DiscussionOpinion

90s Basketball Cards Are EXPLODING…Is Non-Sport About to CRASH?

A podcast episode discussing the explosive growth of 90s basketball cards and concerning price crashes in non-sports cards, particularly Spider-Man's first appearance. The hosts analyze debut card sales, second-tier GOAT card market trends, and debate the sustainability of current collectible card valuations.

Summary

The episode opens with banter about Jeremy (the Snowman) transitioning out of the podcast due to relocating his office, leaving just the hosts and Thor moving forward. They preview the episode's main topics: recent high-profile card sales, emerging trends in basketball card collecting, and warning signs of potential market decline in non-sports cards.

The hosts discuss Pete Crow Armstrong's PSA debut patch card that sold for just over $1 million at Golden Auctions, comparing it unfavorably to three NBA patch cards that sold for $2-8 million. They note the disparity is surprising given Armstrong's superior baseball credentials and MVP contention. The discussion reveals that baseball cards are significantly less valuable than basketball cards at the highest levels, despite Armstrong's professional achievements.

A major segment focuses on the "second-tier GOAT" boom in basketball cards, analyzing three-month growth data from CardLadder. Shaquille O'Neal leads with 139% growth, Kevin Garnett at 121%, and Allen Iverson at 85%, while established stars Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant have declined 35% and 64% respectively. The hosts attribute this trend to collectors in their 40s-50s returning to the hobby with disposable income, particularly gravitating toward 1990s basketball stars. They draw parallels between the 1990s golden era of basketball and the 1950s golden era of baseball, with Michael Jordan playing the role of Mickey Mantle.

A critical segment examines a dramatic price collapse in the Spider-Man first appearance card (Amazing Fantasy #15). Multiple grades show precipitous drops within a single month: PSA 3 dropped 50%, PSA 4 dropped 80%, and PSA 7 dropped 60% from August-October. The hosts suspect market saturation from ungraded copies that were recently graded, validating earlier predictions about potential market flooding. They express concern about this volatility and debate whether to hold or sell such cards.

The podcast addresses altered and trimmed vintage cards, noting a troubling trend where altered cards sell for comparable prices to authentic low-grade versions. A 1963 Pete Rose rookie card that was trimmed sold for $1,500, equivalent to a PSA 3.5 authentic card. The hosts criticize dealers for marketing trimmed cards with misleading language like "XX Mint" and express concern about inexperienced collectors being misled by pricing apps that don't differentiate between altered and authentic cards.

Additional discussion covers the explosion of card shows nationwide (from virtually zero in 2019 to hundreds in 2024), with Pittsburgh hosting 1,000 tables and expanding to 1,200 next year. The hosts note this has democratized dealing but hasn't significantly harmed their business model of buying collections and selling strategically.

Rapid-fire questions cover SGC's declining relevance (predicted to become insignificant within a year), the effectiveness of gold stickers increasing card values beyond grade expectations, ranking legendary garbage-wax era pitchers (Pedro Martinez ranked #1, followed by Randy Johnson and Greg Maddux), and the proliferation of rookie card variations making it difficult for collectors to identify authentic key rookies.

Key Insights

  • Basketball cards at the highest levels command significantly higher prices than baseball cards despite comparable player achievements; three lesser-known NBA cards sold for $2-8 million while Pete Crow Armstrong's debut patch, despite his MVP contention and superior stats, sold for only $1 million
  • The second-tier GOAT boom in basketball cards is driven by collectors aged 40-50 with newfound disposable income returning to collect 1990s stars, with Shaq, Kevin Garnett, and Allen Iverson leading growth while modern superstars Jordan and Kobe decline due to overvaluation
  • Amazing Fantasy #15 (Spider-Man first appearance) experienced a catastrophic 50-80% price collapse within a single month, likely caused by market saturation from previously ungraded copies being graded and flooded into the market
  • Altered and trimmed vintage cards now sell for comparable or higher prices than authentic low-grade versions due to visual appeal preference among collectors, with dealers using misleading terminology like 'XX Mint' to describe trimmed cards
  • SGC's relevance is expected to become insignificant within one year due to $50 grading fees, while alternative graders like MBA are gaining traction among vintage dealers despite reduced market liquidity and collector acceptance

Topics

90s Basketball Card Market BoomDebut Card Sales and ValuationNon-Sports Card Price CollapseSecond-Tier GOAT Card TrendSpider-Man Card Market CrashAltered and Trimmed Card MarketCard Show ProliferationGrading Company CompetitionCollector Demographics and Spending

Transcript

[0:00] Who is that other guy in the picture anyway? Who is this? Is he a nobody? Me, me, probably. Don't know . He makes some stupid joke. Next time I fly...Yeah, this car sucks. Okay, we'll have to cut this out. How are you, Thor? How are you, Chris Seawall? How are you, buddy? Okay, dude. How are you Fine. So people will be asking, where is the Snowman today? [0:30] Do you want to tell them? Yes, Thor and I had a long talk this morning. Yes. We decided to let Jeremy go. Too much has happened, and that 's why he is no longer with us. Now it will be just me and Thor. Yes. So you…

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