Konjunktur: Das schrumpfende Wachstum / Elektromobilität: Deutsche Autos schwächeln in China

The episode opens with Germany's dire economic outlook: the federal government, under Economics Minister Katharina Reiche, has halved its own growth forecast within just a few months, landing at a meager 0.5% growth. Chief economist Benjamin Weigert's circular quip — 'if we had no impulses, we'd have no impulses' — underscores the hollow nature of this growth, which is almost entirely propped up by state spending. Private consumption and investment are barely positive, while foreign trade has slipped into negative territory.

On electric mobility, German automakers are facing a double squeeze. In China, the world's largest EV market, sales fell nearly 20% in Q1 to around 1.2 million vehicles after the expiration of purchase subsidies. Bank of America auto analyst Horst Schneider expects Chinese manufacturers to continue gaining market share. The one consolation for German brands is that Volkswagen still leads the shrinking combustion engine market in China. Meanwhile, in Europe, EV demand is booming — driven by higher fuel prices for fossil fuels, state subsidies, and increased investment — but it is foreign companies like BYD, Stellantis, Tesla, and Ford that are posting the highest growth rates, not German manufacturers.

On energy, Russia is set to halt the transit of Kazakh oil through the Druzhba pipeline to Germany from May 1. Since the pipeline runs through Russian territory, Moscow retains leverage over supply at any time. The PCK refinery in Schwedt, Brandenburg, would be most affected, potentially worsening its economic situation and pushing fuel costs higher.

Deutsche Telekom's secret plan to merge with its American subsidiary T-Mobile US was exposed by Bloomberg and followed up by Handelsblatt journalists. Insiders revealed that even the supervisory board had not been informed. CEO Timotheus Höttges reportedly aims to create a transatlantic telecoms giant capable of competing with China Mobile, Verizon, AT&T, and even hyperscalers like AWS and Google.

The episode also touches on stock market opportunities, highlighting a Handelsblatt data team analysis of oversold S&P 500 stocks with recovery potential. Finally, a lighter note: US Health Secretary Robert Kennedy's enthusiasm for sauerkraut — reportedly smuggled into restaurants by his wife — has given a notable sales boost to German sauerkraut producers, including Hengstenberg in Esslingen am Neckar.