The Hobby Is Turning Its Attention to Football Cards
The speaker analyzes how the sports card hobby's attention has shifted from vintage cards ("the goats") to ultramodern football cards after the NFL season started, with players like Caleb Williams and Jackson Dart seeing 20-30% price increases. He cautions against chasing these gains, explaining that in-season football card speculation is essentially unregulated prop betting, and suggests the market may shift similarly to NBA cards when that season begins.
Summary
The speaker opens by noting that prior to the NFL season, the hobby obsessively focused on vintage cards of retired players (Jordan, Kobe, LeBron, Brady, Shaq) while completely ignoring ultramodern football players like Jackson Dart, Caleb Williams, and CJ Stroud. Dealers stocked inventory based on this demand, filling cases with vintage cards rather than current player rookies. However, just one week into the NFL season, FOMO (fear of missing out) has driven rapid price increases on cards of players performing well, with Caleb Williams and Jackson Dart cards up approximately 20-30% on popular versions, with some rare variants up even more.
The speaker characterizes this in-season flipping as essentially unregulated prop betting, comparing it to sports wagering but without age restrictions or regulatory oversight. He argues that this activity represents speculation passing cards to the next buyer rather than genuine collecting. While acknowledging that some smart money bought undervalued ultramodern cards at the National before the season when prices were flat, he stresses the enormous risk involved—had these players performed poorly, prices would be down significantly instead.
The speaker emphasizes his long-standing preference for selling ultramodern football inventory before the season starts rather than holding through play, as the risk of injury and poor performance typically outweighs potential gains. He notes there are always winners and losers, but historically he's found selling before the season to be the less risky approach. The one exception is true prospecting on players you have strong conviction about with cheap entry points.
Finally, the speaker suggests applying this lesson to the NBA market, which is roughly six weeks away from its season start. He theorizes that if the football market is overreacting in-season to player performance, the NBA market will likely behave similarly. He expresses interest in examining whether NBA cards of young players (Victor Wembanyama, Luca Dončić, Jayson Tatum, Tyrese Haliburton) might present prospecting opportunities before the hype builds during the season, though he hasn't committed to doing so.
About this episode
Football cards are starting to pull serious attention again, and the market feels like it may be entering a new phase. In this video, I take a look at what’s driving the renewed interest, which players and cards are getting the most attention, and whether this is the beginning of a broader shift in the hobby. We’ll also talk about where the money appears to be moving, what collectors should be watching, and whether football cards can keep building momentum from here. Let me know in the comments: are you buying football cards right now, or are you still focused on other parts of the hobby? https://www.thepennysleever.com/ NEO2026 Code for 10% off 1st time customers. Go Check the Current CIA Auction here https://collectorinvestorauctions.com/ Discord: https://discord.gg/HHv7dkcB98 eBay partner link: https://ebay.us/zmiusO #ad MySlabs partner link: https://myslabs.pxf.io/nLNBJx #ad Fanatics partner link: https://fanatics.93n6tx.net/mgALb7 #ad Amazon partner link: https://amzn.to/3uh7ovE #ad PWCC partner link: https://pwccmarketplace.pxf.io/6eVAy3 #ad Link to the market movers tool set: Coupon Code NEO for $1 for your first month, partner link: https://marketmoversapp.com/neo/ #ad If you enjoy the content and want to support the channel consider becoming a member: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCkry0N3iMPzDLUBr24i4fcQ/join Follow me on Twitter & IG: Twitter: @NEOCards_Comics IG: neo_cards_comics https://www.instagram.com/?hl=en Discord: https://discord.gg/HHv7dkcB98 "As an Underdog Fantasy Associate I earn from qualifying deposits via my affilate link" “As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases.” “As an eBay Associate I earn from qualifying purchases.” “As an Fanatics Associate I earn from qualifying purchases.” “As an Topps Associate I earn from qualifying purchases.” “As an Walmart Associate I earn from qualifying purchases.”
Key Insights
- Throughout the summer before the NFL season, ultramodern football cards had no momentum or 'juice' behind them despite modest price gains of 5-20%, while all content creators and influencers were focused on buying vintage goats at card shows
- In-season football card flipping is essentially unregulated prop betting that anyone of any age can participate in without restrictions, where buyers hope a player performs well to flip cards for profit rather than hold them as a collector
- Even when smart money bought undervalued ultramodern cards at the National, they still took enormous risk because players could have performed poorly—for example, some buyers loaded up on Miles Garrett thinking he'd have an undefeated season but were wrong
- The speaker's historical pattern shows that selling ultramodern football cards before the season starts is more profitable nine times out of ten than holding through the season, and he's experienced both winning (CJ Stroud) and losing scenarios
- The speaker anticipates the NBA market will undergo a similar FOMO-driven reaction when the season starts in six weeks, with young star cards potentially seeing dramatic price increases similar to what happened with Dart and Williams in football
Topics
Transcript
[0:00] Ah, YouTube people, that sound you hear is the evil eye of Sauron shifting its gaze from the goats over to the prism silvers, the tops chrome refrators, the kaijus of ultramodern football as people have now remembered that there are actually current players playing in leagues and their card values go up when they play well. Well, not always, but in this case, as we've discussed basically since the [0:32] leadup to the national, nobody really cared about the ultramodern football market. It was the narrative online was the goats, the goats, the goats, the goats, the goats. No one cared about Jackson Dart or Caleb Williams or CJ Strad or insert whatever other young man you want…
Full transcript available for MurmurCast members
Sign Up to AccessMore from NEO Cards & Comics
Beckett is Kind of Back?
Beckett has reopened with base and standard submission tiers at their previous prices after a shutdown on September 15th. The company is implementing a dynamic demand model that will temporarily close overloaded service tiers to maintain posted turnaround times. The speaker emphasizes that accurate communication and hitting stated turnaround times are more important to him than pricing.
Is It Time to Sell All Our Cards?
The speaker discusses whether baseball card collectors should sell their cards ahead of an anticipated 2025 MLB labor stoppage. He shares his personal strategy of liquidating speculative holdings while keeping sentimental cards, and explores how a potential work stoppage could significantly impact card prices across the market.
Beckett Offline, Fanatics Robbed, Pop Culture Cards Keep Climbing.
A collectibles industry update covering Beckett's unexplained week-long website outage, Fanatics' record-breaking debut patch auction sales, a robbery at a London card shop, and an explosive pop culture card market with Disney Chrome cards selling for unprecedented prices.
The Ungraded Truth 23: Non-Sport Card Mania
The Ungraded Truth Podcast covers the explosive non-sport trading card market boom, featuring discussions on Marvel cards, animation cels, video games, and original art collecting. The hosts analyze market dynamics at Collector Summit in Las Vegas, examine specific high-value sales, and share their personal collecting strategies for the next few months as potential MCU movie hype could drive comic book value increases.
Fanatics Accidentally Included an Inventory List in a Sealed Case Sent to a Breaker
A Fanatics packing slip was accidentally included in a sealed Underwraps 8x10 photo product case, revealing the complete contents of the box. The speaker emphasizes this is not a trading card product and distinguishes between handpacked memorabilia and mass-produced randomized card products, though he acknowledges public perception will likely ignore these technical distinctions.