✅ ¿Qué CONFLICTOS y GUERRAS están ACTIVOS en la actualidad?
Two hosts review active global conflicts and wars, covering tensions involving Iran, Yemen, Sudan, the Horn of Africa, Libya, the Sahel, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. They connect these conflicts through the common thread of strategic resource control, particularly gold and minerals, and the role of the UAE as a global gold hub. They also review their investment portfolio performance and discuss military exercises in the Philippines near Taiwan.
Summary
The episode opens with the hosts discussing the current state of the Iran-US ceasefire, noting that Trump extended the truce due to the lack of a unified negotiating position within Iran. The hosts highlight the internal division between Iran's political wing (the president and foreign minister) and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which remains intent on revenge for the killing of Ayatollah Khamenei and Qasem Soleimani. Planned talks in Pakistan have stalled, Netanyahu continues to oppose the truce, and Houthi leader Abdel Malik Al-Houthi has warned of escalation if attacks resume.
The hosts then pivot to a global conflict tour. In the Philippines, large-scale Balikatan military exercises involving the US, Australia, France, Canada, and New Zealand are underway near Itbayat island, just 155km from Taiwan — a move China has criticized as escalatory. The hosts note the strategic significance of Taiwan as a flashpoint.
In Yemen, the Houthis remain dominant in the north and have strengthened ties with Iran, while the Southern Transitional Council has weakened following a 2026 defeat. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iran each back different factions, creating a proxy conflict mirroring the broader Middle East.
In Sudan, the war between the regular army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continues, with Darfur remaining the most volatile zone. Egypt backs the army for Nile water security, while the UAE supports the RSF due to trade route interests. Ethiopia also plays a role, adding complexity to the regional dynamics. Gold is identified as a key driver of the conflict, with the RSF controlling mines and export routes.
In the Horn of Africa, Somalia's government struggles against Al-Shabaab, while Ethiopia deals with post-Tigray instability, dam disputes with Egypt over the Nile, and a controversial access-to-sea deal with Somaliland near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The hosts also raise the possibility of Ethiopia seeking Red Sea access through Eritrea.
In Libya, the country remains divided between the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (backed by Turkey) and eastern factions loyal to Marshal Khalifa Haftar (backed by Egypt, Russia, and the UAE). Oil facility blockades serve as political leverage, and a recent Repsol oil discovery adds new economic stakes.
In the Sahel, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger — all under military juntas — have expelled Western forces and welcomed Wagner Group, yet security continues to deteriorate as jihadist groups expand in rural areas. The hosts note migration and terrorism spillover as key concerns for Europe.
The hosts then connect all these conflicts through the lens of strategic resource control, particularly gold. They trace a supply chain from African mines through chaotic transit zones to the UAE, which has become a major global gold refining and re-export hub. The Democratic Republic of Congo is highlighted as another critical flashpoint, where the M23 (backed by Rwanda), the FDLR, ADF, and local militias fight over cobalt, coltan, and gold — minerals essential to modern technology, batteries, and defense systems.
Throughout the episode, the hosts also review their Besto investment portfolio, which has achieved a 54.42% cumulative return in 10 months, far outpacing the S&P 500's 15.95% gain. Key portfolio movements include Lockheed Martin falling 6% due to a stalled F-16 sale to Peru and NASA budget cuts, Amazon rising 3%+ on a $25 billion additional investment in Anthropic, and Rocket Lab surging 26.68% on a $190 million DoD hypersonic test contract and positive sector momentum.
Key Insights
- The hosts argue that the Iran ceasefire is structurally fragile because the IRGC operates independently from Iran's political leadership, making it nearly impossible to reach a unified negotiating position — particularly given unresolved grievances over the assassination of Qasem Soleimani.
- The hosts contend that the UAE has become the central node in an African gold supply chain, with raw gold flowing from conflict zones in Sudan, Mali, and the DRC through chaotic transit routes to Dubai, where it is refined and re-exported to international markets.
- The hosts describe the Balikatan military exercises in the Philippines — involving the US, France, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand near an island just 155km from Taiwan — as a significant strategic signal of coordinated Western deterrence against China in the Asia-Pacific.
- The hosts warn that cobalt and coltan from the DRC represent a dangerously underappreciated supply chain vulnerability, as these minerals are essential for mobile phones, batteries, and defense systems, yet flow from one of the world's most unstable regions controlled by competing warlords.
- Rocket Lab surged 26.68% in a single week, which the hosts attribute to a $190 million DoD hypersonic test contract, an order book exceeding $2 billion, and the fact that it is currently the only large space company publicly traded — making it the primary beneficiary of a sector boom partly fueled by anticipation of a future SpaceX IPO.
Topics
Transcript
[0:00] So, how's it going? Welcome to a new fishbowl of memories. For me it's the last one of the week, but for David it's the second to last. The penultimate one. I'll be back tomorrow with more. Very good. What do you think of everything in general? How are things in the world? Bad, bad, bad, bad, bad. We are living in a very conflictive period. It looks like the Iran-Iraq War is back. For now, Iran has said that it will not go to Pakistan. Well, but the truce is being extended, right? I read the last one. We'll see, we'll see. Suddenly we haven't understood anything and we're telling this as if from memory, right? [0:33] I…
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