Stock Market & Crypto Analysis for Week Ending 9/25/26

Brian Shannon from alphrends.net provides a comprehensive technical analysis of multiple market segments for the week ending Friday, September 25, 2026. The week showed mixed performance: the NASDAQ and Bitcoin were particularly strong, while the Russell 2000, biotech, financials, bonds, and energy declined.

For the S&P 500, Shannon discusses a gap up on Monday followed by consolidation near the Federal Reserve meeting anchor point. The critical focus is on the higher low formed this week, which he identifies as the most important level to hold for the intermediate term. He notes that holding above this level makes new all-time highs "inevitable," with target resistance around 775-800. If this level breaks, it signals weakness but not necessarily an unraveling market.

The NASDAQ showed similar strength, pulling back only briefly to its rising five-day moving average before establishing another higher low. Shannon emphasizes the stock index is just "whiskers" from all-time highs and expects continuation to 744 on the Q's if support holds.

The Russell 2000 represents the primary weakness, trading in a bearish environment below declining 20, 50, and 200-day moving averages. Shannon cautions against buying weakness here, though acknowledges the year-to-date anchor as a potential support level of interest. However, he notes the lack of buyer control at that level previously.

Semiconductors had a strong week and face a significant catalyst with Micron earnings on September 30th. Shannon references Micron's prior earnings when strong results paradoxically led to weakness, cautioning that initial negative reactions to earnings should not scare investors out of positions—the real move often emerges 2-3 days post-earnings.

Biotech shows a concerning pattern of lower highs and lower lows over the past month and is only attempting to stabilize at the 152 level, which Shannon cautions cannot yet be called true support until confirmed by higher price action.

Financials remain weak, failing to break above the five-day moving average for an entire week, indicating no attempt at a neutral turn. Shannon targets potential support at the 200-day moving average and year-to-date anchored VWAP around 53-5375.

Bond yields have become a major headline driver, with 10-year yields rising above 5% and now approaching 5.3%. Shannon notes the bullish flag pattern in yields and anticipates continued movement higher, though he cautions that equities appear unconcerned despite the bearish bond headlines. He emphasizes trading each market on its own merits regardless of macro narratives.

Bitcoin had an excellent week, finally breaking free of the all-time high anchor and establishing control from the year-to-date anchor support level. Shannon identifies the 82 level as critical resistance to watch.

Throughout the analysis, Shannon stresses the importance of price action over headlines, proper risk management given the weak advance-decline backdrop, and avoiding extended breakouts. He cautions that markets climb a wall of worry and advises traders to establish positions during pullbacks rather than chasing breakouts.