Bill Ackman: Investment Strategy, What the Market is Missing, How AI Breaks Businesses

Bill Ackman opens by describing his evolution from a scrappy activist investor who had to 'bang down doors' to get CEOs to return calls, to a well-known institutional voice that companies now welcome proactively. He traces this journey through his early Wendy's/Tim Hortons investment, where he had to publicly file a fairness opinion just to get management's attention. Over time, he says, the most important insight he has developed is an appreciation for 'long-term durable protected non-disruptible growth' as the central criterion for business quality.

On AI, Ackman argues that the current technological environment has dramatically raised the risk of disruption for any business, making it the hardest and most important question for investors today. He believes high-quality companies like Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon are being overlooked and undervalued as capital chases newer AI-adjacent plays like chips and semiconductors — a dynamic he compares to Berkshire Hathaway being left behind during the dot-com bubble. He expresses concern about SaaS companies like Salesforce, which he believes have been extracting monopolistic rents from customers and now face real disruption risk.

Ackman discusses underwriting AI-era companies like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic using a venture capital framework — evaluating people, opportunity, context, and deal terms — rather than traditional public market metrics. He is personally invested in SpaceX via an SPV and in xAI. He praises OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar, saying she should be CEO and that Sam Altman would be better suited as chairman.

On Howard Hughes Corporation, Ackman outlines his plan to transform it into a Berkshire Hathaway-style compounding vehicle by reinvesting real estate cash flows into an insurance operation, mirroring Buffett's strategy of using insurance float to fund long-term equity investments. He describes the company as currently trading at a discount to liquidation value and sees it as a multi-decade compounding opportunity.

Ackman also reflects on how his social media presence — particularly long-form tweets reaching 2.2 million followers — has become a tool for both market commentary and direct corporate influence, including his famous March 2020 CNBC appearance urging a national shutdown, which he framed as an attempt to reach President Trump. He concludes by outlining three investment vehicles for those wanting exposure to Pershing Square: the management company itself, PSUS (trading at an 18% discount to NAV), and Howard Hughes Corporation.