MacroVoices #497 Dr. Anas Alhajji: The Impact of Trump Polices on Russia, China, India & OPEX+

Dr. Anas Alhajji provides an in-depth analysis of OPEC Plus production strategies and global energy market dynamics. He explains the complex structure of OPEC cuts, including the Group of Eight's voluntary cuts totaling 1.65 million barrels per day that are being unwound starting October 2025. Alhajji argues that only four countries (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait) can actually increase production, with actual market impact being roughly half the headline numbers due to export realities versus production quotas.

Alhajji strongly critiques what he calls 'manufactured bearishness' in oil markets, particularly targeting the International Energy Agency's forecasts. He presents evidence that the IEA has systematically underestimated oil demand for 18 years, from 2007 to 2024, requiring massive upward revisions totaling 350 million barrels. He argues that current IEA projections of 1.8 million barrels per day surplus are similarly flawed, with his firm projecting 1.1 million barrels per day demand growth versus IEA's 680,000.

Regarding Trump administration policies, Alhajji argues that the 50% tariffs on India (25% general plus 25% for Russian oil purchases) are not primarily about Russian oil, since the EU still imports significant Russian gas and the US itself imports from Russia. He suggests the India tariffs reflect broader trade policy rather than sanctions enforcement. He explains how US policies including trade wars, immigration restrictions, and visa policies have reduced jet fuel demand, contributing more to oil price declines than OPEC production increases.

Alhajji discusses the resurrection of the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline between Russia and China, explaining it was previously dead but revived due to US trade policies and Middle East tensions. China stopped importing US LNG in February 2025 due to trade wars, while US attacks on Iran and promotion of Hormuz Strait closure scenarios pushed China toward pipeline alternatives from Russia. He argues US policies inadvertently drove this Sino-Russian energy cooperation.

On electric vehicles, Alhajji describes multiple subsidy fraud schemes in China inflating EV numbers, including odometer manipulation, phantom sales for export vehicles, and manufacturer self-purchases. He calculates that even taking maximum global EV numbers at face value, the total impact on oil demand replacement is only 1.3 million barrels per day from 50 million vehicles worldwide.