How Kalshi and Polymarket are trying to copy the crypto playbook
Prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi are expanding into perpetual futures contracts, a high-risk derivative product that has become a dominant force in crypto trading. This move puts them in potential competition with established crypto exchanges like Coinbase, Robinhood, and Kraken. One analyst characterizes this expansion as a defensive strategic response rather than an offensive one.
Summary
The video transcript covers the significant strategic expansion of prediction market platforms, particularly Polymarket, into perpetual futures contracts (PERPS). Perpetual futures are a type of derivative that, unlike traditional futures, have no fixed expiration date, allowing traders to hold positions indefinitely as long as sufficient collateral is maintained. This structure has made PERPS one of the most popular and high-volume instruments in the crypto trading world.
The scale of the perp trading market is substantial, with 2025 volume growing nearly 50% to reach $86.2 trillion. Crypto-native exchanges saw even larger growth rates in this segment. Polymarket's announcement to enter this space follows reports that rival Kalshi is also planning to offer crypto trading, including perpetuals, suggesting a broader industry trend among prediction market companies.
This expansion signals a potential convergence between prediction markets and mainstream crypto trading platforms, putting companies like Polymarket and Kalshi into more direct competition with established players such as Coinbase, Robinhood, and Kraken. An analyst quoted in the transcript frames this move as primarily defensive in nature — a response to crypto exchanges encroaching on the prediction market space, rather than a proactive offensive strategy to capture new market share. The broader implication is that prediction market companies are attempting to evolve into comprehensive financial trading platforms, reshaping the landscape of retail trading and crypto competition.
Key Insights
- Polymarket is launching perpetual futures contracts (PERPS), marking a significant departure from its core prediction market business into high-risk crypto derivatives.
- Perpetual futures differ from traditional futures in that they have no fixed expiration date, allowing traders to hold positions indefinitely as long as they maintain sufficient collateral.
- Perp trading volume in 2025 grew almost 50% to reach $86.2 trillion, with crypto-native exchanges seeing even larger growth, underscoring the massive commercial opportunity.
- An analyst argues that Polymarket's expansion into perpetuals is a defensive move in response to crypto exchanges entering the prediction market space, rather than an offensive land-grab strategy.
- If the expansion by Polymarket and Kalshi continues, it could put prediction market platforms into direct competition with major retail trading and crypto companies like Coinbase, Robinhood, and Kraken.
Topics
Transcript
[0:00] Prediction markets are expanding beyond wagers on elections, inflation, and sports. Now, one of the biggest names in the space, Poly Market, says it's launching perpetual futures contracts, also known as PERS. That's a type of high-risk trade that has become one of crypto's biggest businesses. Unlike traditional futures, PERPS don't expire on a fixed date. Traders can keep positions open indefinitely as long as they maintain enough collateral. That structure has helped make per one of the biggest drivers of trading volume in crypto, especially outside the US. Perp [0:30] trading in 2025 grew almost 50% to reach 86.2 trillion in volume and more crypto native exchanges saw even bigger growth. Poly market's move comes just after a…
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