-quality business during a fear-driven selloff. Notably, Ackman also sold nearly his entire Google position this quarter, going in the opposite direction to Berkshire, and added 20% to his Amazon position.

Seth Klarman of Baupost, author of 'Margin of Safety,' increased his Amazon position by 47%, making it his largest holding at 12.7% of his US portfolio. The presenter highlights that Amazon dropped 18% in a single week in early February after announcing roughly $200 billion in 2026 capital expenditures for AI and AWS infrastructure. The presenter argues this reaction was irrational — voluntary capex increases are not a fundamental problem, and the spending can be paused. Amazon's subsequent Q1 earnings confirmed AWS growth was stronger than expected and that they were supply-constrained, not demand-constrained, validating Klarman and Ackman's opportunistic buying.

Additional notes include: Li Lu of Himalaya Capital sold 71% of his Bank of America position; Mohnish Pabrai sold out of Aris and reduced Trans Ocean by 25% while maintaining his metallurgical coal bet; Bill Ackman finally sold out of Hilton after holding it since 2018; and Howard Marks opened a tiny $493,000 position in Pinduoduo out of a $4 billion portfolio — which the presenter dismisses as not particularly significant.

The video closes with promotion of two Simply Wall Street portfolios the presenter assembled — one for notable super investor buys and one for sells — and a personal thank-you to viewers who purchased the presenter's book on the Buffett investing approach.

Key Insights

  • The presenter argues that Berkshire's culling of 16 positions in a single quarter — many of them 'Todd stocks' built by departing manager Todd Combs — is likely a combination of Greg Abel doing spring cleaning as new CEO and the unwinding of Combs' legacy portfolio, rather than any single strategic thesis.
  • The presenter contends that Amazon's 18% single-week drop following its $200 billion capex announcement was fundamentally irrational, arguing that a voluntary increase in growth-oriented capital expenditures is not a death sentence and that the spending can simply be paused if conditions change.
  • The presenter notes that Bill Ackman — having heard him speak at Value X in Omaha — explicitly does not view Microsoft's declining free cash flow due to AI infrastructure spending as a problem, and used the stock's 25% Q1 decline to load up on shares at a P/E of 25, which Simply Wall Street's DCF model flags as 27% undervalued.
  • The presenter raises the question of whether Warren Buffett actually drove Berkshire's tripled Google position, suggesting it may have been Greg Abel's decision given that Buffett has repeatedly stated large-cap tech companies are outside his circle of competence and that Abel now holds final decision-making authority.
  • The presenter observes that Seth Klarman timed his 47% increase in Amazon almost perfectly to the February dip, and that Amazon's subsequent Q1 earnings — which showed stronger-than-expected AWS growth and confirmed supply constraints rather than demand weakness — validated the thesis that the market's panic was overblown.

Topics

13F SEC filings and institutional investment disclosuresBerkshire Hathaway portfolio changes under Greg AbelBill Ackman's Microsoft purchase and Google exitSeth Klarman doubling down on AmazonAI infrastructure spending and market overreaction

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