The reason Russia and China can't win at sea - Sarah Paine
Sarah Paine argues that Russia and China lack the necessary prerequisites for maritime dominance, including protection from invasion, dense internal transportation networks, reliable sea access, dense coastal populations, commerce-driven economies, and stable democratic institutions. Despite their maritime ambitions, neither country possesses the full set of conditions required for a successful maritime paradigm.
Summary
Sarah Paine outlines four essential prerequisites for maritime power: immunity from cross-border invasion, a dense internal transportation grid for peacetime commerce, reliable sea egress for wartime naval operations, and a dense coastal population to conduct maritime commerce. When examining these criteria against Russia and China, Paine identifies significant deficiencies in both nations. Both countries face the challenge of having more neighboring nations than almost any other countries, many of which harbor deep resentment toward them. While China does possess a dense coastal population, it is confined to a narrow sea with limited strategic depth. Russia, conversely, lacks a dense northern coastal population and has historically struggled to develop a commerce-driven economy. Under Deng Xiaoping, China began moving toward commercial enterprise, but Xi Jinping's recent policies have favored the crony sector over the private sector, undermining commercial dynamism. Neither nation maintains stable government institutions, as evidenced by the absence of transparent, regular elections and the presence of lifetime dictatorships. Paine concludes that while both China and Russia harbor maritime ambitions, the fundamental question remains whether they genuinely comprehend the comprehensive requirements of a full maritime paradigm.
Key Insights
- Paine identifies four non-negotiable prerequisites for maritime power: invulnerability to cross-border invasion, dense internal transportation networks, reliable sea egress for naval operations, and dense coastal populations to conduct commerce
- Both Russia and China face a structural disadvantage by having more neighboring countries than any other two nations on the planet, with many of those neighbors harboring deep historical resentments
- While China has a dense coastal population, it is geographically limited to a narrow sea, whereas Russia lacks a dense coastal population in the north and has never developed a commerce-driven economy
- Xi Jinping's recent shift in prioritizing the crony sector over the private sector represents a reversal of the commerce-driven economic trajectory that China had begun under Deng Xiaoping
- Paine argues that neither China nor Russia possesses stable government institutions, using transparent regular elections as the litmus test, and notes that lifetime dictatorships fail to meet this criterion
Topics
Transcript
[0:00] You cannot be subject to invasion right across your border or it's over. Secondly, you need a dense internal transportation grid in order to get the goods out in peacetime. You need reliable egress by sea to get the navy out in wartime. And you need a dense coastal population. These are the people who going to be running all the commerce. If you look at these prerequisites [music] and you look at China and Russia today, neither one has the full list, far from it. Both of them have more neighbors than any two other countries on the planet and many of those neighbors don't [0:30] like them at all for excellent reasons. On dense coastal population, yes,…
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