Episode 47, S2: Big Matt x Little Matt Special | Finding Value in Cards
Big Matt and Little Matt discuss sports card valuation by analyzing iconic cards like the 1952 Mickey Mantle and 1984 Star Jordan, developing a framework for evaluating cards based on factors like rarity, player prominence, and market accessibility. They explore finding undervalued cards in modern products like Kabooms and vintage parallels, emphasizing that scarcity and rarity often drive long-term value more than mainstream popularity.
Summary
In this episode, Big Matt and Little Matt introduce a card evaluation index they developed based on multiple factors including card era, centering/condition, image quality, rarity, player status, and set importance. They use this framework to compare the 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle (3,326 graded copies) with the 1984 Star Michael Jordan (3,400 total graded, 689 PSA). Despite similar population numbers, the Mantle PSA 6 sold for $690,000 while the Jordan PSA 6 fetched only $102,000, yet Little Matt argues the Jordan card has 6x upside potential due to Michael Jordan's superior global recognition and longer remaining lifespan. Big Matt counters that the Mantle maintains a lead because Jordan cards are vastly oversaturated across multiple products and parallel variations. They discuss how market makers like Fanatics and Topps deliberately engineer which inserts succeed through social media promotion, and how narrative year matters significantly—for example, LeBron's 2016 Kaboom is valuable due to the Finals comeback, while 2015 was less significant. Little Matt explains his strategy of buying rare Kaboom verticals (only 26 graded) over common horizontals (900+ graded) where population differs by 60x but prices only 2x, identifying market inefficiencies. They analyze overlooked players like Cal Ripken, noting that his Soul of the Game insert sold for $82 while Kobe Bryant's identical insert fetched $2,500, suggesting significant upside in underrated Hall of Famers. The discussion extends to baseball prospects versus established players, with Little Matt frustrated by the unpredictability of prospect investments and preferring rare vintage parallels and alternative image variations. They note recent trends showing older basketball players like Shaq and Allen Iverson appreciating 300% in the past month, suggesting similar patterns may emerge in baseball with players like Chipper Jones and Tony Gwynn. The episode concludes with both agreeing that rarity and scarcity will ultimately drive value, and that forced purchases (like Little Matt's $3,300 Mercury Otani that lost $400-500) should be avoided in favor of strategic positioning during offseason opportunities.
About this episode
In this episode, Big Matt and Little Matt dive into what truly determines a card’s value. From rarity and population counts to historical significance and market demand, they break down the factors that can turn a card into an iconic collectible. Plus, they discuss current market trends and share their perspectives on how collectors and investors should evaluate cards in today’s hobby. Chapters 00:00 Introduction and episode overview 02:00 Current market hype and iconic card examples 03:06 Creating an index for iconic card recognition 07:00 Ranking iconic cards: Mickey Mantle vs Michael Jordan 10:02 Analyzing pop counts and market value of legendary cards 16:50 Finding value in modern and vintage cards 22:59 The significance of rarity and serial numbers 29:56 The influence of market trends and nostalgia 36:01 Opportunities in deep-value and rare cards 42:55 Future market predictions and strategic buying ______________________________________________________________________ Visit our website: https://thesportscardceo.com/ Email us your questions! [email protected] Listen and Subscribe to the pod! Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-sports-card-ceo-podcast/id1793644263 Spotify: http: https://open.spotify.com/show/0TVcjeAz2nG0BswCNSR9ZY?si=4177b30b6f264b61 Follow Us: Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thesportscardceo X: https://x.com/SportscardCeo https://www.instagram.com/hamhousesports https://www.instagram.com/thebowmanfarmer https://www.instagram.com/kernscards Subscribe to our other YouTube channels! Just Baseball: https://www.youtube.com/@JustBaseballMedia The Call Up: https://www.youtube.com/@TheCallUpPod Just Baseball Originals: https://www.youtube.com/@JustBaseballOriginals Just Gridiron Fans: https://www.youtube.com/@JustGridironFans #baseball #sportscards #collectables
Key Insights
- Little Matt claims the 1984 Star Jordan has 6x upside potential compared to the 1952 Mickey Mantle despite the Mantle currently selling for $690k versus Jordan at $102k, because Michael Jordan has superior global recognition and will impact the world longer as a living person.
- Big Matt argues that Michael Jordan cards cannot achieve Mantle prices long-term because the total market capitalization for Jordan is distributed among thousands of different card variations (35 cards in Skybox alone, autographs, patches with low numbers), whereas Mantle only had approximately 30-35 total cards ever produced during his 15-year production run.
- Little Matt identifies a specific market inefficiency where 2024 Patrick Mahomes Kaboom vertical cards number only 15 graded copies but cost only 2x the price of horizontal variants with 900 graded copies, representing 60x population difference with only 2x price difference.
- Big Matt claims that Fanatics and Topps deliberately engineer which inserts succeed by posting promotional images on their official social media accounts, citing how they elevated the Minion card by featuring Steph Curry and Cooper Flag variants prominently before release.
- Little Matt argues that the 2024 Shohei Ohtani Topps Chrome Bowman variants he referenced are 100x more common than the rare Shohei SSP cards showing him hitting or pitching, yet these SSP variants sell for comparable prices, suggesting massive undervaluation of the rare image variants.
- Big Matt purchased a Cal Ripken Soul of the Game insert for $82 while noting that an identical Kobe Bryant Soul of the Game insert sold for $2,500, yet Ripken is a Hall of Famer, demonstrating what he considers an irrational market valuation disparity.
- Little Matt states that recent basketball market trends show Shaquille O'Neal and Allen Iverson cards appreciating 300% in the past month, moving from $2,000 to $10,000, and predicts that baseball will follow similar patterns with players like Chipper Jones and Cal Ripken eventually becoming the focus after Griffey and Bonds.
- Little Matt admits to forcing a $3,300 Mercury Ohtani purchase that resulted in a $400-500 loss, attributing this to trying to make a deal rather than waiting for genuine value, and commits to only buying when he has strong conviction on card value.
Topics
Transcript
[0:00] What's going on, friends? This is Little Matt and Big Matt. Welcome back to Sports Card CEO. Did he win again? Acuña is back. Oh yes, Lindor again. Here he is. He did it. A 40-70 season and a season unlike any other in Major League Baseball history for Ronald Acuna Jr. Right [0:32] after Evan Carter, a powerful attack started, and what a fast season he's having. He hits hard. He hits a mile to the left. Mike Trout hit a home run . How are you guys? This is Mike Trout, and you're listening to the CEO of Sports Card. This is Kurt, Bubba, and Hand . Uh, Little Matt and I were talking a little bit…
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