MacroVoices #505 Michael Every: Does Anyone Remember PMIs?
Michael Every argues that economic statecraft has replaced traditional market forces as the primary driver of global economics, with the US-China rivalry reshaping everything from trade to finance. He predicts a 'ceasefire to rearm' period where both superpowers prepare for continued competition rather than cooperation.
Summary
Michael Every from Rabobank discusses the fundamental shift from market-driven economics to economic statecraft, arguing that geopolitical tensions between the US and China now dominate all major economic decisions. He details recent developments including China's rare earth export controls, mysterious explosions at EU oil refineries, and Trump's aggressive diplomatic tour through Asia seeking allies against China. Every contends that the recent Trump-Xi meeting produced a temporary ceasefire rather than genuine cooperation, giving both sides time to strengthen their positions. He explains that the US is desperately trying to secure alternative supply chains for critical materials while China seeks to reduce dependence on Western technology. Every predicts major changes ahead including capital controls, a transformed Federal Reserve mandate, mandatory investment directions for allies, and the strategic use of dollar stablecoins to maintain US financial dominance. He argues that markets will transition from a 'jungle' where capital flows freely to a 'safari park' where investment is directed toward strategic national interests. Despite the constraints, he sees continued opportunities in AI and defense-related sectors, while warning that traditional market analysis focused on indicators like PMIs has become largely irrelevant in this new paradigm of economic warfare.
About this episode
MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Michael Every. They’ll discuss the geopolitical situation and talk about what it means for markets. https://bit.ly/49AFRuQ 🔻Download Big Picture Trading Chartbook 📈📉: https://bit.ly/4973pY2 ✅Sign up for a FREE 14-day trial at Big Picture Trading: https://bit.ly/4d1fcag 🔴 Subscribe to Patrick’s Youtube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@Patrick_Ceresna 🔴 Subscribe to Erik's Substack: https://eriktownsend.substack.com/
Key Insights
- Every argues that economic statecraft has replaced market forces as the primary driver of global economics, making traditional indicators like PMIs largely irrelevant
- He contends that China's control over rare earths gives it the ability to effectively block any country from building military equipment by restricting exports
- Every predicts that the recent Trump-Xi meeting produced only a 'ceasefire to rearm' rather than genuine cooperation, with both sides using the time to strengthen their positions
- He argues that the US will implement capital controls directing where allied nations can and cannot invest, moving away from free capital flows
- Every claims that markets will transition from a 'jungle' of free movement to a 'safari park' where investors can roam within designated strategic areas
- He predicts that dollar stablecoins will become a geopolitical tool to rebuild US financial architecture and enable re-industrialization
- Every argues that the Federal Reserve will be transformed under new management to play a very different role aligned with national strategic interests
- He contends that the US strategy includes using military statecraft to disrupt commodity flows to China from vulnerable supplier nations
- Every argues that both the US and China are in a 'Mexican standoff' where each side has different types of weapons - physical production versus financial control
- He predicts that tariffs, subsidies, and price controls will become permanent features as market forces give way to strategic economic planning
- Every argues that the AI boom is fundamentally about military competition between superpowers rather than commercial opportunity
- He contends that this economic restructuring will create massive arbitrage opportunities between Western and Eastern markets for different commodities
Topics
Transcript
This is Macro Voices, the free weekly financial podcast targeting professional finance, high net worth individuals, family offices, and other sophisticated investors. Macro Voices is all about the brightest minds in the world of finance and macroeconomics telling it like it is, bullish or bearish, no holds barred. Now, here are your hosts, Eric Townsend and Patrick Ceresna. Macro Voices episode 505 was produced on November 6th, 2025. I'm Eric Townsend. RoboBank's Michael Every returns as this week's feature interview guest. We'll break down the geopolitical situation and talk about what it means for markets. And Michael will have more to add to Brent Johnson's comments last week about the role of U.S. dollar stablecoins in the global finance. system…
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