MOSCÚ pierde terreno en MALI y el gobierno puede CAER

The episode opens with announcements about upcoming newsletter content and a special geopolitical report on Mali before diving into the week's major news stories.

On Iran, Trump has made clear the naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will continue until Tehran makes concessions on its nuclear program, reversing an earlier idea of a phased peace plan. Oil has surpassed $15 per barrel as a result, European stock markets fell sharply, and Spain's IBEX 35 opened down nearly 3%. The US aircraft carrier Gerald Ford is leaving the region after 300+ days, but this is described as a rotation rather than de-escalation. The Pentagon estimates the conflict, dubbed 'Operation Epic Fury,' has already cost approximately $25 billion, with the first 100 hours alone costing around $3.7 billion. Defense Secretary Hegseth has defended continuing the offensive citing Iran's ongoing nuclear threat.

Trump and Putin held a phone call covering Ukraine and Iran. Putin proposed a temporary truce in Ukraine coinciding with Russia's May 9th Victory Day celebration, which Trump reportedly welcomed. However, peace negotiations remain stalled, with Ukraine demanding any ceasefire last at least 30 days and Russia refusing while insisting on Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas. Meanwhile, Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure have reduced petroleum product transit at key ports like Novorossiysk by around 43%. On Iran, Russia proposed storing or downgrading Iran's enriched uranium on Russian territory to allow Iran a civilian nuclear program without weapons-grade material accumulation.

Israel intercepted a civilian flotilla carrying humanitarian aid to Gaza in international waters near Greece, detaining around 175 activists. Turkey called the action piracy, Italian spokespeople described it as surreal and shameful, and the move has broadly damaged Israel's relationship with Europe. The host questions whether Israel's confrontational posture toward Europe is strategically sound given its reliance on US diplomatic backing.

In Mali, coordinated attacks struck multiple cities including the capital Bamako, Kati, and Gao, while insurgents captured the strategic northern city of Kidal, previously held by Russian Africa Corps forces alongside the Malian army. Despite the junta leader appearing on television claiming control, insurgents continue to advance and Russian troops have retreated. The offensive was notable for uniting two normally separate groups: a jihadist faction linked to al-Qaeda and the Tuareg separatist movement (AZAWAD liberation front). Experts suggest Russia's Africa Corps, a rebranded Wagner Group under formal Russian military command, has lost the flexibility and aggressiveness of the original Wagner structure. Russia's influence in Mali had grown after France and the UN withdrew, but the death of Mali's Defense Minister Sadio Camara—considered the main link to Moscow—has further weakened Russia's position. The host believes Mali is unlikely to break with Russia due to the absence of alternatives, but warns it could descend into prolonged conflict like Libya or Sudan.

Finally, the host provides background on the United Arab Emirates: a federation of seven emirates each ruled by its own royal family, where Abu Dhabi holds the presidency due to controlling nearly 90% of oil reserves. The UAE's history includes dependence on pearl trading and fishing, British protectorate status in the 19th century, and eventual independence in 1971. Iran still occupies several disputed UAE islands in the Persian Gulf. Dubai has become a global financial and logistics hub while Abu Dhabi controls energy and sovereign wealth. The UAE's recent OPEC withdrawal is framed as part of a broader strategy to gain autonomy from Saudi Arabia and diversify income before oil loses its global dominance.