Why are markets listening to Trump?

This episode of the Unhedged podcast examines the extreme market volatility triggered by Trump's social media posts about Iran negotiations. The hosts describe how oil prices and stocks whipsawed dramatically when Trump claimed 'very good and productive conversations' with Iran about ending hostilities, only for Iran to deny any talks were occurring. The analysts argue that markets aren't being foolish but are rationally interpreting Trump's statements as signals about his desire to exit the conflict, even if the specific claims about talks are untrue. They note that nobody in markets has superior information about the situation, creating an information desert where even small probability changes must be priced in. The discussion covers how gold has behaved contrary to expectations, falling 17% despite being traditionally viewed as a safe haven, suggesting it has become more of a speculative asset at current price levels. They also address concerning reports of oil futures trades worth half a billion dollars occurring 15 minutes before Trump's announcement, raising questions about potential insider trading. The hosts conclude by considering whether investors should simply tune out the constant headline-driven volatility and focus on longer-term implications of the conflict for inflation and energy policy.