Hollywood Was Cooked Before AI, and Now It's Only Getting Worse
Hayes Davenport, a TV writer and creative director, discusses Hollywood's declining production metrics, the shift from network TV to streaming, shrinking writer's rooms, and the emerging threat of AI to creative industries. He illustrates how reduced shoot days in LA have cascading effects on the local economy and cultural output.
Summary
In this live Odd Lots podcast episode recorded at the Vermont Theater in Hollywood, hosts Tracy Alloway and Joe Wiesenthal interview Hayes Davenport, a writer for shows like Family Guy and Eastbound and Down. The conversation centers on Hollywood's economic decline over the past eight years.
Davenport presents key production metrics showing LA shoot days peaked at 40,000 in 2016, declined to 37,000 by 2019, collapsed during the pandemic, recovered in 2021, then fell again due to 2023 strikes to just under 20,000 in 2024—essentially cutting production in half. He attributes the 2016-2019 decline to the rise of streaming platforms like Netflix and Amazon replacing traditional network and cable productions. Comedy Central, for example, no longer produces new shows at the rates it once did.
The conversation explores how writer's rooms have shrunk dramatically. Family Guy employed 30 writers when Davenport worked there; now seven writers constitutes a large room. This shift reflects both economic pressures and new WGA contract requirements that mandate minimum room sizes and durations when triggered. Individual creators like Mike White now write entire prestige shows alone, a model that would be nearly impossible for comedy that relies on collaborative joke-pitching and voice performance.
Davenport explains how production has migrated away from LA due to tax incentives in other locations—North Carolina, South Carolina, Vancouver, and notably Dublin, Ireland, which now hosts many American game shows and network comedies. Despite LA having substantial studio infrastructure built during the 2016-2019 period (including a major complex near the 101 and Santa Monica), demand hasn't materialized to fill it.
The decline has significant ripple effects throughout the LA economy beyond just writer employment. Production slowdowns affect restaurants that relied on catering lunch orders from writer's rooms and film sets, tourism (as fewer shows means fewer recognizable locations being filmed), and neighborhoods featured in shows like Insecure that drew people to experience those areas. Davenport notes that during his time in LA City Hall (2021-2024), he witnessed how the entertainment industry, while comprising about 20% of the local economy, has deep interconnections with the broader business ecosystem.
Regarding AI, Davenport indicates Hollywood is "the least AI-friendly" city in the country regarding generative AI, partly due to job threats to below-the-line workers (hair, makeup, set design, grips). While AI hasn't yet written scripts or appeared in studio writer's rooms, it can currently produce outlines. Comedy is the hardest genre for AI to tackle, but Davenport notes that comedy is simultaneously in decline as a production category. The WGA contract includes AI protections, but enforcement challenges exist since writers can use tools privately.
The discussion touches on broader cultural shifts: the monoculture has fragmented, making it harder for new "George Clooneys" to emerge. Celebrities are now largely invisible except at farmers markets, contrasting with the 1990s when they frequented restaurants and nightlife venues. Shows like Ingrid Goes West are now time capsules of an LA lifestyle that no longer exists in the same way.
Davenport reflects that horror has become Hollywood's most vibrant genre, partly because mid-budget horror films are commercially viable with theatrical potential—unlike comedy, which lacks perceived box office upside. He also notes that while his work writing comedy prepared him for understanding group dynamics, his City Hall experience was entirely different, involving more mobility and absurdity.
About this episode
<p>Is Hollywood just screwed? Writers are earning less. There are fewer shoots taking place in Los Angeles. And people are freaked out about AI. But according to Hayes Davenport, things were starting to feel bad in Hollywood before chatbots showed up to the scene. Davenport — who’s written for shows like Family Guy and is now creative director of LA Material and the co-host of the fantastic Hollywood Handbook podcast — joined us on stage at the Vermont to give us a history lesson on Hollywood's steady decline from the pandemic to now. We also get into the changing norms of AI use among entertainment professionals and why Davenport is jealous of New York right now.</p> <p>Read more:<br /><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-20/jon-voight-spent-months-courting-trump-on-tax-help-for-hollywood?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=podcast&utm_campaign=odd_lots&utm_content=article">Jon Voight Spent Months Courting Trump on Tax Help for Hollywood</a><br /><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-21/paramount-to-settle-lawsuits-paving-way-for-warner-bros-merger?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=podcast&utm_campaign=odd_lots&utm_content=article">Paramount to Settle Lawsuits, Paving Way for Warner Bros.</a></p> <p>Only <a href="http://bloomberg.com/">Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News</a> subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots?in_source=oddlotspodcast">bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots</a></p> <p><a href="http://bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots">Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter</a><br /><strong>Join the conversation:</strong> <a href="https://discord.gg/oddlots">discord.gg/oddlots</a></p><p>See <a href="https://omnystudio.com/listener">omnystudio.com/listener</a> for privacy information.</p>
Key Insights
- LA shoot days have declined from 40,000 in 2016 to under 20,000 in 2024, representing a 50% reduction in production activity despite new studio infrastructure being built during the 2016-2019 period.
- The rise of streaming platforms like Netflix and Amazon from 2016-2019 caused traditional network and cable productions to shrink, fundamentally reshaping which types of shows get greenlit.
- Writer's rooms on shows like Family Guy have contracted from 30 writers to rooms where 7 writers is considered large, a change driven by both economic pressure and new union contract requirements.
- Production has migrated internationally to places like Dublin, Ireland, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Vancouver primarily due to tax breaks and lower labor costs, not because LA lacks studio space.
- The entertainment industry decline has cascading effects on the broader LA economy through restaurant closings, reduced tourism, and neighborhood-level economic impacts when shows that brought attention to specific areas cease production.
- AI currently cannot write comedy effectively but can produce outlines for other genres, and comedy is simultaneously the genre most threatened by job losses and declining production investment.
- Hollywood's cultural export has weakened—LA no longer dominates social media content creation the way New York does, and it no longer creates the monoculture of mainstream stars that characterized the 1990s.
- Horror has become Hollywood's most economically viable genre because mid-budget horror films have strong theatrical revenue potential, whereas comedy lacks comparable box office appeal to justify studio investment.
Topics
Transcript
There are some market stories where you want every detail. Joe and I have made quite a few podcasts on that basis, but sometimes you've only got 10 minutes and just want to know what's moving markets fast. That's the Barclays Brief podcast. Every week, experts from Barclays Markets and Research get you up to speed on what's happening and what to watch next. Concise, focused, and brief. Search Barclays Brief wherever you get your podcasts. and turn a goal into finished work. It's designed to help you move from a chaotic starting point to a reviewable first version. So all the source materials, briefs, and scattered information that you have to grind through to turn into something useful can…
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