"Chip-Boom x Texas & Intel. KI-Angst x SAP & ServiceNow" - Nestlé, L’Oréal, NBA-Wette

The episode opens with a recap of the stock market day on April 24th, summarizing the day's theme as: chips booming, software still suffering, and consumer goods finally stabilizing.

On the chip side, Texas Instruments delivered exceptional results, with its stock rising roughly 20% — the largest single-day gain since April 2001. The company benefits not from high-end AI chips but from industrial and automotive chips. Their AI-adjacent business (chips managing electricity flow) grew 90% in Q1, but the bigger story was broad-based industrial recovery across all regions, industries, and customer sizes. Infineon also rose over 5% on the news. Texas Instruments is additionally benefiting from a timing advantage: heavy capital investments in new factories made in recent years are now winding down just as demand recovers. SK Hynix also posted doubled profits in memory chips, though its stock barely moved given already high expectations. After market close, Intel added 15% due to stronger-than-expected CPU demand and interest in its contract manufacturing capabilities.

On the software side, ServiceNow triggered a broad selloff despite posting decent numbers, losing 20% and dragging down Salesforce, Intuit, Adobe, and Snowflake by around 5%. The concern centered on AI monetization: while ServiceNow projected $1.5 billion in AI-related sales for the full year, AI labs like OpenAI and Anthropic added $5 billion in a single quarter. This comparison, though aggressive, illustrates why investors are nervous. ServiceNow's market cap has dropped from nearly $250 billion in early 2025 to $90 billion, and its valuation multiple has compressed from 50x to 20x expected profit. SAP initially fell 6% in sympathy but recovered nearly 10% after market close on solid results: cloud revenue up ~30% and profits up ~20%, plus accelerated share buybacks of €2.6 billion against a €10 billion program running until 2027.

Meta announced it would lay off 8,000 employees (10% of staff) and leave 6,000 positions unfilled to cut costs amid heavy AI investment. Microsoft also cut 7% of its workforce, with special packages offered to longer-tenured or older employees.

L'Oréal's stock rose 10% after organic revenue grew 7%, and the CEO cited the 'lipstick effect' — in difficult economic times, consumers indulge in small affordable luxuries like beauty products for a dopamine boost, particularly visible in Europe.

Nestlé rose 5% after stronger results, led by nearly 10% coffee sales growth driven by Nescafé, which the CEO called the 'star of the portfolio.' However, structural challenges remain: China sales have declined for six to seven years, with local competitors gaining ground and falling birth rates hurting baby food. A Financial Times report alleged Nestlé overstuffed Chinese retailers to hit sales targets. The company has also seen two CEO changes in two years and a global baby food recall. New CEO Philipp Navratil (former Nespresso head) is pursuing a portfolio simplification strategy — selling Blue Bottle Coffee to Centurion Capital (the investor that rescued Luckin Coffee), offloading the water business, and returning the Anchor Graut spice brand to its founders. The focus is returning to core categories: coffee, pet food, and snacks. Despite the positive day, Nestlé's stock remains ~5% down year-to-date, valued at €210 billion or 17x expected earnings, with a 4% dividend yield.

Finally, the episode explores Rogers Communications as an unusual indirect investment in North American sports. Rogers, Canada's largest mobile operator with 11 million customers, holds stakes in the Toronto Raptors (NBA, valued at ~$5.5 billion), Toronto Maple Leafs (NHL, ~$4.5 billion), Toronto Blue Jays (MLB), and Toronto FC (MLS). Forbes values the combined sports portfolio at $13 billion; Rogers' own management estimates their share at $12–15 billion. Rogers' total stock market value is only $18 billion, meaning the telecom business is essentially being valued at near zero. However, Rogers carries over $25 billion in net debt from its 2023 acquisition of Shaw, against an operating profit of $3.5–4.5 billion, making it a leveraged and complex bet. Revenue has grown ~8% annually over five years largely through acquisitions, and organic growth is limited. Rogers is reportedly exploring spinning out its sports assets into a separate entity.