Predict The Future, Feel Ready for Anything and Prepare for the World Ahead | Jane McGonigal (Replay)
Jane McGonigal discusses how to overcome normalcy bias and prepare for the future through imaginative forecasting, game-based simulations, and detailed scenario planning. She explains her prediction of the 2020 pandemic a decade earlier and explores emerging futures like cryptocurrency regulation, climate migration, and Web3 gaming economies.
Summary
Jane McGonigal, a futurist and game designer, explains the concept of future shock—the psychological overwhelm caused by rapid change—which was theorized by Alvin Toffler in 1968. She describes her work at the Institute for the Future, where she uses social simulations and games to help people imagine and prepare for multiple possible futures. McGonigal conducted a game called Evoke in 2010 where 20,000 players imagined responses to a respiratory pandemic starting in China, complicated by misinformation and supply chain collapse—a scenario that remarkably paralleled COVID-19 a decade later. Players predicted behaviors like going to church despite contagion risk, continuing to work despite illness, and struggling with childcare if schools closed, all of which actually occurred.
McGonigal introduces Dadder's Law, which states that any useful idea about the future should initially seem ridiculous. This principle helps overcome normalcy bias—the brain's tendency to assume current patterns will continue unchanged. She advocates for embracing "ridiculous at first" ideas to shake people out of complacency and imagine truly transformative futures. She describes a brainstorming technique called "100 Ways Anything Can Be Different in the Future," where participants reverse facts about the present (e.g., "there is no minimum voting age") and then research clues about why such futures might occur.
Regarding emotional engagement with future scenarios, McGonigal explains that people feel less anxiety—not more—when they vividly imagine catastrophic futures, even for just five minutes. This is because the brain then recognizes the imagined scenario as possible rather than shocking. When people imagine future scenarios and consider how they could help others, they feel empowered rather than anxious. She discusses the alpha-gal tick-borne illness scenario in detail: already, more than a third of people in the southeastern US test positive for sensitization to alpha-gal syndrome, which could escalate dramatically with climate change and tick migration.
McGonigal details her journaling technique for deep future engagement: writing vivid five-minute journal entries with at least 30 sensory details (visual, auditory, tactile) about living in an imagined future. Extended practice over 10 days across different life activities creates deep expertise about a future before it happens. She discusses backcasting—starting from a desired future and working backward to identify pivotal moments and actions needed—as a complement to forecasting.
The conversation turns to cryptocurrency and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). McGonigal notes that signals of change show every sovereign government is experimenting with its own cryptocurrency. China has already launched a national digital currency and is distributing it for free to encourage adoption, while the Biden administration recently announced CBDC development. Programmable money offers governments powerful tools like expiration dates on stimulus funds, location-specific spending, and negative interest rates to discourage saving. She acknowledges concerns about surveillance and traceability but emphasizes understanding competing values: Americans traditionally prioritize privacy, but other cultures prioritize transparency and accountability, as evidenced by China's adoption of facial recognition technology.
McGonigal discusses the use of genetic DNA databases by law enforcement to solve cold cases, noting that this technology was enabled by people voluntarily uploading ancestry data to services like 23andMe. She argues that dismissing privacy concerns without understanding why people find this technology exciting (catching serial killers) leads to blind spots about how society may actually evolve.
The host and McGonigal discuss emerging Web3 gaming, wallet-aware experiences, and NFTs. McGonigal shares her 2015 prediction that gamers would eventually expect to generate income from playing games, a radical idea at the time that is now materializing through blockchain gaming. However, she notes significant friction between traditional gamers and Web3 gaming communities, primarily because traditional game companies are using NFTs extractively rather than sharing revenue with players. She explains that the concept of a single interoperable metaverse is naive from a game design perspective—game designers don't want weapons from Fortnite appearing on Animal Crossing islands. The host introduces the concept of a "metaverse archipelago" with consistent identity across separate game experiences, customized based on wallet-detected affinities, which McGonigal finds promising as a more plausible approach.
