Chamath Lays Out the Case for SpaceX at $2 Trillion

Chamath begins by acknowledging that SpaceX is trading at a costly premium relative to its current revenue of $18-19 billion in the prior year, expected to grow to $25-30 billion in the current year. Despite the high multiple, he argues the valuation is justified by breaking down what investors are actually buying.

First, he frames Starlink as the most important internet infrastructure project since the internet itself, one that will scale to hundreds of millions of users as it becomes progressively cheaper. He categorizes this as a GDP-plus-10 to GDP-plus-15 type grower — a solid, valuable business that also serves as the foundational platform enabling everything else Musk is building.

Second, he identifies an AI business layered on top, with consumer-facing apps at the top and massive compute infrastructure at the bottom. His revenue projections suggest ~$40-45B next year and a doubling again the year after, which would bring SpaceX to roughly 20x revenue — a multiple he considers defensible given the operating leverage the revenue provides to reinvest across all of Musk's ventures.

Third, Chamath describes a self-reinforcing flywheel of moats: capital moats accelerate technology moats, which accelerate execution and learning moats. He acknowledges the flywheel is already spinning but insists 'we're at the beginning of the beginning.' He also notes his continued discomfort with Tesla being a separate entity, predicting it will eventually be merged into the SpaceX ecosystem, creating an enormous corpus of physical and mobility capabilities.

Finally, Chamath assigns a 'visionary premium' to Musk, comparing him to Steve Jobs as someone who consistently surprises the market with what's next. He argues this premium is well-deserved regardless of personal feelings about Musk.