ResearchDiscussion

How tech workers actually feel about AI in 2026 | Annual AI sentiment survey (Noam Segal)

Lenny's Podcast: Product | Career | GrowthJuly 12, 20261h 36m

Noam Segal presents findings from an annual tech worker sentiment survey showing a stark bifurcation in how tech employees feel about AI: half are energized and excited, while the other half feel destabilized, diminished, or resentful. Across the industry, burnout has increased significantly to 54.7%, optimism has declined to 48.7%, and almost no one would recommend their tech role to newcomers, despite still enjoying their current work.

Summary

Noam Segal, a research leader who has worked at companies including Intercom, Twitter, Meta, and Figma, discusses the second annual tech worker sentiment survey conducted with Lenny in collaboration. The survey polled approximately 6,000 tech workers across product, engineering, design, research, and marketing roles.

The most striking finding is a 50-50 bifurcation in how AI has impacted tech workers' sense of professional identity. Approximately 50% of respondents report feeling "amplified"—energized and capable of doing more with new AI capabilities. The other half split into three groups: 27% feel their roles are being redefined with unclear implications; 14% feel "destabilized" with high anxiety and pessimism; and 5% feel "diminished," believing AI has permanently taken something from them.

Burnout metrics have worsened significantly year-over-year, rising from 44.7% to 54.7% of the sample reporting significant burnout. Simultaneously, optimism about career futures has declined from 54.8% to 48.7%. However, enjoyment of work remains high at comparable levels to the previous year, creating what Segal calls "smiling exhaustion"—people are excited about possibilities but exhausted by unsustainable pace and increasing expectations.

The survey identified four distinct tech worker archetypes: the "energized tech worker" (41%), who finds products fun again and feels empowered; the "conflicted ambivalent middle" (35%), who experience simultaneous excitement and uncertainty; the "disoriented" (12%), who feel like farmers on the cusp of the industrial revolution with no clear path; and the "resentful" (12%), who feel pressured and forced to use AI.

When asked about top concerns, "losing my job to AI" ranked second to last—the dominant fear is instead the expectation to do more for the same pay, coupled with unsustainable pace of both work and technological change. Seventy-two percent of respondents worry about being laid off.

Regarding productivity gains, 97.2% report AI makes them better at their job, but deeper analysis reveals a troubling pattern: people report doing more faster but not better quality work. More concerning, many report experiencing "cognitive rot"—their brains feel like they're rotting as they accept AI outputs without applying their own judgment and thinking.

The survey reveals stark role-based disparities. Designers and researchers report the most negative emotions (tired, overwhelmed, anxious), highest job loss concerns, and lowest willingness to recommend their roles. Data analysts express the most worry about job replacement. Conversely, founders are consistently the happiest group across all metrics, with 71% reporting optimism, though even they wouldn't recommend the founder path to others. Company size correlates linearly with burnout and worry—larger companies have significantly more burnt-out employees.

A critical finding is that manager effectiveness has a massive effect on employee wellbeing, approximately three times larger than other job characteristics. However, only 25% of respondents rate their manager as highly effective, while 36% rate them as ineffective. The worst-rated managers cluster in design, research, and data analytics—roles already struggling with AI concerns.

When asked about recommending their roles to newcomers, the survey found universal negativity across all roles and seniority levels, with designers and researchers most negative. This represents a concerning shift where even executives working at well-funded AI companies wouldn't encourage others to enter tech careers.

The word cloud analysis of how respondents describe tech's current state shows equal positive (37%) and negative (37%) language, with 26% neutral. Words like "chaos," "speed," "flux," "unstable," and "confusing" compete with "exciting," "opportunity," and "better," illustrating the bifurcated experience.

Recommendations for employees include going deep on specific use cases for AI rather than trying to be a generalist, watching for the "squeeze" of increased expectations without compensation, investing in manager relationships, considering smaller companies or starting ventures, and seeking mentorship. For leaders, the key recommendations are investing significantly in manager development and training, managing sustainable productivity expectations, supporting early-career employees to build skills, and paying particular attention to roles like design and research that are experiencing disproportionate anxiety.