About this episode
<p>In today’s era of ever-accelerating change, it might seem impossible to predict the future with any degree of accuracy. Likewise, it might be easy to assume that the only way to do so is through sophisticated AI algorithms and data science.</p><p>Incredibly, Jane McGonigal and her colleagues at Institute for the Future have been able to predict several of today’s most disruptive trends as much as ten years in advance.</p><p>Through her innovative use of alternate reality games, hyper-specific journaling techniques, and something called “future backcasting”, Jane continues to not only lay out seemingly impossible future scenarios, but also help prepare people to be proactive in building the future they want to see.</p><p>If you like what you see in today’s episode, then I highly encourage you to check out Jane’s latest book, Imaginable: How to See the Future Coming and Feel Ready for Anything―Even Things That Seem Impossible Today</p><p><br /></p><p>Order your copy by clicking here: https://amzn.to/3JwImO2</p><p><br /></p><p>[Original air date: 4-12-22]. </p><p><br /></p><p>SHOW NOTES:</p><p>00:00 | Introduction</p><p>01:40 | A New Approach to Futurism</p><p>13:23 | The Psychology of Predicting the Future</p><p>22:50 | Rehearsing Catastrophes</p><p>32:56 | How to Practice for the Future</p><p>38:18 | Crypto, Government, and Privacy</p><p>48:31 | Future Backcasting</p><p>53:54 | The Future of Web3 Gaming</p><p><br /></p><p>Follow Jane McGonigal:</p><p>Website: https://janemcgonigal.com/</p><p>Twitter: https://twitter.com/avantgame</p><p>LinkedIn: https://bit.ly/3jpyRpj</p><p>Urgent Optimists: https://urgentoptimists.org/</p><p>Order your copy of Imaginable: https://amzn.to/3JwImO2</p><p><br /></p><p>SPONSORS:</p><p>Keep your ride-or-die alive at <a href="https://ebaymotors.com" target="_blank">https://EbayMotors.com</a></p><p>Explore the Range Rover Sport at <a href="https://landroverusa.com" target="_blank">https://landroverusa.com</a></p><p>NetSuite has extended its one-of-a-kind flexible financing program for a few more weeks! Head to <a href="https://netsuite.com/THEORY" target="_blank">https://netsuite.com/THEORY</a>. </p><p>Use this link and Hartford Gold will give you up to $15,000 dollars of FREE silver on your first qualifying: <a href="http://order.offers.americanhartfordgold.com/content-affiliate/?&leadsource=affiliate&utm_sfcampaign=701Rb000009EnmrIAC" target="_blank">order.offers.americanhartfordgold.com/content-affiliate/?&leadsource=affiliate&utm_sfcampaign=701Rb000009EnmrIAC</a></p><p>Start your free online visit today at <a href="https://hims.com/IMPACT" target="_blank">https://Hims.com/IMPACT</a> for your personalized ED treatment options. </p><p>Get 5 free AG1 Travel Packs and a FREE 1 year supply of Vitamin D with your first purchase at <a href="https://bit.ly/AG1Impact" target="_blank">https://drinkag1.com/impact</a>.</p><p>Secure your digital life with proactive protection for your assets, identity, family, and tech – Go to <a href="https://aura.com/IMPACT" target="_blank">https://aura.com/IMPACT</a> to start your free two-week trial.</p><p>Take control of your gut health by going to <a href="https://tryviome.com/impact" target="_blank">https://tryviome.com/impact</a> and use code IMPACT to get 20% off your first 3 months and free shipping.</p><p><br /></p><p><strong>FOLLOW TOM:</strong></p><p>Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tombilyeu/</p><p>Tik Tok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tombilyeu?lang=en</p><p>Twitter: https://twitter.com/tombilyeu</p><p>YouTube: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/@TomBilyeu" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/@TomBilyeu</a></p><p><br /></p><p><strong>What's up, everybody?</strong> It's Tom Bilyeu here. If you're serious about leveling up your life, I urge you to check out my new podcast,<a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/47VE90Cittmo6TGGFqg2xf" target="_blank"> <strong>Tom Bilyeu’s Mindset Playbook</strong></a> —<strong>a goldmine of my most impactful episodes on mindset, business, and health.</strong> Trust me, your future self will thank you.</p><p><br /></p><p><strong>LISTEN AD FREE + BONUS EPISODES on APPLE PODCASTS</strong>: <a href="http://apple.co/impacttheory" target="_blank">apple.co/impacttheory</a></p><p> </p><p>Learn more about your ad choices. Visit <a href="https://megaphone.fm/adchoices" target="_blank">megaphone.fm/adchoices</a></p><p>See Privacy Policy at <a href="https://art19.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://art19.com/privacy</a> and California Privacy Notice at <a href="https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info</a>.</p>
Key Insights
- McGonigal conducted a game simulation in 2010 where 20,000 ordinary people predicted specific COVID-19 behaviors like attending church while contagious and going to work despite illness—predictions that actually occurred a decade later, showing that crowdsourced imagination captures behavioral insights experts miss.
- Dadder's Law states that any useful idea about the future should initially seem ridiculous; this principle is essential because it counteracts normalcy bias and forces people to imagine truly transformative rather than merely incremental futures.
- Vividly imagining catastrophic scenarios for just five minutes causes the brain to recognize those scenarios as possible rather than shocking, leading to pre-recognition emotions (confidence and clarity) rather than anxiety when those futures begin to unfold.
- Every sovereign government is currently experimenting with and planning its own digital currency; China has already launched one and is distributing it free to encourage adoption, while the US Biden administration recently announced CBDC development.
- Programmable government money enables powerful policy tools like stimulus funds that expire in 30 days, location-specific spending restrictions, and negative interest rates to prevent corporate cash hoarding—explaining why governments are motivated to develop this technology.
- McGonigal predicted in 2015 that gamers would eventually expect to be paid to play games rather than paying for games—a prediction that seemed ridiculous then but is materializing through blockchain gaming and play-to-earn models.
- Traditional gamers express vitriol toward Web3 gaming because traditional game companies are using NFTs extractively rather than sharing revenue with players, creating a perception of parasitism rather than innovation benefiting the gaming community.
- The concept of a single interoperable metaverse where Fortnite weapons appear on Animal Crossing islands is naive from a game design perspective; separate game experiences with consistent player identity (metaverse archipelago) is more plausible.
- When law enforcement began using genetic databases like 23andMe to solve cold cases, traditional privacy advocates opposed it, but many people—particularly women—welcomed it as a relief because it finally held serial killers accountable, revealing that privacy may not remain America's highest value.
- Journaling about imagined futures with at least 30 sensory details (visual, auditory, tactile) for 10 days across different life activities creates deep expertise about a future before it happens and overcomes normalcy bias more effectively than abstract discussion.
- Competing values like privacy versus transparency are not universal; Chinese culture prioritizes transparency and accountability, leading to adoption of facial recognition technology that Americans view as dystopian, suggesting US assumptions about what society will accept may be wrong.
- People feel empowered rather than anxious when imagining future scenarios because they focus on identifying their own skills and strengths that could help others in crisis, creating a service mindset that shifts emotional experience from helplessness to agency.
Topics
Transcript
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