SUBE el PRECIO del PETRÓLEO tras la operación de EEUU

The episode opens with brief corrections from previous shows, notably clarifying that Labor Day (May 1st) is not universally celebrated, with countries like the US, UK, Israel, and Australia among those that do not observe it. The host also highlights a detailed report on Mali published by a collaborator named Borja, and promotes their geopolitics newsletter, Código Morsa.

The main geopolitical focus is the collapse of the ceasefire between the US and Iran following the launch of 'Operation Freedom Project' in the Strait of Hormuz (referred to in the transcript as the Dermood/Ormud Strait). Iran responded to the US operation — aimed at freeing trapped commercial ships — by launching missiles at US vessels near Husk Island and deploying drones that struck an oil complex in Fujairah, UAE. Both sides are presenting conflicting narratives, with Iran claiming to have forced a US warship to retreat and Washington denying this. The host notes that Trump has again raised the specter of nuclear escalation, threatening to 'wipe Iran off the face of the Earth,' a type of statement that, while alarming, is increasingly being normalized.

The episode then profiles Pakistan's Field Marshal Asim Munir as a key behind-the-scenes mediator between Iran and the United States. Munir, a military intelligence veteran whose stature grew significantly after the 2025 Pakistan-India conflict, has organized meetings in Islamabad, traveled to Tehran, and is credited with influencing Trump's extension of the April ceasefire. Despite his efforts, no firm agreements have yet been reached. The host notes that mediators like Munir, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia all have strategic interests in regional stability.

Shifting to Europe, the host discusses Ukraine's unusual proposal to voluntarily forgo EU agricultural subsidies (the Common Agricultural Policy) for up to 15 years in exchange for accelerated EU membership. Ukraine holds a quarter of all EU agricultural land, and its entry into the CAP system without restrictions would be financially disruptive for existing member states, particularly Poland and Spain. While this proposal is a diplomatic gesture of goodwill, it faces domestic criticism in Ukraine for conceding too much before negotiations even begin, and implementation without subsidies could devastate Ukrainian farms.

In the 'Shark's Corner' economics segment, the host notes that Brent crude has surpassed $114/barrel amid the Strait of Hormuz crisis. OPEC's announcement of a production increase of 188,000 barrels per day is seen as insufficient to calm markets since the core problem is supply chain disruption, not production levels. The UAE's departure from OPEC adds further uncertainty. The host cautions against impulsive investment decisions during volatile periods and promotes diversified long-term ETF strategies via their sponsor, Freedom24.

Finally, the host discusses a notable indicator of Putin's declining approval: his use of public displays of affection with children at a state event — a tactic last deployed during the Wagner Group rebellion. Despite official polls still showing over 60% approval, the host notes that even state-controlled surveys are showing a decline to Putin's weakest levels since the Ukraine war began. The driver of this decline is identified not as war fatigue but as inflation and economic strain from years of a war economy, with Russians increasingly comparing current conditions to the economic hardships of the 1990s.