The Iran War is Accelerating the End of Globalism | Jacob Shapiro

Geopolitical analyst Jacob Shapiro explains why he believes the U.S.-Iran war represents a strategic miscalculation that is hastening the end of globalization. Shapiro admits he didn't predict this conflict because he assumed the U.S. understood it would be counterproductive. He argues that while the U.S. and Israel had initial firepower advantages, Iran's asymmetric advantages have asserted themselves after 2-3 weeks - primarily their control of the Strait of Hormuz and ability to deploy cheaper weapons against expensive U.S. military hardware.

Shapiro emphasizes that monitoring ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is the key metric for understanding economic impacts. He reports that shipping is at only 20% of normal levels, with some vessels apparently paying tolls to Iran in yuan. Physical shortages are already appearing in East Asian economies and will spread to Europe if the conflict continues.

The analyst details various supply chain disruptions beyond oil, including LNG (critical for Europe), fertilizers (affecting global food production), and petrochemicals (from basic plastics to specialized products like helium for semiconductors). He warns that many of these supply chains were designed for a globalized world but are now operating in a multipolar reality.

Shapiro argues this conflict represents an acceleration of deglobalization and multipolarity rather than a fundamental shift. Countries will need to develop new certainty mechanisms, potentially including Iranian-controlled tolling systems, rather than relying on U.S. naval guarantees. He believes relatively self-sufficient countries with secure energy access - including the U.S., China, and potentially some European nations - will fare better in this new environment.

Despite short-term disruptions, Shapiro remains optimistic about the long-term global economy, comparing the current era to the 1890s rather than the 1930s. He sees opportunities in technological innovation, the energy transition, and markets positioned to benefit from multipolarity. He argues that while this crisis is significant, the real transformative forces are technological advances in AI, robotics, and the shift to renewable energy sources.