Inside the Booming Market for Dinosaur Fossils
Bloomberg's Odd Lots podcast hosts Tracy Allaway and Joe Weisenthal interview Salomon Aaron, director of David Aaron Gallery and the Dinosaur Fossil Gallery, about the booming market for dinosaur fossils. The conversation covers market structure, provenance requirements, pricing dynamics, and the tension between private collecting and scientific access. Aaron explains how the market has exploded in recent years, driven by high-profile auction results and a new generation of tech-wealthy collectors.
Summary
The episode opens with hosts Tracy Allaway and Joe Weisenthal engaging in a playful debate about whether birds are descended from dinosaurs and whether pterodactyls are technically dinosaurs before introducing their guest, Salomon Aaron of the David Aaron Gallery in London, which specializes in antiquities, Islamic art, and dinosaur fossils.
Aaron contextualizes the dinosaur fossil market as a relatively underdeveloped space that is beginning to resemble more mature art markets, but still lacks the depth of research, pricing comparables, and standardized rules around condition, authenticity, and provenance. He notes the market has boomed over the past decade, with prices exploding particularly after the 2020-2021 Christie's sale of the T-Rex skeleton 'Stan' for $31 million, compared to the prior record of $8 million set by 'Sue' in the early 2000s. Subsequent landmark sales include 'Big John' the Triceratops at ~$8 million, a Raptor called Hector at ~$12 million, and the Apex T-Rex purchased by Ken Griffin for $45 million.
Aaron describes the sourcing process in detail, explaining that his gallery focuses exclusively on American fossils because U.S. law clearly permits the sale of fossils found on private land with proper permissions. He outlines rigorous provenance requirements including GPS coordinates, land deeds, sale agreements between hunters and landowners, video documentation of finds in situ, and third-party paleontologist verification. This due diligence framework was imported from the antiquities trade where his family has deep experience.
On completeness and condition, Aaron explains that fossils are almost never found intact and are assembled with resin or 3D-printed bones to fill gaps. He criticizes misleading bone maps that show a bone as 'present' even when only 5% of it exists, and describes his gallery's practice of having conservators document the exact percentage of each bone that is original. He argues that buyers should focus on key anatomically significant bones (like horns on a Triceratops or teeth on a T-Rex) rather than overall completeness percentages.
The discussion covers the buyer demographic, which Aaron describes as skewing younger and more tech/science-oriented than typical antiquities collectors, with many being Jurassic Park-era enthusiasts. He expresses a preference for working with museums, noting that his gallery gives museums first right of refusal on specimens and has facilitated private donors funding museum acquisitions, including a potentially new species now on loan to Colchester Museum in the UK and a specimen sold to the Natural History Museum in London via a private donor.
Aaron cautions against purely speculative buying, citing unpredictable variables like potential regulatory changes and resale difficulties. He also warns against investing in excavation expeditions directly due to high risks including the possibility of sellers withholding bones for later extortion. He notes that carnivorous dinosaur fossils command premium prices due to their 'scary' aesthetic appeal, while acknowledging that iconic herbivores like Triceratops are also highly sought after.
The episode closes with a discussion about the universality of dinosaur interest compared to art market trends, the possibility of paleontology becoming a more viable career path as the market grows, and a humorous exchange about whether scientists might eventually revive extinct species.
Key Insights
- Aaron argues that the 2020-2021 Christie's sale of the T-Rex 'Stan' for $31 million was a watershed moment that caused prices across the entire fossil market to explode, with the prior record having sat at $8 million for nearly two decades.
- Aaron claims that rising fossil prices are actually increasing the supply of dinosaur fossils, because higher valuations make previously uneconomical excavations financially viable for hunters and landowners.
- Aaron contends that the bone map system used widely in the industry is fundamentally misleading, because a bone can be listed as 'present' even when only 5% of it exists, making specimens appear far more complete than they are.
- Aaron argues that the private fossil trade is net positive for science and museums, because many dinosaurs would never be discovered without commercial incentives, and private collectors can be channeled into funding museum acquisitions.
- Aaron describes a practice where sellers have withheld bones during excavation and then called months later demanding premium prices for the withheld pieces, characterizing this as a recurring extortion risk in the industry.
- Aaron asserts that carnivorous dinosaur fossils command significantly higher prices than herbivores because collectors specifically seek specimens with an intimidating, 'scary' aesthetic, with T-Rex skulls having a queue of five or six pre-committed buyers waiting for any specimen in good condition.
- Aaron observes that the dinosaur fossil buyer demographic is notably younger and more concentrated in tech and science industries than buyers in the antiquities or Islamic art markets, and attributes this partly to the Jurassic Park generation reaching wealth.
- Aaron warns against speculative fossil buying by citing the possibility that the U.S. government could shut down the private trade entirely, which could either massively inflate or destroy values depending on the regulatory outcome.
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