"Stone Island wächst" - TSMC vs ASML, Vernova & Siemens, Tesla, SpaceX, Coinbase

The episode opens with a discussion of SpaceX/Elon Musk structuring an unusual deal to potentially acquire AI coding startup Cursor for $60 billion, with a $10 billion breakup fee if the deal falls through. The host notes the timing coincides with Google reportedly forming a strike team to catch up in AI coding tools, suggesting this is a highly contested and lucrative market. The unusually high breakup fee is speculated to relate to Musk's prior behavior during the Twitter acquisition, where he attempted to exit the deal.

GE Vernova reported strong quarterly results, with power sector orders growing 60% to approximately $10 billion, including $2.4 billion in data center-related orders in a single quarter — more than all of the prior year combined. This drove GE Vernova's stock up 10% and Siemens Energy up 5%. ABB also reported a 50% rise in orders in its electrification segment to record levels. The host compares valuations, noting Vernova trades at roughly 30x expected 2028 earnings versus Siemens Energy at about 20x. Adobe announced a $25 billion share buyback program (roughly 25% of outstanding shares), which the host interprets as a management signal of confidence but cautions does not eliminate long-term AI competitive risk. Boeing delivered more aircraft than Airbus in Q1 2025 for the first time since 2023, aided by Airbus supply chain issues, and announced plans to ramp up 737 MAX production. TSMC indicated it will not immediately adopt ASML's newest EUV machines (priced at €350 million) as it can still extract sufficient performance from existing equipment, causing a slight dip in ASML shares while TSMC rose 5%. Tesla reported better-than-expected margins in its core auto business post-market, with car sales up 16% year-over-year but down sequentially, while energy business sales declined.

The episode then pivots to a detailed look at Moncler and its Stone Island brand. Stone Island, founded in 1982 and acquired by Moncler for just under €1 billion in 2020, generated €400 million in revenue in 2025, growing 4% overall but 16% in Q4. The host highlights significant growth potential: Stone Island has only 95 global stores versus Moncler's nearly 300, and European stores generate four times the revenue of Asian stores despite Asia having 54 locations. Asia grew over 20% in 2025. By contrast, Moncler's flagship brand grew only ~3% despite collaborations with artists like A$AP Rocky. Overall group revenue grew 12%, compared to LVMH's 6% decline in Q1. Moncler trades at 23x expected earnings versus a 5-year average of around 27x, presenting what the host describes as an interesting entry point given Stone Island's Asian growth runway.

The final section covers three major crypto themes. First, Coinbase's AI agent infrastructure: its X402 protocol allows AI agents to hold and transact via crypto wallets, and the platform has already facilitated $50 million in agent-to-agent payments. Coinbase also launched an 'agentic marketplace' for AI tools. However, the host warns that despite these innovations, Coinbase's stock still trades primarily as an indirect Bitcoin bet. Second, prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are encroaching on crypto exchanges' core business by launching perpetual futures products, intensifying competition. Third, major hacks continue to plague the crypto space: roughly $300 million was stolen from Drift in early April, and another $300 million was taken from Aave, causing over $10 billion in customer withdrawals from a platform that had $26 billion deposited. The host suggests these incidents could give traditional financial firms pause as they consider crypto expansion.