Diese 5 Aktien kontrollieren die gesamte Halbleiter-Industrie | Sektor-Check
The video analyzes the five companies that control the global semiconductor industry — Nvidia, AMD, TSMC, ASML, and Broadcom — which collectively dominate an ~$800 billion market projected to hit $1 trillion in 2026. The presenter evaluates each company's role in the chip supply chain, compares their financial metrics, and assesses the risks and a sector ETF option. Key risks identified include Taiwan's geopolitical exposure, high valuations, and export restrictions.
Summary
The video opens with the striking claim that every chip produced today — whether in iPhones, Teslas, AI computers, or military drones — passes through the hands of no more than five companies. The global semiconductor industry is reported to have reached nearly $800 billion in revenue in 2025 (up 25.6% from 2024), with projections from WSTS indicating it will cross the $1 trillion mark in 2026. The presenter frames this as a sector analysis series, explaining his preference for sector-level investing over individual stock picks.
The supply chain is broken into four levels: chip design (Level 1: Nvidia, AMD), equipment manufacturing (Level 2: ASML), chip fabrication (Level 3: TSMC), and infrastructure (Level 4: Broadcom). ASML is highlighted for holding a 100% monopoly on EUV lithography machines — the technology required to manufacture modern chips — with individual machines costing around $200 million. TSMC is identified as the world's largest chip manufacturer, producing chips for Nvidia, Apple, AMD, and Qualcomm, and having begun 2nm production as of early 2026. Broadcom is noted for developing custom AI processors including Google's TPUs and Meta's chips, connecting GPUs in AI data centers.
Financially, Nvidia dominates with ~$215 billion in revenue and a forward P/E of 24x, compared to AMD's ~$34 billion revenue and a much higher forward P/E of 38x, leading the presenter to argue AMD appears overvalued relative to Nvidia. Nvidia's gross margin of 75% is described as 'absolutely brutal,' while AMD's 52% is still considered strong. TSMC has $122 billion in revenue, ASML $32 billion (in euros), and Broadcom $64 billion. AI-related revenues are substantial: Nvidia earns ~$180 billion from AI, TSMC earns ~58% from HPC/AI, Broadcom earns ~$20 billion from AI, and AMD earns ~$16 billion from data centers alone.
A bonus 'secret tip' is mentioned: LSCC (Lattice Semiconductor), a niche player specializing in low-power edge AI chips under 1 watt, with 85% growth in AI server revenue in 2025. The presenter notes it occupies a corner of the market the large players don't target.
The VANECK Semiconductor ETF is presented as the ETF solution, featuring 25 holdings, a TER of 0.35%, ~€5 billion in assets, and a non-distributing structure. The top 5 holdings (Nvidia, TSMC, ASML, Broadcom, AMD) represent ~46% of the ETF. Year-to-date performance reached ~36% versus ~5% for the MSCI World, with a 5-year return of ~232% versus ~60% for MSCI World. The presenter recommends a maximum allocation of 5–15% in a portfolio and suggests a dollar-cost averaging approach given high volatility.
Risks are rated on a 10-point scale. Geopolitics scores 8.5/10 — Taiwan produces over 90% of advanced chips globally, and a military escalation with China would halt global chip supply, affecting all five companies. Valuation risk scores 7.5/10 — forward P/Es of 24–38x already price in significant growth; if AI capex slows, corrections of 30–50% are historically plausible. Cyclicality scores 6.5/10 — the AI-driven supercycle will eventually end, as demonstrated by the sector's -14% downturn in 2023. Export restrictions score 6/10 — China was ASML's largest single market in 2024 before bans, and further restrictions on Nvidia and AMD could shrink addressable markets while accelerating China's domestic chip development. Technology disruption scores lowest at 3/10 — quantum computing and new architectures are unlikely to disrupt within 5 years but cannot be excluded over a 10–15 year horizon.
Key Insights
- The presenter argues that every chip produced globally passes through at most 5 companies, making the semiconductor sector one of the most concentrated industries in the world.
- The presenter claims AMD is currently overvalued relative to Nvidia, citing AMD's forward P/E of 38x versus Nvidia's 24x, despite AMD having far lower revenue ($34B vs $215B) and slower growth (32% vs 65% year-over-year).
- ASML holds a 100% monopoly on EUV lithography machines, which are required to manufacture any modern chip, with individual machines costing approximately $200 million — making ASML a singular chokepoint in the entire global chip supply chain.
- The presenter states that ASML does not directly earn from AI revenues, even though it manufactures the machines that make AI chips possible, distinguishing it from other companies in the value chain.
- Taiwan's concentration risk is rated 8.5 out of 10 by the presenter, who argues that a military escalation between China and Taiwan would halt global chip production, directly impacting Nvidia, AMD, TSMC, and Broadcom.
- The presenter identifies LSCC (Lattice Semiconductor) as a niche 'secret tip,' noting it specializes in sub-1-watt edge AI chips — a market segment the large players ignore — and reported 85% growth in AI server revenue in 2025.
- Nvidia earns approximately $180 billion of its ~$215 billion total revenue from AI alone, representing an extraordinary concentration of revenue in a single end market.
- The VANECK Semiconductor ETF has returned approximately 232% over five years versus ~60% for the MSCI World, but the presenter cautions this comes with extreme volatility and recommends limiting sector ETF exposure to 5–15% of a total portfolio.
Topics
Full transcript available for MurmurCast members
Sign Up to Access