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3 Things You Need to Know This Week | Central Bank Meetings, Q1 GDP, Sell in May (Apr. 27, 2026)

Fisher Investments

Fisher Investments covers three key market topics: upcoming central bank meetings from the Fed, BoJ, BoE, and ECB; first quarter GDP releases for the US and eurozone; and why the seasonal 'Sell in May' adage lacks merit according to historical data.

Summary

This episode of Fisher Investments' weekly market update focuses on three critical developments for investors. The first major topic covers a series of central bank meetings scheduled for the week, beginning with the Bank of Japan on Monday, followed by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, and concluding with the Bank of England and European Central Bank on Thursday. The analysis notes that the BoJ has been normalizing interest rates after years of negative rates, while the Fed is expected to hold rates steady despite previous market concerns about inflation creeping back into member forecasts. The episode emphasizes that central banks don't need to move in lockstep and that stocks don't depend on interest rate cuts to continue rising. The second topic addresses upcoming Q1 GDP releases for both the US and eurozone on Thursday, cautioning investors against overreacting to single-quarter data. The commentary explains that disappointing GDP doesn't necessarily signal recession, and economic data is inherently backward-looking while stocks look forward. The final topic debunks the seasonal investing myth 'Sell in May and Go Away,' presenting historical data from 1925 showing that all summer months have positive average returns except September. The episode concludes by advocating for a disciplined, fundamental approach over market timing strategies based on seasonal myths.

Key Insights

  • The Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections indicated inflation concerns were creeping back into member rate forecasts, causing negative market reactions despite holding rates steady
  • Central banks don't always move in lockstep, and history shows markets don't rely on coordinated central bank policies to function
  • Economic data is inherently backward looking and has never been a reliable predictor of where stock prices are headed
  • Historical data from 1925 shows all summer months have positive average monthly returns, with only September having negative average returns during the 'Sell in May' period
  • Attempting to time the market based on seasonality myths can come with a big opportunity cost compared to disciplined fundamental analysis

Topics

Central Bank Policy MeetingsGDP Economic DataSeasonal Investment Myths

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