Why the Hard Right is Surging in Norway

Norway's political landscape is experiencing a significant realignment. The combined support for the country's two main parties—Labour and the Conservatives—has dropped below 40%, while the anti-immigration Progress Party has surged to 30% in polls. This represents a decade-long decline for Labour, which has fallen from 40% support in 2015 to around 20% currently. The Progress Party's rise accelerated especially since 2024, doubling from 10-15% in the late 2010s to its current levels, following their strong performance in the September 2025 parliamentary election.

The transcript provides historical context that Norway has been dominated by Labour since the 1940s, alternating with Conservative-led coalitions through much of the 20th century. The current Labour-Centre Party coalition, led by Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, has been marked by cabinet resignations, scandals, and insider trading allegations that have further damaged Labour's polling. The Progress Party itself evolved from a libertarian party founded in 1973 to an increasingly populist force focusing on anti-immigration and welfare state critique, though it contains problematic elements, as demonstrated by a May incident involving a party advisor's racist comments about Pakistani immigrants.

Two primary factors explain the Progress Party's surge. First, Norway's wealth tax has become a central political dividing line. Labour's 2021 government increased the wealth tax, generating 10 billion kroner annually but prompting record departures of wealthy investors. The 2025 election functioned as a referendum on this tax, with the Progress Party promising to scrap it entirely while Conservatives pledged only to reduce it. A recent tax commission recommendation to consolidate the current two rates into a single lower rate (0.25-0.75%) has created political embarrassment for Labour.

Second, energy policy—particularly regarding oil and gas—has become a major driver of support for the Progress Party. Norway is Europe's largest natural gas supplier (after overtaking Russia in 2022) and has earned substantially from elevated energy prices. Despite Labour's previous tensions over energy policy, Støre's government has recently shifted dramatically, approving 17 new oil and gas exploration licenses in May and calling for dropping the Arctic moratorium. However, Labour struggles to compete with the Progress Party's long-standing pro-energy stance, and this creates clear divisions within the left-wing bloc.

Contrary to patterns in other European countries, the transcript argues that immigration is not the primary driver of the Progress Party's current surge, though anti-immigration sentiment remains part of its platform. Given Norway's established strict immigration policies and the Progress Party's integration into the political mainstream, the author concludes that tax and energy issues are the principal factors currently attracting voters to the Norwegian right.