Ken Fisher Talks World Wars, Inflation, REITs and More
Ken Fisher addresses various financial questions, arguing that World War II didn't end the Great Depression but rather that wars create recessions through global trade disruption. He also discusses inflation expectations, bond roles, price-weighted indices, and REITs as investment vehicles.
Summary
In this mailbag-style video, Ken Fisher tackles several financial misconceptions and questions from viewers. He begins by challenging the widely taught belief that World War II ended the Great Depression, explaining that wars actually create recessions by disrupting global trade routes and making international commerce dangerous. He uses current examples like the Strait of Hormuz to illustrate how shipping disruptions cause economic problems, noting that while wartime activities like manufacturing weapons may temporarily boost GDP, this activity is unsustainable and the products are ultimately destroyed. On inflation, Fisher predicts it will remain stable as long as major central banks continue their current money supply growth rates. He addresses the evolving role of bonds in portfolios as subjective and dependent on individual investor perspectives. Fisher provides a technical explanation of price-weighted indices like the Dow Jones Industrial Average, criticizing them as misleading compared to market cap-weighted alternatives because they give disproportionate influence to higher-priced stocks regardless of company size. Finally, he discusses REITs as legitimate investment options but cautions that they should be viewed as stocks rather than real estate, noting they behave more like cyclical stocks and don't correlate with actual real estate performance.
Key Insights
- Fisher argues that wars create recessions through global trade disruption, not economic recovery, contradicting the common belief that World War II ended the Great Depression
- Fisher predicts inflation will stay about the same this year as long as major central banks maintain their current money supply growth rates
- Fisher explains that price-weighted indices like the Dow Jones give misleading market representation because higher-priced stocks have disproportionate influence regardless of company size
- Fisher characterizes REITs as stocks that behave like cyclicals rather than real estate, warning they don't correlate with actual real estate performance
- Fisher uses the Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions as a micro example of how global trade dislocation during conflicts creates economic problems
Topics
Transcript
[0:00] War destroying stuff does not end a recession. War creates dislocation in global trade while it's going on, which creates recession. So, every month, people send me various kinds of questions and I try, but I'm largely unable, to answer them briefly. [0:31] But I call this "the mailbag," and I print them up on a little card so that my aged eyes can read them, and try to whip you through them really fast, because if people send me these questions, you might be interested in them, too. So, in a past video, you mentioned that a world war will cause a recession because it has a negative effect on global trade. I was taught that World War…
Full transcript available for MurmurCast members
Sign Up to AccessMore from Fisher Investments
This Week in Review | Global PMIs, SpaceX, RMD Planning (July 10, 2026)
This week in review covers three key developments: global PMI data showing unexpected economic resilience across major markets, SpaceX's addition to the NASDAQ 100 index, and a midyear reminder for those 73+ to plan required minimum distributions from retirement accounts.
Ken Fisher’s 2026 Mid-Year Market Update
Ken Fisher provides a mid-year 2026 market update, noting that markets are up about 9% year-to-date, performing slightly better than his beginning-of-year forecast. While most predictions have held true, AI-related tech has significantly outperformed expectations, and non-tech US equities are lagging their overseas counterparts more than anticipated.
Does Ken Fisher Still Hate Annuities?
Ken Fisher advises potential annuity buyers to carefully read and understand the contract before purchasing, as annuities are contracts between the buyer and insurance company. He acknowledges that contracts are difficult to read due to jargon and complexity, but argues that thorough review will clarify what the annuity actually is and allow buyers to make informed decisions.
Ken Fisher: Celebrating 250 Years of American Innovation
Ken Fisher argues that America has been the dominant force in global innovation and capitalism, particularly from the late 19th century onward, contributing significantly to material well-being worldwide. He contends that American capitalism deserves celebration as it has generated breakthrough innovations and successful companies that have benefited not only Americans but people across the globe.
3 Things You Need to Know This Week | NATO Summit, Fed Minutes, Quarterly Reporting (July 6, 2026)
This weekly market briefing covers three major topics: the NATO summit in Turkey and its limited market impact despite higher defense spending, the Fed's June meeting minutes under new Chairman Kevin Worsh showing divided views on future rate decisions, and an SEC proposal to change public company reporting from quarterly to semiannual cadence.