What Will TV Look Like In 3 Years?
Industry leaders predict that TV will continue its shift toward streaming and live content over the next three years, with cable subscribers declining further and AI enabling personalized, multilingual viewing experiences. Sports remain a critical driver of viewership as one of the few irreplaceable live experiences, while new aggregator services and platforms like Tubi and Roku Channel are expected to gain significant market share.
Summary
This transcript features predictions from ten major media industry executives about the future of television over the next three years, revisiting forecasts made three years prior. On cable decline, experts agree that cable TV subscriber counts will continue dropping annually until sports rights eventually migrate away from cable—a process estimated to take at least a decade. One executive notes that broadcast and cable content is increasingly available through streaming apps and bundles, making it difficult to reverse consumer migration to non-linear platforms, though the industry has historically overestimated the speed of this transition.
Regarding new TV industry standards, personalization emerges as a key theme. Executives predict that within three years, networks will routinely deliver the right content to the right user at the right time, with advertising becoming so hyper-personalized it feels helpful rather than disruptive. Additional standards expected to emerge include simultaneous global day-and-date releases for major shows, increased licensing of podcasters and live streaming content to traditional networks, and AI-driven language translation enabling "content without borders" where viewers watch in their native language.
On government regulation, opinions vary. Some executives believe big tech companies face increased scrutiny from Democrats and may encounter difficulty in major deals, citing industry backlash like the letter from 1,000 Hollywood professionals opposing the Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery merger. However, one expert argues that the convergence between Silicon Valley and Hollywood has already occurred, with tech platforms like YouTube commanding the highest share of living room viewing time.
Sports viewership is predicted to remain strong or grow further. Experts cite improved measurement methodologies—particularly expanded out-of-home data collection—as explaining apparent rating increases. Several executives emphasize that live sports represent one of the last true mass-reach communal experiences in a fragmented media landscape, with the irreplaceable nature of live events driving continued premium valuations.
On new streaming services, executives predict that existing platforms like Tubi, Pluto, and Roku Channel will gain significant adoption rather than entirely new competitors emerging. One executive highlights the opportunity for an aggregator service—similar to how cable originally bundled content—to bundle streaming services at discounted rates. Others mention TikTok's longer-form content trend and niche casting communities, while Disney's investment in Epic Games signals potential convergence between gaming and entertainment/sports content.
Key Insights
- Cable TV subscriber decline will likely continue annually until sports rights eventually disappear from cable, a process estimated to take at least a decade
- Personalized advertising on TV will evolve to feel helpful and non-disruptive rather than intrusive, similar to how social media has refined ad relevance
- Live sports represents one of the last true mass-reach communal experiences in culture, capable of creating shared moments that AI cannot replicate
- AI will enable platforms to offer content without borders by allowing consumers to watch in their native language, removing language barriers
- The convergence between Silicon Valley and Hollywood has already occurred, with tech platforms like YouTube now commanding the highest share of television viewing in the living room
Topics
Transcript
[0:01] You'll have a world where it's content without borders, where AI will allow platforms to allow a consumer to watch the content in their native language. Live works. People want live events. They want live news, and they particularly want live sports. They want things that AI is not going to be able to replicate. [0:34] Alex Sherman: Back in 2023, Lillian and I spoke to some of the biggest names in the media business. We wanted to know what they thought the television industry would look like in three years. Unknown: We heard a lot of predictions, some of which did happen, like media mergers and spinouts, expanded streaming bundles, and the growth of AI. Alex Sherman: Other…
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