Stock Market & Crypto Analysis for Week Ending 9/18/26
Brian Shannon reviews mixed market performance for the week ending September 18, 2026, highlighting constructive action in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ despite Fed rate hikes, with particular strength in semiconductors and Bitcoin. He emphasizes the importance of moving average trends and proper entry points rather than chasing rallies, while cautioning against weaker sectors like biotech and financials.
Summary
Brian Shannon from alphrends.net provides a comprehensive market analysis for the week ending September 18, 2026. Overall market performance was mixed but constructive, with the S&P 500 down 34 basis points despite recent volatility. Shannon highlights that the market experienced wash-outs below the 50-day moving average but recovered quickly, creating what he considers a favorable setup. The NASDAQ performed better, up about 1% for the week and back to positive for the month, with a likely scenario of new all-time highs potentially materializing over the next month as the market breaks past existing range and trend lines.
Key market drivers included the Federal Reserve's rate hike announcement and Bitcoin's strong 5% weekly gain, with a notable 6% rally on Friday itself. Oil dropped 5%, while semiconductors regained leadership. Shannon uses moving averages and anchored VWAP levels as key technical tools to identify levels of interest and determine market health. He distinguishes between markets showing constructive action (S&P 500, NASDAQ, semiconductors with rising 20 and 50-day moving averages) versus those struggling (Russell 2000, biotech, financials with declining moving averages).
For individual sectors, Shannon notes that semiconductors are poised for potential new all-time highs if they carve out proper higher lows, with stocks like Micron and SanDisk showing particular strength. He cautions that SanDisk has moved 11% in two days and advises waiting for pullbacks to establish higher lows before buying breakouts. Biotech remains unfavored due to a declining 20-day moving average, while financials took a 2.5% hit this week and face resistance from declining moving averages. The MAGs (mega-cap tech stocks) made new all-time highs despite Netflix weakness, demonstrating the strength of semiconductor leadership.
Shannon emphasizes that successful trading involves identifying trends through moving average alignment rather than predicting markets. He advocates for buying strength after pullbacks that create higher lows, not buying breakouts immediately. For Bitcoin, he notes it's holding above the 74,750 level while flirting with the all-time high anchor, though he would have preferred a pullback to year-to-date levels. His overall recommendation is to focus on markets and sectors showing the clearest uptrends with rising moving averages, where the probability of follow-through is highest.
About this episode
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Key Insights
- Shannon identifies that quick recoveries from wash-outs below the 50-day moving average have repeatedly led to nice rallies, suggesting this pattern is building again for potential continuation higher in the S&P 500.
- Shannon argues that key technical levels like anchored VWAP, moving averages, and Fibonacci levels are levels of interest, not places to do business, because managing risk becomes difficult when trying to pick exact level reversals.
- Shannon contends that the Russell 2000 is less likely to follow through on upside strength because it's trading below declining 20 and 50-day moving averages, making it less favorable for trading compared to markets with rising moving average trends.
- Shannon observes that in SanDisk, the frequency of tests at supply levels is increasing while the time between tests is decreasing, indicating that buyers are regaining control faster and more often, making the supply level more likely to fail.
- Shannon demonstrates that buying breakouts in Nvidia repeatedly resulted in immediate sharp reversals, whereas waiting for pullbacks to establish higher lows provides better risk-reward opportunities for entry.
Topics
Transcript
[0:00] Hey everybody, it is Friday the 18th of September 2026 and this is Brian Shannon from alphrends.net speaking. We had a mixed bag this week, but overall I think pretty constructive. Uh, of course the Fed raised rates. That was the big headline. Uh, Bitcoin really took off here today in particular. Uh, up 5% for the week. So we had been down week today before today's 6% rally. Oil dropped 5%. That's big news. and the semiconductors regained the lead here again. So, uh, [0:31] and the spy was down, but I think still constructive. Let's take a closer look here. As I pointed out to subscribers in the, uh, midday video, and I do this on X,…
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