Markets Weekly June 13, 2026

In this June 13, 2026 Markets Weekly episode, the host discusses two major market developments. On inflation, recent CPI data showed headline inflation at 4.2% year-over-year, primarily driven by elevated energy prices stemming from the Iran conflict. However, core CPI on a month-over-month basis is only 0.2%, suggesting inflation has peaked. The speaker notes that crude oil prices have declined from over $100/barrel due to positive developments on the Iran peace front. Key factors keeping oil prices lower than expected include US military assistance allowing some tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, aggressive US Strategic Petroleum Reserve drawdowns approaching minimal operational levels, and China drawing down over a billion barrels from its strategic reserves. Inflation expectations from consumer surveys have also declined discretely, which the speaker emphasizes is crucial for Fed policy since the Fed targets expectations rather than spot inflation. The host suggests the president must resolve the Iran situation soon—by end of month—or face oil price spikes ahead of the July 4th celebrations, World Cup, and midterm elections.

On the SpaceX IPO, the largest in history, the company was valued at $2 trillion despite losing billions annually, reflecting how Elon Musk's companies are driven by momentum and enthusiasm rather than traditional profitability metrics. While only $75 billion in equity was sold, the speaker warns of a coming flood of equity supply as early investors, venture funds, and employees become able to monetize holdings following IPO lockup periods. This is compounded by announcements from other major tech companies seeking to raise capital for AI buildout—including planned IPOs from Anthropic and OpenAI, plus secondary offerings from companies like Super Micro Computer (which announced a $7 billion offering and saw its stock drop 30% in one week). Historically, even very successful companies underperform in their first year post-IPO. The speaker notes a significant shift in equity market dynamics: large tech companies that have been shrinking their share count through buybacks for over a decade are now issuing new shares to fund AI infrastructure, removing a major traditional support for stock prices. Fed Chair Kevin's upcoming first meeting is expected to shift communication toward a more neutral stance on rate policy.