MacroVoices #439 Rory Johnston: Discretionary Risks To The Oil Market
Energy expert Rory Johnston discusses OPEC's unprecedented market support through withholding 4 million barrels per day—crisis-level cuts that could send oil below $50 if released. He analyzes how Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 spending requirements drive their need for $80-90 oil, while US shale continues exceeding expectations despite repeated peak predictions.
Summary
In this comprehensive oil market analysis, Rory Johnston addresses President Trump's claim that OPEC is suppressing oil prices to help elect Kamala Harris, arguing the opposite is true. OPEC is actually providing unprecedented market support by withholding approximately 4 million barrels per day since October 2022—the largest crisis-level production cuts since the 2008-2009 financial crisis. Without this support, oil prices could easily fall below $50 per barrel. Johnston explains that Saudi Arabia's aggressive price defense stems from their massive spending commitments under Vision 2030, requiring oil prices around $80-90 per barrel to fund their diversification plans through the Public Investment Fund. This represents a significant shift from pre-COVID Saudi policy, when they would only defend prices below $60 per barrel. The discussion covers the challenging dynamics OPEC faces, including maintaining internal discipline while competing against growing US shale production and other non-OPEC sources. Johnston addresses the persistent but repeatedly incorrect predictions of US shale peak production, noting that shale has exceeded expectations every year for over a decade due to continued efficiency improvements and technological advances. The conversation explores various geopolitical risks, including potential Russian production losses that could remove 8 million barrels per day from markets, and the complex oil demand picture in China, where diesel demand is declining due to LNG displacement in trucking while gasoline demand remains strong. Johnston analyzes the crude oil term structure, noting that while the market remains backwardated (indicating tightness), this backwardation has weakened significantly from levels seen just weeks earlier, potentially signaling a shift toward contango if bearish demand scenarios materialize. The interview concludes with an update on the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, where the Biden administration has refilled 43 million barrels but faces funding constraints with only $1.2 billion remaining in their petroleum account—enough for approximately 15 million additional barrels before requiring Congressional reauthorization.
About this episode
MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome back, Rory Johnston. They discuss all things crude oil, ranging from President Trump’s claim that OPEC is working hard to get Kamala Harris elected to the ultimate growth limits of U.S. Shale. https://bit.ly/4ceTfSV ⚫ Follow Rory Johnston on X: https://www.x.com/Rory_Johnston ⚫ Find Out More: https://www.commoditycontext.com/🔻Download Big Picture Trading Chartbook: 📈📉: https://bit.ly/3Ag1QaI ✅Sign up for a FREE 14-day trial at Big Picture Trading: https://bit.ly/3WbYmgH 🔴 Subscribe to Patrick’s Youtube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@Patrick_Ceresna 🔴 Subscribe to Erik's Substack: https://eriktownsend.substack.com/ 🔴 Check out Energy Transition Crisis on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@EnergyTransitionCrisis1 🔴 Check out Nick's YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/Optionfinity ✅ Join OptionFinity discord: https://discord.gg/Rvnsv6Y 🔴 Subscribe to Nick’s Medium: https://medium.com/@ngalarnyk Please visit our website https://www.macrovoices.com to register your free account to gain access to supporting materials
Key Insights
- OPEC is currently withholding 4 million barrels per day from the market, representing the largest crisis-level production cuts since 2008-2009
- Saudi Arabia's revealed price target has jumped from defending $50-60 oil pre-COVID to defending around $90 oil currently due to Vision 2030 spending commitments
- If OPEC released all withheld production, oil prices would likely fall below $50 per barrel, contradicting claims they are trying to suppress prices
- US shale production has exceeded expectations every year for the past decade, with efficiency improvements allowing fewer rigs to produce more oil
- Chinese oil demand growth has shifted from nearly 2 million barrels per day growth last year to potential contraction in 2024, primarily due to diesel weakness
- The crude oil term structure shows weakening backwardation despite still indicating tightness, with the second-to-third month spread falling from nearly $1 to 50 cents in two weeks
- Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman represents the first royal to hold Saudi energy minister position, signaling direct royal family control over oil policy to fund diversification plans
- Chinese diesel demand is declining due to LNG displacement in long-haul trucking, representing 300-600,000 barrels per day of demand destruction
- A complete loss of Russian oil production (8 million barrels) would create a much larger supply shock than OPEC's current cuts, potentially pushing prices to extreme levels
- The Biden administration has only $1.2 billion remaining to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, enough for about 15 million barrels before requiring Congressional funding
- Saudi Arabia's fiscal breakeven price when including Vision 2030 spending is estimated above $100 per barrel, explaining their aggressive price defense
- The longer OPEC maintains current production cuts, the higher the probability of agreement breakdown due to eroding internal discipline and member pressure for increased production
Topics
Transcript
This is Macro Voices, the free weekly financial podcast targeting professional finance, high net worth individuals, family offices, and other sophisticated investors. Macro Voices is all about the brightest minds in the world of finance and macroeconomics telling it like it is, bullish or bearish, no holds barred. Now, here are your hosts, Eric Townsend and Patrick Ceresna. Macro Voices episode 439 was produced on July 31st, 2024. I'm Eric Townsend. Commodity context founder and energy markets expert Rory Johnston returns as this week's feature interview guest. Rory weighs in on all things crude oil, ranging from President Trump's claim that OPEC is working hard to get Kamala Harris elected to the ultimate growth. We recorded this one just before…
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