TRS Grummes

In this comprehensive interview, Florian Groommes, managing director of Midas Touch Consulting, shares his market analysis and investment positioning. Regarding gold, he reiterates his bullish long-term thesis despite the recent 30% correction from the $5,600 January peak. He views the current pullback as a healthy consolidation in a larger secular bull market, with his worst-case scenario at $3,500 and conviction that gold will eventually reach $10,000, though this may take 3-5 years rather than near-term. He sees key technical support at the $4,000 level and the 200-day moving average around $4,500, with final confirmation of the correction's end coming only after gold reclaims its all-time high of $5,600.

On silver, Groommes applies similar logic, noting the metal corrected from $121 back toward the $50 support level—the previous all-time high from 1980 and 2011. He acknowledges a massive 600% rally from 2022 lows but maintains a long-term price target of $200-$500, though he doesn't expect triple-digit silver until 2028. He interprets recent gold-backed ETF outflows of $4.7 billion as a contrarian signal, suggesting weak hands capitulating while strong hands (central banks, Asian physical buyers, and COMEX delivery takers) continue accumulating physical metal.

Groommes expresses significant caution on equity markets, particularly noting the parabolic 330% rise in semiconductor stocks (SOX ETF) over 14 months. He views this as unsustainable and warns that if the AI bubble corrects like the 2000 crash, markets could pull back 50-80%. However, he acknowledges structural support from passive investing, government programs like the new Trump administration's child investment accounts, and the Fed's likely willingness to rescue markets during stress.

On cryptocurrency, Groommes has completely reversed his previous bullish stance. He sold all Bitcoin and crypto holdings in October 2023 at approximately the highs, citing three primary concerns: the financialization of Bitcoin through Wall Street products, technological obsolescence risks from quantum computing, and the psychological pain of crypto winter volatility. He believes crypto winters typically end with total capitulation and panic, which hasn't yet occurred. His base case allows for Bitcoin to decline to $45,000-$50,000, with a potential bottom in October seasonality-wise, but he remains on the sidelines awaiting clear panic signals.

Regarding macroeconomic fundamentals, Groommes notes that M2 money supply surged $699 billion year-to-date (largest in five years), confirming the ongoing "confetti party" monetary expansion since the 1970s. However, he emphasizes this doesn't translate immediately to asset prices and requires patience for gold to "catch up" to money supply expansion. On oil, he identifies a key mispricing: the market underestimates supply-side risks despite tight global inventories and taut conditions. He expects oil to bounce toward $80 by late August-September despite potential demand destruction from any stock market weakness.

Personally, Groommes maintains his highest liquidity position ever at over 50% cash, with approximately 30% allocated to physical gold and silver (which he's been adding to on dips), some mining and oil/gas stocks, and platinum exposure. He emphasizes the virtue of patience, noting from 25 years of market experience that corrections take longer than expected but require discipline to sit through without leverage or paper positions. His primary conviction is waiting for September-October clarity on equity market direction before deploying capital more aggressively.