The Modern Football Graveyard.
A sports card collector discusses the poor performance of ultra-modern NFL quarterbacks and argues that investors should sell most football cards before the season starts rather than holding them hoping for price appreciation. The speaker analyzes specific players like Caleb Williams, Justin Herbert, Jackson Dart, and Jaden Daniels, highlighting how injuries and underperformance have devastated card values.
Summary
The video opens with a sponsorship message for The Penny Sleeper card storage products before diving into analysis of the current NFL quarterback landscape. The host criticizes several highly-hyped young quarterbacks whose card values were inflated during the preseason but have since underperformed or been injured.
Justin Herbert receives particular criticism for not delivering on expectations despite his Prismatic Silver card selling for around $1,500-$1,600 at season start. The host questions why Herbert's cards commanded such high prices given his actual on-field performance, attributing some of his pre-season hype to his personal life rather than football ability.
Jackson Dart is described as "an absolute lunatic" prone to injury due to his reckless playing style. The host recounts drafting him opposite to a close friend in their fantasy league, noting that everyone in their circle knew Dart's injury-prone tendencies. Dart suffered a season-ending injury early in the season.
Jaden Daniels is presented as talented but cursed, compared to Robert Griffin III—both had magical rookie seasons followed by devastating injuries. Daniels has suffered multiple elbow dislocations, with his arm bending back and snapping when his elbow dislocates. The host expresses sympathy for Daniels investors who held cards expecting a breakout season.
Caleb Williams' trajectory illustrates the volatile nature of quarterback card investing. He started at $1,500, peaked at $2,000 after a strong first week, dropped to $1,500 after a scary injury, then recovered slightly to $1,625 as injury concerns lessened.
The core investment thesis presented is that investors should sell most football cards before the season starts, keeping only cheap speculation plays on backup quarterbacks who might get inserted into games. The speaker argues that highly-priced cards like Herbert's need unrealistic performance to justify their valuations, making them poor investments. Historical examples support this approach: Burrow and Dak Prescott cards became cheap during the season before potentially spiking during playoff runs.
The host acknowledges the temptation to hold cards and regret selling them if a player succeeds, using the hypothetical of selling Tyler Shaq cards that could become $3,000 cards if the Saints made a deep playoff run. However, he argues that the losses avoided by selling high-profile quarterback cards early outweigh the occasional miss on a breakout player.
The speaker contrasts football card investing with basketball and baseball, noting that football is uniquely built for overreaction due to having only one game per week. He advocates for focusing on position players like receivers (Denzel Boston example) rather than quarterbacks or running backs, or building personal collections of established Hall of Famers like Jim Brown and Joe Thomas.
The video concludes by soliciting audience opinions on how they're navigating the modern football card market—whether they avoid it completely, double down, or search for promising players.
Key Insights
- Justin Herbert's $1,500-$1,600 Prismatic Silver card was overvalued at the start of the season given that he was a 2020 rookie six years later still failing to perform, representing a fundamentally flawed investment based on outdated preseason pricing
- Caleb Williams' card prices spiked to $2,000 after a strong week one performance but dropped back to $1,500 after a serious injury scare, demonstrating the extreme volatility and risk of holding high-priced quarterback cards into the season
- Highly-priced quarterback cards at season start require unrealistic levels of performance to justify their valuations, making it mathematically unlikely that investors will see returns on cards like Herbert's $1,600 Prismatic Silver
- Jackson Dart's injury-prone playing style was predictable to experienced collectors, and his season-ending injury means he lost another year of player development as a second-year player, compounding the investment loss
- Football is uniquely prone to overreaction compared to basketball and baseball because players only compete once per week, causing script changes for players to happen very quickly when results don't meet expectations
Topics
Transcript
[0:00] Ah, YouTubers. Instead of talking about fake cards, let's talk about terrible quarterbacks . Today we're just going to talk a little bit about the current state of ultra-modern football. My God. Before we get too deep, let's welcome today's video sponsor , The Penny Sleeper. Come on in to The Penny Sleeper. Link in the description below. You can use the code Neo2026 to get 10% off . And they just put together a small set. Do n't want to deal with the assessment? I understand. I don't [0:31] blame you. Leave these things raw if you want. If it's just for your PC, don't waste your money on an evaluation. They could be displayed beautifully in The…
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The Hobby Is Turning Its Attention to Football Cards
The speaker analyzes how the sports card hobby's attention has shifted from vintage cards ("the goats") to ultramodern football cards after the NFL season started, with players like Caleb Williams and Jackson Dart seeing 20-30% price increases. He cautions against chasing these gains, explaining that in-season football card speculation is essentially unregulated prop betting, and suggests the market may shift similarly to NBA cards when that season begins.
Beckett is Kind of Back?
Beckett has reopened with base and standard submission tiers at their previous prices after a shutdown on September 15th. The company is implementing a dynamic demand model that will temporarily close overloaded service tiers to maintain posted turnaround times. The speaker emphasizes that accurate communication and hitting stated turnaround times are more important to him than pricing.
Is It Time to Sell All Our Cards?
The speaker discusses whether baseball card collectors should sell their cards ahead of an anticipated 2025 MLB labor stoppage. He shares his personal strategy of liquidating speculative holdings while keeping sentimental cards, and explores how a potential work stoppage could significantly impact card prices across the market.
Beckett Offline, Fanatics Robbed, Pop Culture Cards Keep Climbing.
A collectibles industry update covering Beckett's unexplained week-long website outage, Fanatics' record-breaking debut patch auction sales, a robbery at a London card shop, and an explosive pop culture card market with Disney Chrome cards selling for unprecedented prices.
The Ungraded Truth 23: Non-Sport Card Mania
The Ungraded Truth Podcast covers the explosive non-sport trading card market boom, featuring discussions on Marvel cards, animation cels, video games, and original art collecting. The hosts analyze market dynamics at Collector Summit in Las Vegas, examine specific high-value sales, and share their personal collecting strategies for the next few months as potential MCU movie hype could drive comic book value increases.