Bitcoin : le marché vient d’envoyer un signal catastrophique
A technical analysis of Bitcoin showing bearish signals despite positive inflation data, with the speaker explaining how Bitcoin's price action diverged from traditional indices after taking out stops. The analyst maintains a bearish outlook for Bitcoin while expecting continued strength in the Nasdaq.
Summary
The video opens with promotional content about OKX offering 8% deposits in USDC, with the speaker encouraging viewers to switch from Binance. The main analysis begins with discussion of yesterday's inflation (Core CPI) figures, which came in line with expectations and reduced the probability of rate hikes in September from 49% to 40%, creating a 60% probability of no rate hike in September and approximately 45% for October. The speaker then shifts focus to Bitcoin's technical setup, noting a significant divergence between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq indices despite the seemingly positive inflation data. The key signal the speaker identifies as "catastrophic" is that Bitcoin came to take stops from the previous day's candle, reversed upward movement, and closed in the red—a pattern that theoretically signals a bearish expansion candle. The speaker compares price action across different exchanges (CME vs. perpetual futures on Hyper Liquide and other platforms), noting that stop-loss orders were triggered on CME but not consistently on perpetual markets, with differences in timing creating distinct chart patterns. The speaker has an existing short position entered at approximately 65,220 and expects Bitcoin to revisit lows around 63,002, with potential further downside to 62,200 or even 61,200, invalidated only if Bitcoin breaks above 65,300. For Ethereum, similar bearish patterns are noted with rejection in fair value gaps, but the analyst states there are no confirmed bearish signals as long as the 1,800 level holds, with potential downside targets ranging from 1,500 to 1,384 dollars if that level breaks. The speaker maintains a bullish bias on traditional indices (Nasdaq) despite Bitcoin weakness, attributing Bitcoin's underperformance to the dollar's monthly value gap maintenance and lack of fear indicators in the VIX.
About this episode
🔥 8% sur tes dépôts avec OKX: https://my.okx.com/deposit-bonus?chan... 🚀 Accès 100% GRATUIT : Rapport COT - VIP - Ma formation complète: https://okx.letronefzco.com/ Le CPI publié hier était totalement conforme aux attentes — tout était déjà pricé. Et pourtant, la réaction sur Bitcoin a été violemment baissière : une prise de liquidité au nord suivie d'un gros mouvement baissier, un schéma classiquement annonciateur d'une expansion baissière plus large. Un retour sous les 62 000 dollars devient possible. Ethereum pourrait tester son niveau majeur des 1 800 dollars — s'il cède, le retournement se confirmerait. Les prochains jours seront décisifs. On analyse la publication du CPI et pourquoi elle ne justifiait pas une telle réaction sur Bitcoin, la structure de Bitcoin après cette prise de liquidité, la décorrélation persistante entre le Nasdaq et Bitcoin avec le dollar en toile de fond, et Ethereum face à son niveau critique des 1 800 dollars. Quand un chiffre macro sort exactement en ligne avec les attentes et que le marché réagit quand même violemment à la baisse, c'est le signal que quelque chose d'autre pilote le prix — pas la donnée elle-même. On vous donne les niveaux exacts qui confirment cette expansion baissière sur Bitcoin et Ethereum dans les prochains jours. --- ⏱️ CHAPITRES 00:00:00 Sommaire Crypto : Inflation US et signal Bitcoin 00:00:11 OKX : 8% sur tes dépôts 00:01:12 Accès à mon VIP offert via OKX 00:01:42 Publication des chiffres de l'inflation 00:02:49 Crypto : Analyse Bitcoin BTC 00:07:39 Nasdaq et Bitcoin décorrélés et Dollar analyse 00:08:11 Crypto : Analyse Ethereum 00:09:47 Outro : Bonus 8% OKX --- 📊 REJOINS-MOI SUR WEEX Jusqu'à 30 000 $ de bonus exclusifs (sans KYC) 👉 https://www.weex.com/fr/register?vipC... Accès 100% gratuit Algos + Mentorship + VIP Weex 👉 https://weex.letronefzco.com/fr/weex-vip 💰 BITGET — Jusqu'à 8 000 $ de bonus 👉 https://bonus.bitget.site/LeTrone --- #bitcoin #ethereum #crypto
Key Insights
- The speaker argues that Bitcoin's recovery of previous day stops followed by a red close is a catastrophic signal indicating high probability of bearish expansion, especially when price closes below the open after retesting highs
- The analyst identifies systematic differences in stop-loss execution between CME and perpetual futures markets, with CME triggering stops more frequently, suggesting different liquidity dynamics and manipulation patterns across venues
- Despite positive inflation data reducing rate hike probabilities, Bitcoin experienced weakness while the Nasdaq continued gaining, demonstrating current market uncorrelation between Bitcoin and traditional equity indices
- The speaker maintains that as long as Bitcoin doesn't break above 65,300, the bearish flow remains intact with target revisits of 63,002 and potential further downside to 62,200 or 61,200
- For Ethereum, a consolidation-manipulation-expansion pattern is not confirmed until the 1,800 level breaks below, which would open potential downside targets between 1,200 and 1,026 dollars
Topics
Transcript
[0:00] The inflation figures came out yesterday, and they were completely in line with expectations. However, this has reduced the chances of increasing entry rates, which is a positive thing. However, Bitcoin is in a bearish pattern. I'll explain everything to you. Just before we begin, I'd like to remind you that OKX offers you 8% on your deposits. If you're still on Binance, now's the time to switch to OKX. Just a reminder, Mika, you didn't get your Binance license, so you can no longer trade on Binance. So you have to go to a platform that is regulated, Mika, and that works out well. OK, that's the case. Right now , he's offering you 8% on your deposits.…
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