10 Sports Cards I Would NEVER Buy at Today’s Prices
A sports card investor advises against buying 10 popular high-priced cards despite their iconic status, arguing that their large populations make them vulnerable to market corrections. Instead, he recommends investing in rarer alternatives by the same players that offer better durability and long-term value.
Summary
The host presents a detailed analysis of 10 sports cards that should be avoided at current market prices, despite their fame and desirability. He frames the discussion around lessons learned from the 2021 sports card market crash, when the most expensive and high-population cards suffered the steepest declines.
Starting with the 1986 Michael Jordan Fleer card, he explains that despite being one of the most famous cards ever produced, its 51,000 graded copies and 340+ PSA 10s make it dangerously vulnerable. The card dropped from $700,000 to under $300,000 in just four months during the 2021 crash. He recommends instead the 1984 Star Michael Jordan card, which has fewer than 2,000 graded copies and is significantly rarer, offering better durability in a market downturn.
For basketball, he discusses the 2003 LeBron James Topps Chrome base cards (overpopulated and common among casual collectors) and recommends rarer alternatives like the 2003 Topps Chrome black card or numbered parallels from 2004-2009 Topps Chrome. Similarly, the 1996 Topps Kobe Bryant crashed from over $10,000 to under $1,000 during the 2021 correction and currently sits around $3,000, despite having nearly 5,500 PSA 10 copies. He suggests looking at Kobe's 1997-1999 inserts or Topps Chrome cards from the 2000s instead.
In baseball, the 1989 Upper Deck Ken Griffey Jr. rookie has 129,000 estimated copies with over 4,200 PSA 10s, making it extremely common despite its iconic status. He recommends buying PSA 9 copies and using the savings to purchase rarer Griffey cards, or exploring his 1990s inserts and Topps/Bowman Tiffany variants.
For football, the 2000 Bowman Tom Brady, despite being iconic, has nearly 16,000 graded copies. He suggests SP Authentic numbered to 1250, Bowman variants (Rookie of the Year promotion or gold versions), or Topps Chrome numbered cards from the 2000s-early 2010s as superior alternatives.
He provides a personal example with Giannis Antetokounmpo, explaining how his 2013 Prizm base card PSA 10 hasn't recovered from the 2021 crash while the rarer 2013 Stained Glass Gold insert has appreciated significantly, proving the durability advantage of rarer cards.
For Shohei Ohtani, he warns against the 2018 Topps Chrome (16,000+ graded) despite strong demand, recommending the rarer 2017 World Baseball Classic Bowman Mega Box instead. For Peyton Manning and Kevin Durant, he similarly recommends rarer variants and numbered parallels over their respective base rookie cards.
Finally, he discusses vintage autographed cards of deceased players, noting that while unsigned cards like the 1933 Goudey Babe Ruth (8,000+ graded) are common, authenticated autographs of vintage cards are extremely rare (fewer than 30 for many legendary cards), making them potentially better long-term investments despite higher prices.
About this episode
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Key Insights
- The 1986 Michael Jordan Fleer card crashed from $700,000 to under $300,000 in just 4 months during the 2021 correction, representing a 50% loss in value, making it the most glaring example of what happens when supply is large during market slowdowns.
- The 1986 Michael Jordan Fleer has over 51,000 graded copies with 340+ PSA 10s, making it the easiest Jordan card for collectors to sell and replace during a market downturn, which increases its vulnerability to being dumped by panicked sellers.
- The 1984 Star Michael Jordan has fewer than 2,000 total graded copies compared to 51,000 for the 1986 Fleer, and fewer than 600 PSA graded copies total, providing significantly better rarity and durability despite lower grades selling for comparable prices.
- The 1996 Topps Kobe Bryant reached over $10,000 in PSA 10 during the 2021 peak but crashed to less than $1,000 and has only recovered to around $3,000 today, with 5,500 PSA 10 copies existing, demonstrating the poorest recovery performance among high-population cards.
- The 1989 Upper Deck Ken Griffey Jr. has 129,000 estimated copies with over 4,200 PSA 10s, yet the market charges $5,000-$6,000 for PSA 10 while PSA 9 sells for under $500, creating an artificial premium for high grades on common cards.
- A personal investment in Giannis Antetokounmpo's 2013 Stained Glass Gold insert has significantly outperformed his 2013 Prizm base PSA 10 card since 2020, with the rarer insert appreciating while the common base card has declined and not recovered.
- Vintage autographed cards of players deceased for 20+ years are extremely rare, with fewer than 30 authenticated copies existing for cards like the 1933 Goudey Babe Ruth and 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle despite thousands of unsigned copies being graded.
- Cards that suffered the most brutal crashes during the 2021 market collapse and have yet to recover to their 2021 highs are the best cards to avoid buying at today's prices, as history indicates which cards are most vulnerable to future corrections.
Topics
Transcript
[0:01] There are a few sports cards that I absolutely adore, but I definitely would n't buy them today. Not because they are bad cards. In fact, some of them are among the most famous cards of all time. Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant , Tom Brady, Ken Griffey Jr. These are exactly the players I want to collect and invest in. But there comes a point when the price of the card gets too high, the population gets too large, or the alternatives become [0:31] so much more attractive that I just can't justify investing my money in them. And we've reached that point now, having some of the most collectible cards. So today I'm going to share with you…
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