3 Things You Need to Know This Week | Monetary Policy, EZ Sentiment, Global Trade (June 15, 2026)
Fisher Investments' weekly market briefing covers three key themes: the Fed's first FOMC meeting under new chair Kevin Warsh amid US inflation driven by the Iran conflict, eurozone economic sentiment data showing signs of improvement, and underreported growth in global trade outside the US. The episode argues that low sentiment, steady trade expansion, and central bank stability collectively present underappreciated positives for global stocks.
Summary
The episode opens with a focus on monetary policy, highlighting that both the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are holding policy meetings this week, with primary attention on the Fed. Kevin Warsh, the new Fed chairman, faces his first significant test as the FOMC — a 12-member body that includes former chair Jerome Powell — convenes on June 16th and 17th. The backdrop is rising US consumer prices linked to an ongoing conflict in Iran, while the UK faces more stable prices but heightened fears of inflation resurgence, recalling the elevated inflation the UK experienced in 2022 and 2023. Neither central bank is expected to announce rate changes, but the meetings are viewed as a signal for where monetary policy is headed for the rest of the year. Fisher Investments argues that stocks do not need rate cuts or hikes to continue rising, but warns that the real risk lies in a policy error such as hiking too fast or inverting the yield curve.
The second topic is eurozone economic sentiment, with fresh data due on Tuesday. Sentiment in the eurozone has been negative in March, April, and May following the onset of the Iran war, though May's reading beat expectations. Fisher Investments cautions that feelings and economic reality often diverge, particularly during uncertain times, and emphasizes that markets thrive on the gap between expectations and reality. They argue that persistently low sentiment can actually be a bullish signal, as it creates room for positive surprises — a dynamic they connect to global stocks recently hitting all-time highs.
The third segment covers global trade, with updated data expected from the eurozone and Japan. Despite widespread fears about tariffs, net new global trade outside the US has been growing steadily since the start of 2025. Fisher Investments describes this as an underappreciated positive, noting that while tariff disputes have dominated headlines, other economies have been quietly forging new trade relationships. Examples cited include EU deals with India and Latin America, China and Canada slashing tariffs on electric vehicle imports, and new trade agreements involving the UK, Japan, and Australia. With more deals expected through 2026, the firm believes this trend supports global market growth and can fuel further positive surprise.
Key Insights
- Fisher Investments argues that the primary risk to markets is not the direction of rate changes, but a central bank policy error such as hiking rates too fast or inverting the yield curve — stocks do not need cuts or hikes to keep rising.
- Kevin Warsh officially became Fed chairman and faces his first major test at the June 16–17 FOMC meeting, where the 12-member committee — which includes former chair Jerome Powell — sets US monetary policy collectively.
- Fisher Investments contends that low eurozone sentiment is a bullish signal for stocks because markets thrive on the gap between expectations and reality — when investors expect things to get worse, there is greater potential to beat those expectations.
- Despite tariff fears dominating headlines for over a year, net new global trade outside the US has been growing steadily since the start of 2025, which Fisher Investments describes as an underappreciated positive largely ignored by financial media.
- Fisher Investments highlights a wave of new trade deals — including EU agreements with India and Latin America, China and Canada cutting EV tariffs, and deals involving the UK, Japan, and Australia — as evidence of deepening global trade cooperation evolving in response to war, US tariffs, and shifting relationships.
Topics
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