The South Texas Races That Could Decide The House
CNBC reports on three competitive South Texas congressional races that could determine House control in the 2026 midterms, focusing on how Latino voters who backed Trump in 2024 are reconsidering their support due to concerns about affordability, immigration enforcement policies, and cost of living. The outcome of these heavily Hispanic districts will serve as a critical bellwether for whether Democrats can persuade Latino voters to return to their party.
Summary
This CNBC report examines the electoral battleground in South Texas, specifically Webb County and Texas's 28th Congressional District, where roughly 95% of the population identifies as Latino or Hispanic. In 2024, over 50% of voters backed President Trump, but emerging concerns are shifting voter sentiment. The report profiles Daniel Lopez, a restaurant owner who voted for Trump three times but is now questioning that loyalty due to the affordability crisis and its impact on his business. Lopez and other voters express concerns about Trump's immigration enforcement policies, citing instances where ICE agents have taken workers with valid permits, creating labor shortages in industries like construction and hospitality. These voters support border security but believe current enforcement has gone too far, directly harming their businesses and communities.
The key race highlighted is between incumbent Democrat Henry Cuellar, who has represented the district for over 20 years, and Republican challenger Judge Tano Tejerina. Despite federal bribery and money laundering charges against him and his wife (later pardoned by Trump in December 2025), Cuellar remains popular with voters and maintains an 11-point lead in August surveys. Cuellar positions himself as understanding district values—supporting oil and gas, homeland security, and gun rights—while Tejerina emphasizes Trump's border security accomplishments and believes redistricting efforts will help Republicans.
The report also examines Congressional District 34, where beverage distributor owner Greg Lamantia—a non-Latino voter whose perspective reflects broader sentiment—expresses frustration with both parties. While he voted for Trump in 2024, he finds Trump's immigration enforcement policies overly aggressive and criticizes Democratic messaging on affordability. Lamantia and other undecided voters want Democrats to move away from socialism messaging and focus on delivering good jobs.
The analysis reveals that Latino voters hold nuanced views on immigration: they wanted stronger border security under Biden but are angered by Trump administration enforcement tactics affecting their communities directly. The primary issue driving voter behavior nationally remains economic—cost of gas, groceries, housing, and healthcare. The report notes that a national spring poll found 25% of Hispanics who voted for Trump in 2024 said they wouldn't vote for him again. The transcript concludes that these South Texas and broader Hispanic districts will provide a critical bellwether for understanding Hispanic voter political evolution in 2026, with turnout and affordability concerns being particularly important in competitive areas like California's Central Valley and South Florida.
Key Insights
- Restaurant owner Daniel Lopez, who voted for Trump three times, is reconsidering his support because the affordability crisis is making him question his loyalty to the president, indicating potential buyer's remorse among business owners
- Latino voters who support border security are experiencing what they see as overly aggressive Trump immigration enforcement, with ICE agents taking workers who have valid permits, creating labor shortages in construction and hospitality industries
- In a national spring poll, 25% of Hispanics who voted for Trump in 2024 said they wouldn't vote for him again, demonstrating significant erosion of his support among this demographic
- Democrat Henry Cuellar, despite facing federal bribery and money laundering charges, remains popular in his district and holds an 11-point lead over his Republican challenger because he has successfully maintained his base through positioning himself on oil, gas, and gun rights issues
- The Texas legislature redrew its congressional map at Trump's urging in 2025, but the redistricting may actually benefit incumbent Democrat Cuellar by more heavily concentrating his Democratic base in the district
Topics
Transcript
[0:00] The wallet is important, but there's also a sense of quality of life. If we see that our federal government is going in the wrong direction or making us uncomfortable, that also is important. This is Webb County, Texas. Roughly 281,000 people live here. Almost 95% of the population identifies as Latino or Hispanic. In 2024, just over 50% of voters backed President Donald Trump. But concerns about affordability and immigration could push Latino voters in this district to back [0:31] Democrats in the upcoming midterm elections. Did you vote for President Trump in 2024? I did the first time. After that, I just I didn't see anything happening. You know, there were so many promises coming. And and…
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