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Altın ve Gümüşte Dip Yakalandı mı?

Kanal Finans

Tunç Şatıroğlu analyzes multiple markets including Borsa İstanbul, US markets, crypto, and precious metals. He argues that Borsa İstanbul lacks a compelling macroeconomic story due to Turkey's unresolved inflation and employment problems, while predicting that gold and silver have reached their bottoms and are positioned for recovery.

Summary

The video opens with a sponsorship segment for Midas, a Turkish investment platform, where Şatıroğlu highlights a new daily tax tracking feature that allows investors to monitor gains and losses in real time — useful for tax-loss harvesting strategies when filing US stock income tax returns.

On Borsa İstanbul, Şatıroğlu is skeptical of any meaningful rally. He argues the index is range-bound between 14,000 and 14,600 and criticizes what he calls 'index engineering' — a few select stocks rising while gains don't spread broadly. He identifies an 'inflation lobby' of business owners and operators who want lower interest rates and looser credit conditions for self-interested reasons. He contrasts the current environment unfavorably with the early 2000s era of Kemal Derviş and Ali Babacan, when Turkey had a credible reform story (EU accession hopes, IMF discipline). Today, he argues, Turkey has no such narrative — failing to hit inflation targets while also unable to resolve unemployment or support struggling businesses.

On US markets, Şatıroğlu notes that Dow Jones and Nasdaq are showing signs of strain near key resistance levels and advises against opening new positions. He characterizes Fed Chair Powell as politically motivated, pointing to the 50 basis point rate cut before the 2024 presidential election as evidence — arguing Powell now wants rates to stay higher to disadvantage Democrats ahead of midterm elections.

For semiconductors (tracked via a semiconductor ETF), he says the ETF dipped below a key moving average level and has partially recovered, suggesting existing holders could add to positions around the 503 level, but advises against fresh entries.

On Brent crude, Şatıroğlu notes oil briefly exceeded $120 for roughly 8-10 minutes before pulling back, treating this as a failed breakout confirming $120 as a likely peak. He warns that energy ETFs like XLE could fall if oil retreats and advises caution on new energy positions.

On crypto, he notes Bitcoin's stall at 78,000 resistance (support at 75,000) and Ethereum's stall at 2,400 (support at 2,220), tying crypto weakness to Nasdaq's pause. He advises holders to hold but does not recommend new purchases.

For gold and silver, Şatıroğlu says his earlier prediction of a bottom has been confirmed. Gold needs to hold above 4,640 (currently around 4,620) to be considered a buy, and silver needs to hold above 73.60. He advises those who bought the previous day to continue holding, cautioning that sideways movement could persist for several months before the uptrend resumes — but considers the entry price favorable for long-term positioning.

Key Insights

  • Şatıroğlu argues that Borsa İstanbul has no compelling macroeconomic story — unlike the early 2000s under Kemal Derviş when Turkey had EU accession hopes and IMF discipline, today Turkey fails to hit inflation targets while simultaneously failing to resolve unemployment, leaving no narrative to drive sustained index gains.
  • Şatıroğlu characterizes Fed Chair Powell as politically motivated, arguing that the 50 basis point cut before the 2024 presidential election was designed to benefit Democrats, and that Powell is now resisting rate cuts ahead of midterm elections to disadvantage them — calling him 'a political figure' based on the data.
  • Şatıroğlu says his earlier prediction that gold would reach a bottom has been confirmed by price action in the wave trend, with an expected buying signal materializing, and that gold is now worth buying above the 4,640 level where it clears the moving average resistance.
  • Şatıroğlu treats Brent crude's failure to stay above $120 — spending only about 8–10 minutes above that level before retreating — as confirmation that $120 is the peak, and warns that energy ETFs like XLE are vulnerable to a drop if oil declines from current levels.
  • Şatıroğlu warns that even if gold and silver buyers entered at a good price, they should expect potential sideways movement lasting several months before the uptrend resumes, and frames low-cost accumulation at current levels as the primary advantage of the entry.

Topics

Borsa İstanbul technical outlook and macro concernsUS Federal Reserve rate policy and Powell's political motivationsGold and silver bottom formation and recovery outlookNasdaq and semiconductor ETF analysisTurkey's inflation and unemployment policy failures

Transcript

[0:01] Merhaba ben Tunç Şatıroğlu. Piyasalar yorumuma hoş geldiniz. Bugün piyasalar yorumuma Midas sponsor oluyor ve Midas'ın da eee vergi merkezinden tekrar bahsetmek istiyorum. Şimdi Amerikan borsasında bir şeyler alıp sattığınız zaman, eee, onlardan bir şey kazandığınız zaman gelir vergisi beyannamesi vermeniz gerekiyor. Ve birçok eee yatırımcı da bu konudan biraz uzak durmak istiyor ve eee, yani konuyu öğrenmek istemiyor belki ama Midas bu [0:33] konuda çok yardımcı oluyor ve eee, yıl sonu itibariyle de vergi raporunu hazırlıyor. Ancak artık eee sadece yıl sonu itibariyle değil yani Midas vergi merkezine gittiğiniz zaman eee günlük olarak bunu takip edebiliyorsunuz. Günlük takip artık eee Midas'ta vergi merkeziyle mümkün. Şimdi eee böyle bunun [1:04] bize ne faydası var derseniz eee şöyle bir faydası…

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