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Silver Is About to Do Something Most Investors Won’t Expect | Michael Oliver & Andy Schectman

Miles Franklin Media37m 10s

Michael Oliver discusses momentum-based technical analysis indicating vulnerability in stock markets by Q3, potential major corrections in precious metals, and a potential $300-500 target for silver once it breaks free from its 50-year trading range. He argues that current weakness in gold and silver represents a cleansing correction within a larger bull trend, not a market top.

Summary

Michael Oliver, a momentum structural analyst, joins Andy Schectman to discuss major market developments across stocks, bonds, and precious metals. Oliver argues the stock market has been in a topping process for a year and faces structural vulnerability that will likely manifest in Q3 2024, with momentum trigger levels below 7,000 on the S&P 500 that could initiate major bear market declines. He notes the U.S. bond market is now troubled similarly to Japan's imploding bond market, which he characterizes as a "nuclear event" that will force central banks to intervene massively through money printing and bond purchases, regardless of their stated mandates.

On precious metals, Oliver explains that despite recent weakness—including gold trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages—the long-term annual momentum structures show no structural damage to the uptrend. He distinguishes between moving average crossovers (which he considers noise) and true structural breaks in momentum, noting that gold's monthly oscillator shows six months of declining highs but only a couple hundred dollars decline from January lows, indicating sideways rather than bearish action. Similarly, silver remains near its January lows after six months of downside attempts.

Oliver argues that silver has been artificially constrained in a 50-year trading range ($5-$50) while comparable commodities like copper and lead escaped their ranges with massive breakouts. He suggests silver is experiencing a final cleansing phase before a vertical move, with his technical analysis supporting a $300-500 target zone based on logarithmic scaling, money supply expansion, and relative valuations to gold. He cites historical precedent: copper broke its 50-cent to $1.50 range in 2005 and reached $4.10 in quarters; lead similarly quadrupled after breaking a multi-decade range. He notes that if silver follows the logarithmic pattern of these metals, doubling the tenfold range dimension would yield prices around $500.

Regarding the current correction, Oliver emphasizes that bears have had three attempts to collapse prices (into the $50s range) and that if they fail this third attempt, "the trap is sprung" and the next rally will be explosive, catching doubters off-guard in the $70-80 range before accelerating higher. He also discusses institutional positioning, noting that major investment firms like Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and BlackRock's chief investment officers have begun recommending 20-25% allocations to precious metals, though this message hasn't yet penetrated to retail advisors. Oliver emphasizes monitoring four asset categories—stocks, bonds, foreign exchange, and commodities—as they interact with each other, and notes that historically during major bear markets (1929-32, 2000-02, 2007-09), not all assets decline simultaneously; capital rotates elsewhere, such as to gold and gold miners.