About this episode

Noam Segal is a longtime research leader across Airbnb, Meta, Twitter, Zapier, Intercom, and Figma, a certified coach, AI builder, and my community research lead. Together, we run the annual Tech Worker Sentiment Survey, now in its second year and one of the largest of its kind: a quantitative study of how people in tech actually feel about their jobs, AI, burnout, and the future of their careers. This year’s survey captured responses from thousands of workers across product, engineering, design, research, marketing, data, and sales, and the results are striking.In our in-depth conversation, we discuss:1. Why AI has split the tech workforce almost exactly in half—one half that’s thriving, another that’s shaken2. The four emotional archetypes defining tech workers right now (the Energized, the Conflicted, the Disoriented, and the Resentful)3. Why burnout has jumped an alarming 11 points in a single year4. Why nobody in tech would recommend their job to someone entering the industry today5. The #1 fear in tech right now (it’s not job loss to AI)6. Why managers are the single biggest lever for employee well-being7. Concrete advice for what employees and leaders can do right now—Brought to you by:<a href="https://workos.com/lenny" target="_blank">WorkOS</a>—Make your app enterprise-ready, with SSO, SCIM, RBAC, and more: <a href="https://workos.com/lenny" target="_blank">https://workos.com/lenny</a><a href="https://mercury.com/command?utm_source=lennys&utm_medium=sponsored_newsletter&utm_campaign=26q3_brand_campaign" target="_blank">Mercury</a>—Radically different banking, now with Command: <a href="https://mercury.com/command?utm_source=lennys&utm_medium=sponsored_newsletter&utm_campaign=26q3_brand_campaign" target="_blank">https://mercury.com/command?utm_source=lennys&utm_medium=sponsored_newsletter&utm_campaign=26q3_brand_campaign</a>—Episode transcript: <a href="https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/how-tech-workers-actually-feel-about" target="_blank">https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/how-tech-workers-actually-feel-about</a>—Archive of all Lenny's Podcast transcripts: <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/yxi4s2w998p1gvtpu4193/AMdNPR8AOw0lMklwtnC0TrQ?rlkey=j06x0nipoti519e0xgm23zsn9&st=ahz0fj11&dl=0" target="_blank">https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/yxi4s2w998p1gvtpu4193/AMdNPR8AOw0lMklwtnC0TrQ?rlkey=j06x0nipoti519e0xgm23zsn9&st=ahz0fj11&dl=0</a>—Where to find Noam Segal:• X: <a href="https://x.com/noamseg" target="_blank">https://x.com/noamseg</a>• LinkedIn: <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/noamsegal" target="_blank">https://www.linkedin.com/in/noamsegal</a>—Where to find Lenny:• Newsletter: <a href="https://www.lennysnewsletter.com" target="_blank">https://www.lennysnewsletter.com</a>• X: <a href="https://twitter.com/lennysan" target="_blank">https://twitter.com/lennysan</a>• LinkedIn: <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/lennyrachitsky/" target="_blank">https://www.linkedin.com/in/lennyrachitsky/</a>—In this episode, we cover:(00:00) Introduction to Noam Segal(02:34) About the survey: methodology and scope(06:04) The core finding: AI has split the tech workforce in half(13:03) The AI identity stance(14:40) The four archetypes: Energized, Conflicted, Disoriented, Resentful(19:35) Burnout is surging (and why shipping faster is making it worse)(22:53) A glimmer of hope(24:55) Layoff worries(29:15) The career recommendation NPS score(36:45) The ladder metaphor: rungs disappearing beneath our feet(45:14) AI is making us faster, not better(52:53) The #1 fear: being squeezed to do more for the same pay(55:55) The emotional landscape and “smiling exhaustion”(01:01:02) Designers and researchers: the most negative group two years running(01:06:27) Who’s happiest(01:12:18) Managers: the single biggest lever on well-being(01:18:47) The industry is “chaotic”(01:24:53) What employees and leaders can do right now(01:31:32) AI guilt and closing thoughts—Referenced:• How tech workers are feeling in 2026: a workforce splitting in two: <a href="https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/how-tech-workers-are-feeling-in-2026" target="_blank">https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/how-tech-workers-are-feeling-in-2026</a>• How tech’s most resilient workers handle burnout: <a href="https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/how-techs-most-resilient-workers" target="_blank">https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/how-techs-most-resilient-workers</a>• Please stop the AI Confidence Theater: <a href="https://www.elenaverna.com/p/please-stop-the-ai-confidence-theater" target="_blank">https://www.elenaverna.com/p/please-stop-the-ai-confidence-theater</a>• Velocity over everything: How Ramp became the fastest-growing SaaS startup of all time | Geoff Charles (VP of Product): <a href="https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/velocity-over-everything-how-ramp" target="_blank">https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/velocity-over-everything-how-ramp</a>• NPS Is The Worst: <a href="https://www.npsistheworst.com" target="_blank">https://www.npsistheworst.com</a>• The Terminator: <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0088247" target="_blank">https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0088247</a>• Skynet: <a href="https://terminator.fandom.com/wiki/Skynet" target="_blank">https://terminator.fandom.com/wiki/Skynet</a>• Inside Devin: The world’s first autonomous AI engineer that’s set to write 50% of its company’s code by end of year | Scott Wu (CEO and co-founder of Cognition): <a href="https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/inside-devin-scott-wu" target="_blank">https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/inside-devin-scott-wu</a>• Devin: <a href="https://devin.ai" target="_blank">https://devin.ai</a>• An AI state of the union: We’ve passed the inflection point, dark factories are coming, and automation timelines | Simon Willison: <a href="https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/an-ai-state-of-the-union" target="_blank">https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/an-ai-state-of-the-union</a>• Redeploying Fable 5: <a href="https://www.anthropic.com/news/redeploying-fable-5" target="_blank">https://www.anthropic.com/news/redeploying-fable-5</a>• Why half of product managers are in trouble | Nikhyl Singhal (Meta, Google): <a href="https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/why-half-of-product-managers-are-in-trouble" target="_blank">https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/why-half-of-product-managers-are-in-trouble</a>• Inside Linear: Building with taste, craft, and focus | Karri Saarinen (co-founder, designer, CEO): <a href="https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/inside-linear-building-with-taste" target="_blank">https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/inside-linear-building-with-taste</a>• Building beautiful products with Stripe’s Head of Design | Katie Dill (Stripe, Airbnb, Lyft): <a href="https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/building-beautiful-products-with" target="_blank">https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/building-beautiful-products-with</a>• The design process is dead. Here’s what’s replacing it. | Jenny Wen (head of design at Claude): <a href="https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/the-design-process-is-dead" target="_blank">https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/the-design-process-is-dead</a>• OpenAI Codex lead on the new shape of product work | Andrew Ambrosino: <a href="https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/openai-codex-lead-on-the-new-shape" target="_blank">https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/openai-codex-lead-on-the-new-shape</a>• Elon Musk: ‘Chances are we’re all living in a simulation’: <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/jun/02/elon-musk-tesla-space-x-paypal-hyperloop-simulation" target="_blank">https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/jun/02/elon-musk-tesla-space-x-paypal-hyperloop-simulation</a>—Production and marketing by <a href="https://penname.co/" target="_blank">https://penname.co/</a>. For inquiries about sponsoring the podcast, email <a href="mailto:[email protected]" target="_blank">[email protected]</a>.—Lenny may be an investor in the companies discussed. To hear more, visit <a href="https://www.lennysnewsletter.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=show-notes-no-free-preview-language">www.lennysnewsletter.com</a>

