Diese 5 Aktien kontrollieren die gesamte Halbleiter-Industrie | Sektor-Check

The video opens with the striking claim that every chip produced today — whether in iPhones, Teslas, AI computers, or military drones — passes through the hands of no more than five companies. The global semiconductor industry is reported to have reached nearly $800 billion in revenue in 2025 (up 25.6% from 2024), with projections from WSTS indicating it will cross the $1 trillion mark in 2026. The presenter frames this as a sector analysis series, explaining his preference for sector-level investing over individual stock picks.

The supply chain is broken into four levels: chip design (Level 1: Nvidia, AMD), equipment manufacturing (Level 2: ASML), chip fabrication (Level 3: TSMC), and infrastructure (Level 4: Broadcom). ASML is highlighted for holding a 100% monopoly on EUV lithography machines — the technology required to manufacture modern chips — with individual machines costing around $200 million. TSMC is identified as the world's largest chip manufacturer, producing chips for Nvidia, Apple, AMD, and Qualcomm, and having begun 2nm production as of early 2026. Broadcom is noted for developing custom AI processors including Google's TPUs and Meta's chips, connecting GPUs in AI data centers.

Financially, Nvidia dominates with ~$215 billion in revenue and a forward P/E of 24x, compared to AMD's ~$34 billion revenue and a much higher forward P/E of 38x, leading the presenter to argue AMD appears overvalued relative to Nvidia. Nvidia's gross margin of 75% is described as 'absolutely brutal,' while AMD's 52% is still considered strong. TSMC has $122 billion in revenue, ASML $32 billion (in euros), and Broadcom $64 billion. AI-related revenues are substantial: Nvidia earns ~$180 billion from AI, TSMC earns ~58% from HPC/AI, Broadcom earns ~$20 billion from AI, and AMD earns ~$16 billion from data centers alone.

A bonus 'secret tip' is mentioned: LSCC (Lattice Semiconductor), a niche player specializing in low-power edge AI chips under 1 watt, with 85% growth in AI server revenue in 2025. The presenter notes it occupies a corner of the market the large players don't target.

The VANECK Semiconductor ETF is presented as the ETF solution, featuring 25 holdings, a TER of 0.35%, ~€5 billion in assets, and a non-distributing structure. The top 5 holdings (Nvidia, TSMC, ASML, Broadcom, AMD) represent ~46% of the ETF. Year-to-date performance reached ~36% versus ~5% for the MSCI World, with a 5-year return of ~232% versus ~60% for MSCI World. The presenter recommends a maximum allocation of 5–15% in a portfolio and suggests a dollar-cost averaging approach given high volatility.

Risks are rated on a 10-point scale. Geopolitics scores 8.5/10 — Taiwan produces over 90% of advanced chips globally, and a military escalation with China would halt global chip supply, affecting all five companies. Valuation risk scores 7.5/10 — forward P/Es of 24–38x already price in significant growth; if AI capex slows, corrections of 30–50% are historically plausible. Cyclicality scores 6.5/10 — the AI-driven supercycle will eventually end, as demonstrated by the sector's -14% downturn in 2023. Export restrictions score 6/10 — China was ASML's largest single market in 2024 before bans, and further restrictions on Nvidia and AMD could shrink addressable markets while accelerating China's domestic chip development. Technology disruption scores lowest at 3/10 — quantum computing and new architectures are unlikely to disrupt within 5 years but cannot be excluded over a 10–15 year horizon.