Political Fix Election special: snap analysis
The FT's Political Fix podcast conducts snap election analysis following UK local elections showing massive gains for Reform UK, heavy losses for Labour (losing approximately 70% of seats defended), significant Conservative losses outside London, and modest Green gains. The panel discusses implications for Keir Starmer's leadership, Andy Burnham's potential return to Westminster, and whether Reform's rise signals a permanent end to two-party politics in Britain.
Summary
Recorded on the morning after UK local election results began coming in, the FT Political Fix panel — Lucy Fisher, Jim Pickard, Stephen Bush, and Jen Williams — provides rapid analysis of a politically turbulent night. Reform UK emerged as the dominant story, picking up over 400 seats and displacing Labour across former Red Wall strongholds in the North and Midlands. Jim Pickard noted Reform had gone from virtually nothing to leading national polls, though he cautioned that its polling share had already dropped from 31% to around 26% over the preceding six months.
Labour's performance was described by Stephen Bush as 'apocalyptically bad' — worse in percentage terms than Margaret Thatcher's 1981 midterm losses, which represent the worst performance by a government that subsequently won re-election. While Labour spinners were pointing to comparisons with Tony Blair's 1999 local elections (when Labour lost ~1,100 seats but went on to win in 2001), Bush argued the comparison was misleading because Labour was defending far fewer seats this time, making the percentage loss far more severe. The panel noted Labour was losing approximately 70% of seats it was defending, versus around 23% in 1999.
Jen Williams provided granular detail on northern results, highlighting symbolic losses in Wigan (home to Andy Burnham's former seat and Lisa Nandy's constituency), Tameside (home to Angela Rayner and Chief Whip Jonathan Reynolds), Salford, and Merseyside. She noted that many northern councils elect in thirds, meaning full council flips may take two to three election cycles, but the directional trend was unmistakable. She also flagged that turnout appeared to be up — partly attributed to Reform's ability to mobilise non-habitual voters, potentially including people who hadn't voted since the 2016 Brexit referendum.
The Conservatives had a mixed night — heavy losses overall but some bright spots in London, recapturing Westminster Council and becoming the largest group again on Wandsworth. Stephen Bush argued these wins were concentrated in high-affluence, ethnically diverse London boroughs, a very narrow electoral niche with limited national applicability. He argued the traditional Conservative heartlands were in deep trouble, and that without Lib Dem collapse there was no path to a Conservative majority. On Kemi Badenoch's leadership, the panel noted she was outperforming her own party in personal polling and benefited from the fact that Labour's losses were so much larger, diverting all pressure toward Starmer.
The Liberal Democrats had a broadly stable night, holding strongly in seats where they already had MPs (e.g., Richmond achieving 54 out of 54 councillors) and performing better than expected in potentially vulnerable outer-London boroughs like Sutton. Stephen Bush argued that maintaining local government growth for eight consecutive years against a broader anti-centrist tide was genuinely impressive, though internal party grumblings about Ed Davey's leadership style and strategic direction were noted as likely to continue.
On Scotland and Wales, the panel discussed the SNP likely being re-elected despite 19 years in power and multiple leadership scandals — described as a significant defeat for unionism. In Wales, Plaid Cymru was set to more than double its Senedd presence while the Conservatives faced near-wipeout, potentially forcing a Labour-Plaid coalition.
The most politically charged discussion centred on Starmer's future and Andy Burnham's potential return to Westminster. Lord David Watts publicly called for Burnham to return and challenge Starmer. The panel noted that John McDonnell had argued Starmer should be allowed to stay temporarily to avoid chaos — interpreted as buying time for Burnham to secure a path back. Jim Pickard and Jen Williams both raised serious doubts about whether Burnham could actually win a by-election seat: St. Helens, often cited as a possibility, had just seen all its Labour councillors lose to Reform. The panel also noted Starmer's deep personal animosity toward Burnham as a complicating factor, and that Burnham lacked a political machine to engineer his return. The broader Labour dilemma was framed as a policy puzzle — with votes scattering to Reform, Greens, and elsewhere simultaneously, the party had no clear ideological direction to pivot toward.
Key Insights
- Stephen Bush argued that Labour's loss of approximately 70% of defended seats made its performance worse in percentage terms than Margaret Thatcher's 1981 midterms — the historical floor for governments that went on to win re-election — making the Blair 1999 comparison cited by Labour spinners misleading.
- Jim Pickard noted that Reform UK had already dropped from 31% to around 26% in national polling over six months, suggesting that its local election dominance does not guarantee sustained general election strength, particularly as voting behaviour differs between local and national contests.
- Jen Williams reported that turnout appeared to be up in many areas, partly attributed to Reform's demonstrated ability to mobilise non-habitual voters — including people who had not voted since the 2016 EU referendum — which she flagged as a structural advantage for Reform beyond its headline vote share.
- Stephen Bush argued that the Conservatives' London bright spots — winning back Westminster and Wandsworth — were concentrated in high-affluence, ethnically diverse boroughs representing a very narrow and unusual electoral niche, and that the party's traditional heartlands were in serious long-term trouble.
- The panel noted that John McDonnell's public call for Starmer to be allowed to stay temporarily was interpreted as a tactical move to buy time for Andy Burnham to secure a route back to Westminster, rather than genuine loyalty to the Prime Minister.
- Jen Williams and Jim Pickard both flagged that Andy Burnham's most-discussed potential by-election seat, St. Helens, had just seen all its Labour councillors lose to Reform overnight, making what was already a risky proposition potentially untenable.
- Stephen Bush observed that the Liberal Democrats had grown their local government presence for eight consecutive years despite a broader anti-centrist political environment — holding especially strongly in seats where they already had MPs — and argued this made a Lib Dem collapse (necessary for any Conservative majority path) look increasingly unlikely.
- Jim Pickard argued that the opinion polling industry faces a structural challenge as Britain moves from a two-party to a multi-party system, pointing out that pollsters gave Labour a 20-point lead two weeks before the 2024 general election when the actual margin was 10 points, and suggesting the problem will worsen as more parties cluster within a few percentage points of each other.
Topics
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