About this episode

Andy Schectman, Founder & CEO, Miles Franklin Precious Metals, sits down with Michael Oliver, Founder and Chief Analyst at Momentum Structural Analysis, to discuss why he believes the stock market is nearing a major turning point, why the bond market poses a growing risk to the financial system, and why the recent selloff in gold and silver may represent a final washout rather than the end of the bull market. Oliver explains why his momentum indicators suggest the stock market has been topping for more than a year, why he expects vulnerabilities to emerge in the months ahead, and how central banks could be forced to respond if stress in government debt markets intensifies. He also breaks down his bullish long-term outlook for precious metals, arguing that silver remains in a major uptrend despite recent volatility. Oliver discusses why he believes silver could be entering the next phase of its bull market and revisits his long-term target range of $300 to $500. In this episode of Little by Little with Andy Schectman: - Why Michael Oliver believes the stock market is topping - The growing risks in government bond markets - Why central banks may be forced to print again - Gold’s recent correction and what comes next - Why silver continues to attract buyers on weakness - The case for a major silver breakout - How momentum differs from traditional technical analysis - Why Michael still sees silver reaching $300-$500 - What history suggests about major commodity breakouts - Why precious metals could outperform during a stock market decline You can sign up for our newsletter here: https://milesfranklin.com/sign-up/ Follow Andy Schectman on X: https://x.com/ASchectman Follow Miles Franklin Media on X: https://x.com/MilesFranklinCo Follow Michael Oliver on X: https://x.com/Oliver_MSA You can subscribe to Michael Oliver’s research here: https://www.olivermsa.com/ #gold #silver #dollar #debt #bonds #investing 00:00 Coming Up 01:41 Introduction 03:14 Stock Market Topping Risk 04:59 Momentum Minefields Explained 09:31 Miners Pessimism Opportunity 11:28 Gold Signals Beyond Averages 13:58 Paper Vs Physical Divergence 18:47 Silver Buyers Hold The Line 21:15 Shakeout Or Real Top 23:18 Silver To 300 500 Case 26:06 History Copper, Lead Breakouts 28:07 Money Supply And Silver Ratio 31:52 Three Strikes Then Launch 33:33 Where To Follow Oliver 34:29 Final Thoughts And Outro 👍 Like, 🔔 Subscribe, and Stay Informed Join Miles Franklin Media for expert interviews, market insights, and real-time coverage of gold, silver, Bitcoin, and global economics. Hit the bell to get notified the moment new content drops – don’t miss a move in the markets. ___________________ Miles Franklin: 📞 Call us: 1-952-929-7006 📧 Email us: [email protected] 🔗 Website: https://milesfranklin.com/ ▶️ YouTube: https://youtube.com/MilesFranklinCo?sub_confirmation=1 📱 X: https://x.com/MilesFranklinCo 📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/milesfranklinmedia/ 💼 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/miles-franklin-9a6632369/ 📘 Facebook: http://fb.com/MilesFranklinCo 📩 For media inquiries, contact: [email protected] 📺 About Miles Franklin Media Join Miles Franklin Media for unfiltered financial and economic news and insights. Through expert interviews and real market intelligence, we cut through the noise and challenge the mainstream narrative. Anchored in the principles of sound money, we uncover the truth about money, markets, macroeconomics, geopolitics, and power – delivering credible insights to help you protect your wealth, future, and freedom. 🏦 About Miles Franklin Miles Franklin is a trusted leader in wealth preservation, with over $11 billion in precious metals sales since 1989. Specializing in gold and silver, we help clients safeguard their wealth with real assets that stand the test of time. ___________________ Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this video are those of the individual speakers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Miles Franklin Precious Metals, its affiliates, owners, anchors, producers or hosts. This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as financial, legal, or investment advice. Nothing said in this video should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial asset. You should always consult with a qualified financial advisor, legal professional, or tax expert before making any investment decisions. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. By watching this video, you agree that neither the hosts, guests, nor Miles Franklin Media are responsible for any investment decisions you make based on the information presented. Use of this content is at your own risk.

Key Insights

  • Oliver argues the S&P 500 has momentum trigger levels below 7,000 that, if broken, will trigger structural damage to momentum charts that go back several years, initiating a major bear market rather than a minor correction.
  • Oliver characterizes the weakening U.S. bond market as a 'nuclear event' that will force central banks to panic and intervene with money printing and bond purchases, regardless of their stated mandates or unemployment data.
  • Oliver distinguishes between meaningful structural breaks in momentum (where an asset tests a level multiple times before breaking through) versus irrelevant moving average crossovers that occur without confirming structure, which he argues confuse investors.
  • Oliver claims silver has been confined to a $5-$50 range for 50 years while comparable metals like copper and lead escaped their ranges with multi-fold increases, suggesting silver's breakout will follow similar proportions to approximately $500 on a logarithmic scale.
  • Oliver argues that silver's six-month downtrend from $120 to $64 represents sideways action rather than bear market confirmation because monthly momentum shows declining highs but prices remain only slightly below January lows.
  • Oliver contends that if bearish traders fail to collapse silver into the $50s on this third attempt, the market structure ('the trap') is sprung and the next rally will accelerate vertically in ways that will prevent doubters from repositioning.
  • Oliver notes that historically, during major equity market declines (1929-32, 2000-02, 2007-09), capital does not uniformly decline across all assets but rotates elsewhere, with gold typically continuing higher even during stock crashes.
  • Oliver argues that silver's gold-to-silver ratio has compressed from 6.5% in 1980 to just 1.6% currently, and if silver breaks its trading range and returns to historical relative performance, silver prices would need to rise significantly even if gold prices remained flat.

Topics

Stock market technical analysis and momentum structuresBond market instability and central bank interventionGold and silver price patterns and structural analysisSilver's 50-year trading range and breakout potentialMonetary supply and precious metals valuationMarket corrections versus structural breaksHistorical commodity breakouts and precedentAsset allocation and institutional positioning

Transcript

[0:00] The one market category that has yet to reveal itself in terms of causing pain, doubt, etc. is the stock market. It's been in a topping process for a year. But, the vulnerability in the stock market's likely to show itself in the third [music] quarter. Debt market is trouble now, just like the Japanese. That's a nuclear event. This panics the central banks, meaning they go ape. They have to. They have no choice. So, they got to defend that house from burning down. Meaning print money, buy the bonds, etc. [0:32] >> Are you still strongly believing that that $300 range is possible here soon? >> Silver has broken out and said, "I'm pissed off. I've been…

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