Key Insights

AI's impact on worker identity is approximately three times larger in effect size than other job characteristics like role type, company, or seniority level, making it the dominant factor in how tech workers feel about their careers.
The survey found that 97.2% of tech workers report AI makes them better at their jobs, but deeper investigation reveals this improvement is primarily in output quantity rather than quality, with many reporting their brains are 'rotting' from lack of engaged thinking.
Burnout increased by 10 percentage points year-over-year despite the widespread narrative that AI makes work easier, suggesting that productivity gains are being immediately converted into increased expectations rather than reduced workload.
Only 25% of tech workers rate their manager as highly effective, while 36% rate them as ineffective—a critical failure given that manager quality shows the largest measurable impact on employee burnout and job enjoyment across all measured variables.
The fear of job replacement by AI ranks second-to-last among tech worker concerns, whereas the top concern is the expectation to do more work for the same pay, indicating that overwork stress exceeds existential job security fears.
Designers and researchers report the highest rates of feeling destabilized or diminished by AI, the lowest willingness to recommend their roles to newcomers, and the most anxious emotional states, creating a potential talent crisis in these critical functions.
Even founders, who report the highest overall satisfaction and optimism about AI (71% optimistic), do not recommend the founder path to others, suggesting that current role attractiveness does not predict future recommendability.
Burnout correlates almost perfectly with company size in a linear fashion with no inflection point—moving from a 1-10 person startup to a 5,000+ person enterprise corresponds to a continuous increase in burnout with no compensation at any scale.
Tech workers experience simultaneous contradictory emotions they describe as 'smiling exhaustion'—feeling energized and excited about building capabilities while being exhausted and worried about sustainability—with curiosity and excitement ranking as top emotions alongside overwhelm and anxiety.
People in early-career technical roles (ICs) feel less capable of impacting outcomes than managers, with the theory that while managers benefit from AI processing information streams, individual contributors scramble to build with duplicative effort across the organization.
The survey found that 72% of tech workers worry about layoffs and that fears about job security correlate strongly with burnout, optimism decline, and unwillingness to recommend roles, creating a feedback loop of anxiety.
The sentiment analysis found 37% positive and 37% negative language when tech workers describe their industry's current state, with 26% neutral, creating a perfectly bifurcated perception where half find the change thrilling and half find it terrifying.

Topics

AI's bifurcated impact on tech worker psychologyBurnout surge and declining optimism in techRole-specific disparities (designers, researchers, data analysts)Manager effectiveness as primary wellbeing driverCognitive rot and quality vs. productivity tradeoffFounder satisfaction vs. career recommendation paradoxCompany size correlation with employee burnoutUnsustainable pace and expectation squeezeEarly-career skill development in AI eraTech career attractiveness to newcomers

Transcript

Bad news for the tech community. Burnout at work is a major problem. And AI could add to this already overwhelmed employee problem. The honeymoon period with AI is over. When people are asked, what are you afraid of? Losing my job to AI is actually second to last. What we saw rise up to the top is the expectation to do more for the same pay. We did this survey on how people are feeling in tech right now. Burnout is increasing significantly. Optimism is declining. It's never been crazier. When are we going to get to the optimistic part of this episode? Half of the people in tech are feeling incredible. And the other half, essentially told us,…

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How tech workers actually feel about AI in 2026 | Annual AI sentiment survey (Noam Segal)

Summary

About this episode

Key Insights

Topics

Transcript

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