Why election officials are worried about prediction markets
Delaware County, Pennsylvania has become one of the first jurisdictions to explicitly prohibit election workers from participating in prediction market activity, amending existing oath requirements to address concerns about conflicts of interest. While prediction market platforms like Polymarket distinguish their activity from traditional betting, election officials argue prediction markets operate identically to gambling and pose a threat to public confidence in elections.
Summary
Delaware County, Pennsylvania, which employs over 2,200 election workers including poll workers and ballot handlers, has implemented new restrictions requiring all workers to agree not to participate in prediction market activity. The county amended its existing oath requirements that previously prohibited workers from having direct or indirect interests in bets or wagers on election outcomes to now explicitly include prediction market trading. Pennsylvania law already contains prohibitions against certain poll workers having interests in election-related wagers, with violations potentially resulting in termination, fines, or misdemeanor charges. However, election officials identified a legal gap: the existing law does not specifically address prediction market activity. Prediction market platforms like Polymarket argue that their activity constitutes "trading" rather than "betting or wagering," attempting to distinguish their business model from traditional gambling. Jim Allen, the election director for Delaware County, rejects this distinction, arguing that prediction markets operate exactly like horse racing or other gambling activities. Officials emphasize that while there is no public evidence that election workers are currently using prediction markets, they have chosen to establish clear rules proactively to prevent potential problems. The underlying concern is that if election workers central to vote counting had financial interests in prediction market outcomes, it could undermine public trust and confidence in the integrity of the election process.
Key Insights
- Delaware County amended its poll worker oath requirements to explicitly prohibit prediction market participation, making it one of the first jurisdictions anywhere to specifically address this issue
- Prediction market platforms like Polymarket distinguish their activity as 'trading' rather than 'betting or wagering' to differentiate themselves from regulated gambling
- Jim Allen, the county election director, argues that despite platforms' claims, prediction markets operate exactly like horse racing and should be treated as gambling
- Pennsylvania law already prohibits certain poll workers from having interests in election-related bets or wagers, with violations punishable by termination, fines, or misdemeanor charges, but does not explicitly mention prediction markets
- Officials are implementing restrictions proactively despite no public evidence of election workers currently using prediction markets, viewing it as preventing a potential problem before it arises
Topics
Transcript
[0:00] More than 2,200 people help run elections in Delaware County, Pennsylvania, including pole workers and people handling ballots. They now have to agree not to participate in prediction market activity. >> We were one of the first jurisdictions anywhere to put a spotlight on this. And we decided we had oaths that all of our pole workers took in the precincts that included promising not to have any interest indirect or direct in any bet or wager. and we we amended that to include prediction market. [0:31] >> Pennsylvania law already bars certain pole workers from having an interest in a bet or wager on an election outcome. This means workers can face termination, fines, or other misdemeanor charges…
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