Mating Crisis: Why The Rate Of Single Men Looking For Dates Has Declined | William Costello PT 2 (Fan Fave)
Tom Bilyeu interviews researcher William Costello about the ongoing 'sex recession,' exploring the psychological, technological, and evolutionary factors driving declining rates of mating and relationship formation. They discuss incel psychology, dating app dynamics, cross-sex theory of mind, and potential technological futures including AI companions. The conversation spans evolutionary mismatch, population collapse concerns, and the challenges of modern mating markets.
Summary
The conversation opens with a discussion of the 'sex recession' and its potential contribution to population collapse, which Elon Musk has identified as a significant civilizational risk. Costello explains how dating apps like Tinder have contributed to an effective modern polygyny, where a small percentage of men monopolize sexual partners while large numbers of men are left sexless — a pattern that mirrors ancestral polygynous structures but is now technologically mediated.
A major theme is evolutionary mismatch: humans are navigating mating with psychological hardware built for small ancestral communities, but now face conditions like dating apps exposing them to more potential mates in minutes than ancestors would encounter in a lifetime. This creates FOMO-driven commitment avoidance and distorts natural rejection-sensitivity mechanisms. The business model of dating apps is highlighted as actively incentivizing users to remain single and swiping rather than forming committed relationships.
Costello provides an in-depth analysis of incel (involuntary celibate) psychology, drawing on his own research. He argues that contrary to popular assumption, incels are often not actively trying to find partners — they've embraced a victimhood identity that provides social belonging, a rich lexicon, fraternal community, and relief from the anxiety of the mating market. He introduces the 'hope, cope, rope' framework used within incel communities, noting that suicidality — not violence toward others — is the most statistically common form of extreme incel behavior. Incels display strong external locus of control, believing they cannot affect change, and resist 'ascending' (leaving inceldom) because it would undermine their collective identity and force them back into the anxiety-inducing mating market.
The discussion explores why 80% of involuntarily childless women report it was unintentional, often the result of leaving partner-finding too late — a phenomenon documented in the 'Birth Gap' documentary. The pill and other birth control technologies have shifted women's life trajectories in ways that sometimes inadvertently conflict with biological fertility windows.
Bilyeu and Costello discuss the role of pornography, finding that contrary to expectations, porn use does not clearly correlate with reduced mate-seeking — the most sexually active men also use the most porn. However, retreat into virtual worlds (video games, online communities) does appear to dampen real-world social and romantic engagement. The Japanese hikikomori phenomenon is presented as a possible preview of where Western societies are heading — young men completely retreating from society, possibly enabled by absent fathers and overly protective mothers.
The conversation turns to potential technological futures: AI companions and sex robots may satisfy loneliness and sexual needs but cannot provide the status that comes from being genuinely sexually selected, which Costello argues is a core male psychological need. However, AI companions could potentially serve as training grounds for real-world romantic skills. The concept of artificial wombs is discussed, with data suggesting women are surprisingly resistant to the idea despite its emancipatory potential, due to a deep biophilia — an innate preference for natural processes.
Cross-sex theory of mind emerges as a central proposed solution to sexual conflict. Costello's lab is actively researching how accurately men and women understand each other's sexual psychology. Failures of cross-sex mind reading — from why men send unsolicited explicit photos to extreme cases like dismissive responses to rape — stem from each sex projecting their own psychology onto the other. Understanding that women experience sex as potentially costly (unlike men's 'pizza' analogy) is framed as foundational to reducing sexual conflict.
The episode also addresses the absence of coming-of-age rituals in modern society, drawing on Joseph Campbell's work and Nelson Mandela's autobiographical account of Xhosa initiation rites. Both speakers argue that the lack of ritualistic transitions from boyhood to manhood contributes to prolonged adolescence and social disengagement. The conversation concludes with reflections on free speech as a master value necessary for social self-correction, and the importance of evolutionary psychology despite frequent mischaracterization via the naturalistic fallacy.
Key Insights
- Costello argues that dating apps structurally incentivize users to remain single because their business model depends on continuous swiping, not successful matches — some apps have even run ad campaigns celebrating single life.
- Costello's research found that incels often are not actively trying to find partners — the incel identity provides genuine social benefits (community, shared lexicon, fraternity, relief from anxiety) that compete against re-engaging with the mating market.
- Costello found that suicidality, not violence toward others, is the most statistically common form of extreme incel behavior, and that even acts of violence associated with incels often resemble suicide-by-cop rather than targeted misogyny.
- Costello's research shows that incels engage in 'self-verification theory' — they actually prefer people who confirm their negative self-image over those who offer hope, because hope reintroduces the anxiety of having to try and potentially fail.
- Costello argues that pornography use does not clearly suppress mate-seeking behavior — the most sexually active men also use the most porn, making it difficult to isolate pornography as a cause of romantic disengagement.
- Costello contends that the female analog to inceldom is largely hidden in plain sight: mainstream media articles about women unable to find 'eligible' men represent a parallel phenomenon but receive cultural sympathy that male incels do not.
- Costello highlights a fundamental cross-sex psychology mismatch: men operate on a 'pizza logic' where any sex is better than no sex, while for women sex carries genuine costs, meaning involuntary celibacy is not symmetrical across sexes.
- Costello's lab is actively researching cross-sex theory of mind — how accurately each sex understands the other's sexual psychology — framing it as the foundational step to reducing sexual conflict.
- Costello argues that the modern dating market is uniquely isolating because for most of human history, family and community networks assisted with mate-finding, whereas today individuals navigate it alone through apps with no support structure.
- Costello suggests the hikikomori phenomenon in Japan — young men fully retreating from society into domestic isolation — may represent a preview of where Western societies are heading as virtual worlds become more immersive and less costly than real-world engagement.
- Costello argues that critics of evolutionary psychology often commit the naturalistic fallacy — assuming that because EP identifies dark aspects of human nature, it must be justifying them, when in fact understanding these tendencies is the only way to consciously overcome them.
- Costello suggests that AI companions could partially satisfy incels' loneliness and sexual needs but cannot provide the status that comes from being genuinely sexually selected — and that absence of status-signaling is a distinct and unresolved psychological need for men.
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